grubbyhat

please please do not buy any coin that has my name or chud[dot]trade attached to it i have not and will not be launching one scammers seem to be taking advantage of the fact that i have had some interactions with toly. pinnning this to my profile for awareness.

@jeremiahscholl @tszzl so there is just no hope for a sovereign europe? i reckon they will go red alert mode soon enough, probably too late, but yeah

@grubbyhat @tszzl It’s impossible for them to remove the red tape. They aren’t a serious competitor if it requires that.

1. if transacting with superintelligent models outside of the boundaries of a lab becomes difficult due to national security / ai safety concerns and so on, it will mean the Coasean boundaries of the labs will grow to encompass all interesting industry, creating a truly cyberpunk chaebol-capitalism type of future, where the goverment sort of runs them but they also sort of run the government 2. as if there weren't already enough reasons to break up your family, leave your home, the Zone of Thought will increase the attractiveness of migrating to try and have your child on american soil, so they can have 1000x the effective brain power of people born elsewhere 3. every country should probably try and either work towards a new ai security pact with the americans immediately or pool every ounce of national resources to try and create their own ASI labs lest you become complete intellectual, economic, and moral vassals to the united states of america and the output byproducts its ASIs (you wont even get to talk to them). if they succeeded (big if) this will imply a more global race and more risk factors than was previously implied by the formerly only "beating china" narrative -- but many will prefer it to the superintelligent monopolar value lock-in 4. the other alternative is to keep the tension between safety and concentration of power at the top of mind and for the government/labs to push for solving it, rather than instrumentalizing all other values to be subservient to minimizing ai harms. insofar as safety means defending properties of the fragile world we like, the diffuse nature of power is one of those properties 5. historically the americans have been really quite Benign about their global public goods hegemony despite the ability to extract significantly more rents than they do, and it makes it easy for people of all stripes to fight for america rather than under it. we probably don't have to, but i hope america overall works towards export promotion of american models rather than export control

@Antichristus @tszzl yep. will be an interesting few years for sure. wonder if this might be the straw that basically unites the uk with the usa.

For sure, I'm quite surprised the Americans have sat back for so long, knowing full well the risks and what could happen, and they seem to have learnt since R1 (which I loved) Europe certainly has this ability, at a nationstate and continental level, some are better at it than others, the intelligence services and governments are far less open and very rarely make things public knowledge about their AI efforts, the UK have been at it for a very long time, the big problem is really rallying society together for some sort of "European AI megaproject" because people are still stuck psychologically in the old ways, we try to forget how much things have changed, it will take real societal shocks to kind of unite people behind something greater, with building our own ASI, maybe in ways that are more efficient, faster and effective, Europe is full of great minds with so much untapped potential because essentially we are too "domesticated" for now, until we need to eat But largely I agree, we are on the backfoot and we cannot afford that, which thankfully is becoming more and more clear to all of us

100% agree with that, but my only thing here is that usa have learnt from what theyve done before where they were too lax. usa has been going full throttle on this for a while basically since r1 right? well earlier, but noticably saying that there might be some form of competition. europe doesnt even have the ability to STEAL weights. let alone make their own ones. just no way for them to mobailise into that without usa noticing and pedal to the metal even moreso?

Think about how rapidly the soviet union industrialised, despite the immense costs when the necessity became clear that they needed to transition rapidly from an agricultural society to an industrial one, imagine something on that scale but with automation and more intelligent management and very novel, creative solutions. The Americans didn't think the Soviets would get a nuke and then they did, that's just one more modern example, but they industrialised faster than any other nation ever and it saved their skin just in time

i just know that no matter how much they feel they can throw at it, it feels like it will always be dwarfed by what the frontier labs burn in a day. even if they do spend the same amount theyre at least 2 years behind with infra and power. i just dont see how a wartime mentality would lead to catching up?

