neil o’toole

Devs, Think about this when adding Push notifications to your apps

I have three monitors on my desk. The left one shows the order book. The middle one shows Truth Social. The right one shows the investigation queue. On April 21st, the left screen moved first. I am a Senior Surveillance Analyst at a commodities exchange. I have held this position for nineteen years. My job is to monitor trading activity for suspicious patterns and generate compliance reports. I am employee of the quarter. I have a mug. At 19:54 GMT on April 21st, someone placed 4,260 sell orders on Brent crude futures. They did this during post-settlement. The window after the market closes when daily volume is typically in the dozens. Sometimes single digits. Sometimes I watch the screen and nothing happens for forty minutes and I think about whether my daughter is happy. On April 21st, someone placed $430 million in directional bets in 120 seconds during that window. One hundred and twenty seconds. I timed it on my watch because the system clock rounds to the nearest minute and I have found, in nineteen years, that precision matters to no one but me. At 20:10 GMT, the President posted on Truth Social that he was extending the Iran ceasefire. Brent dropped from $100.91 to $96.83. I flagged the trade. I flag a lot of trades. I want to tell you what happens to my flags. My flags go into a system called TRACE. Trade Review and Compliance Evaluation. I did not name it. The system generates a report. The report goes to a committee. The committee has a name I am not allowed to share but I can tell you it meets quarterly and the conference room has a credenza with bottled water that is sparkling because someone once put still water in the room and a managing director sent an email about it that was longer than most of my surveillance reports. The committee reviews my flags. The committee has reviewed all of my flags. Here is the complete record of actions taken on my flags in 2026: Reviewed. That's it. "Reviewed" is a status. In compliance, a status is the absence of an action that has been given a name so it looks like one. Let me show you my flags. March 9th. Someone bet millions on oil falling at 18:29 GMT. Forty-seven minutes later, a CBS reporter posted that the President said the Iran war was "very complete, pretty much." Oil dropped 25%. Forty-seven minutes. I flagged it. March 23rd. Someone sold 5,100 lots of Brent and WTI crude futures between 10:49 and 10:50 GMT. Fourteen minutes later, the President posted on Truth Social about a "COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION" to hostilities. Oil dropped 11%. Over 13,000 contracts traded in sixty seconds after the post. Fourteen minutes. I flagged it. April 7th. Someone established a $950 million short position in oil futures at 19:45 GMT. Three hours later, the President declared a two-week ceasefire. Nine hundred and fifty million dollars. I flagged it. April 17th. Someone placed $760 million in bearish bets twenty minutes before Iran's foreign minister confirmed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen. Seven hundred and sixty million. I flagged it. April 21st. The $430 million. Fifteen minutes. I flagged it. That is $2.1 billion in directional oil bets in April alone. Every one of them landed on the correct side of a presidential announcement. Every one of them was placed in a window so narrow you could measure it in bathroom breaks. I flagged every single one. The CFTC chair told a Congressional committee that his organization has "zero tolerance" for fraud and insider trading. I wrote that quote on a Post-it note and stuck it to my right monitor. The one that shows the investigation queue. The investigation queue has not moved since March. Zero tolerance. Zero staff. Zero budget. Zero prosecutions under the STOCK Act since it was signed in 2012. Fourteen years. The law has existed for fourteen years and has been enforced zero times. In compliance, we call that a compliance rate of one hundred percent. No cases filed means no cases lost. You cannot fail an audit you never conduct. We call that excellence. Last month the White House sent an internal email to staff. I was not on the distribution list but I have read reporting on it and I need you to sit with what I am about to say. The email instructed White House staff not to use insider information to place bets on prediction markets. The White House had to send a memo telling its own employees not to insider-trade. I want you to read that sentence again. Not because the instruction was unclear. Because the instruction was necessary. Because someone in the building looked at the same pattern I have been flagging for months on my three monitors and decided the appropriate response was an email. The President's son sits on the advisory board of Kalshi. He is an investor in Polymarket. Both are prediction markets. Both saw accounts created days before U.S. military action. One account. I cannot stop thinking about this account. It was called "Burdensome-Mix." It was created in December. On January 2nd, it placed $32,500 on Venezuela's president being removed from power. On January 3rd, Maduro was seized by U.S. special forces. Burdensome-Mix collected $436,000. Then it changed its username. Then it disappeared. One account is a coincidence. But there were six. Six accounts were created on Polymarket in February. All bet on U.S. strikes on Iran by the 28th. When the President confirmed the strikes, the six accounts collected $1.2 million between them. Five of the six never placed another bet. The sixth went on to correctly predict the ceasefire date and made another $163,000. My surveillance system logged all of this. My system logs everything. My system does not have opinions and neither do I. I generate reports. The reports go to committees. The committees meet quarterly. Between meetings, the windows get shorter and the bets get larger. March 9th: 47 minutes. March 23rd: 14 minutes. April 17th: 20 minutes. April 21st: 15 minutes. The window is compressing. In March, you had time to make coffee between the trade and the announcement. By April, you had time to send a text. By summer, at this rate, the trade and the announcement will be the same event. The spokesman said any implication that administration officials are engaged in insider trading is "baseless and irresponsible reporting." Then the White House sent the email again. I have been in compliance for nineteen years. I have seen insider trading run out of strip mall offices by men who could not spell "derivative." I have seen pump-and-dump schemes coordinated over WhatsApp by people who used their real names. I have seen a man try to manipulate soybean futures from a Panera Bread. I have never seen $2.1 billion in perfectly timed trades across five presidential announcements in a single month go uninvestigated. But I have also never seen a compliance system work this beautifully. Every trade flagged. Every report filed. Every committee briefed. Every quarterly meeting attended. Bottled water: sparkling. Minutes: distributed. Zero prosecutions. As long as the flags go up and the cases don't, my performance review says I am meeting expectations. I am meeting expectations. The system is meeting expectations. The $2.1 billion is meeting expectations. The fourteen-year-old law with zero prosecutions is meeting expectations. The left screen moves. The middle screen moves. The right screen stays perfectly, immaculately still. In my field, we call this price discovery.