@grubbyhat @tszzl Europe has done great things when new opportunities become clear, I will always have faith that Europe can dominate anything so long as the will and pace is there, it should be an all of society, continental effort as though it is wartime again, it is in many respects

If you are in Europe/UK and you've suddenly realised the US gov. can and actually will restrict access to non Americans and you realise the issues that this presents, I recommend this article strongly if you have a spare 30 mins. You only need to read the first half to understand the opportunity Europe is/has already squandered here. Europe needs to urgently cut the red tape, it may already be too late. but this last week has to be the strongest wake up call we have ever had. France are aiming to completely eliminate all foreign tech companies and become completely sovereign reliant. Very excited to watch a country voluntarily raise a gun to their head an pull the trigger in real time! europe2031.ai

if everyone is relying on that future surplus for their valuation and eventual wealth how does it follow that they can work half as much or am i missing something here? surely in order to maintain that valuation and that extra 500t in wealth we cant half that worker hours? and also along with the other fact that elon causing inflation simply by solving problems? isnt that the beauty of capitalism that someone would see the over subscription to mris for example and realise that the monetary incentive for them to move into the market has become positive negating any inflationary movements by increasing supply?

They didn’t get richer. Their capital went up. Wealth can only be created by the workers calloused hands. The Tesla car is wealth, the shares are capital. For Elon to enjoy his capital as wealth he has to sell the capital to some other investor that expects future surplus form SpaceX, then pay for the output of some worker producing a home or car or plane.

@toly @bourscheid just because productivity rose and the 0.0001% got far far richer, that did not automatically mean that people worked less.

are you not reversing the causality here? i’m saying 2x productivity might create 500 trillionaires. but 500 trillionaires existing doesn’t itself explain how productivity doubles. how is this different from the industrial revolution? productivity more than doubled, inequality widened, both ends got richer. people worked more...

I really don’t understand true greed. If I was worth $1 trillion, you’d have to physically stop me from solving as many of the world’s problems as possible. Everyone would have a home, food on the table, proper healthcare, happiness. I just don’t get it.

again, please actually explain how in actuality 500 more trillionaires = 2x productivity. probably more the other way around that increasing the productivity MIGHT equal 500 trillionaires? but saying arbitrarily that 500 more trillionaires = 2x productivity isnt true. again i revert back to the fact that if there is a falling cost per unit per hour as we move towards a more capital heavy economy, why wont we reflect the industrial revolution economic model where instead of paying 500 workers they can now pay 100 workers the wage of 200 people and increase wealth inequality?

Even if Elon had it in cash and not shares he isn’t hoarding food or mri machines or glps or houses. That stuff has to be created and then delivered to the consumer, and at a rate to cover a lifetime of consumption. All the people to do it have to be paid, all the commodities and machines to consume them have to use energy. The only thing you would do is cause inflation, because there isn’t enough stuff in the world at any given moment. The irony is that if the world had 500 more trillionaires then on average global productivity would be 2x higher and all the things you want for the world would require half the work to deliver.

yeah, capital doesnt equal wealth i agree. but how does that relate to the fact that 500 more trillionaires will half ur work amount. you say extra 500t can only be acheived by doubling productivity, what if that extra 500t just funnels to the top? there is no guarantee that the extra 500t will spawn that 2x? industrial revolution seriously increased wealth inequality, both 0.001% and bottom 90% got richer. but worked the same amount, if not more. how is this different?

@grubbyhat Capital != wealth. Wealth can only be created by the workers hands. It’s the rockets and Tesla cars. The shares are how we measure the amount of wealth the consumer receives

If the world had 500 more trillionaires, all else equal, the typical American family would need to work half as much to enjoy the same standard of living as today.

@louxprt quit that 9-5 £100 a day is like 2 sol

+11 sol ($741 USD) including +12 sol unrealised. Worked my 9-5, Came home and made cash.

@ziwenxu_ @windyCityJump23 why run 2 codex agents when u can run 6 fables...

@windyCityJump23 😂 4 Claude agents and 2 codex agents running right now

I launched a token. It's called GTA-vi-caliber, ticker $B4GTA6. Every reward it earns goes straight into Claude Fable and Codex. Let's get the GTA6 before GTA6.

@solsnatchinfr me please

If make money trading tomorrow ill bless up someone who reposts and replies with a sol 👀

@andrewmccalip @airmama_ and i know you might feel that any way that you reply might be considered an endorsement, which you probably dont want to give. but we are just people who think the platform is cool. sorry for any spam that is coming ur way

@airmama_ @grubbyhat might ban crypto if it messes with the vibes

@andrewmccalip @airmama_ im live streaming it i hold no supply and i am saying how insane ur idea is. im not telling anyone to buy or anyone to sell. iu think the idea is awesome and people are free to trade this in their own way. just a supporter of something cool