@AerLingus 29 days and still waiting @AerLingus

20 days later still nothing from @AerLingus. Zero follow-up. How hard is it to send a reset password email?!?

3 weeks from May and snow on the mountains in Killarney @CarlowWeather

The latest Economist cover says it all.

Ireland's personal taxation regime is the second worst among 38 peer countries according to the Tax Foundation. High marginal taxes (paid at very modest thresholds) have been in place since 2008. There has been almost no improvement over two decades despite having the resources to do so - a relentless rise in government expenditure has been prioritised year after year. A simple example illustrates how bad it is. The average electrician or plumber working for construction company will be on the top marginal rate, whereby the state takes more of every additional euro than the person gets to keep. If he/she wants to earn self employed income, the government will take more than the worker, and a tax return will have to be filed, involving time and/or accountancy fees. Is it any wonder finding tradespeople is hard?

Nothing is quite as European as demanding that your emergency WW3 meeting must only occur during normal office hours.

What is it with @clubber so zoomed in for camogie matches? Zoom out a bit will ye - Tks!

@elonmusk Some sort of FSD in Ireland (Europe) would be nice

Many more Tesla self-driving V14 improvements still to come, but wide rollout of V14.1 has begun. 14.2 rolls out in a few weeks and then 14.3 a few weeks later, depending on safety testing. There is so much change that we are carefully confirming each one.

$247B. That’s how much the Magnificent Seven contributed to global economic profit over the past four years, an 840% surge since the mid-2000s. Their scale and profitability continue to set the pace for business worldwide. Explore more: mck.co/3V7n2qR

@DavidGillick Get a set of AirPods for live translations - sorted

😂 I’ve 24 hours to brush up on my spanish before this lad is back on the track 😬

@coachshanerice Speed

Touching on a little bit about speed training.

@coachshanerice @threadreaderapp unroll

🧵 Nutrition for GAA Players: The Traffic Light System 🚦 Fuel is performance.
Eat right = train hard, recover fast, avoid injury. But not every day needs the same fuel. Here’s a simple system I use with GAA players to match food to training load 👇

Our lad from Portugal. Forever | Diogo Jota youtu.be/XQ5TA0F-dZc?si… RIP

@dpdireland @ibec_irl Will do, this is not one single instant issue.

@notoole @ibec_irl Hello Neil, Thank you for reaching out to us. We're sorry to hear you have not received your delivery. Please contact us via DM to share your personal details (tracking & name). Kind regards, Team DPD Ireland

Why do @dpdireland persist in this false information? There was no attempt over the last 3 days to deliver. @ibec_irl should seriously consider advising its members. Reviews on google confirm this is not an intermittent issue maps.app.goo.gl/B2zz4GR7KPo6D7… this needs to be addressed!!

Munster Champions 🔴⚪️ #cork

Dear Caoimhin, There is something profoundly dignified in how you’ve carried yourself through these years, the understudy whose performances belied the prefix. In an era where patience is mislabelled as passivity, you proved that waiting for your turn can be a triumph in itself. You arrived at #LFC as a boy, one of those quiet investments that clubs hope might flourish but rarely depend upon. What followed was the emergence of a goalkeeper of such clarity and composure that Anfield grew comfortable in the silence you brought to your penalty area. You gave us clean sheets and clear consciences when Alisson was absent. More than that, you gave us belief that the standards would not drop. Some might measure your legacy in minutes played, in transfer fees not met. But that would be to miss the point. You embodied a principle that Liverpool once made its calling card: readiness. When opportunity knocked, you were already at the door, gloves on, boots laced, nerves settled. It is easy to discuss your move in financial terms, and some will. But those who watched you will not remember £18 million. They will remember you standing unshaken in the Carabao Cup finals, your penalty heroics, your shoulders squared in moments that could have overwhelmed lesser men. You are not leaving because you are unwanted. You are leaving because you were too good to wait forever. And in that, there is nothing but admiration. Football at its best is not a story of endless possession but of the graceful letting go, and you depart not as a backup, but as a man determined to claim the future you have earned. #Brentford are not just signing a goalkeeper. They are inheriting the discipline, the humility, the steel that Liverpool fans came to revere. Should you ever return to Anfield in opposition, expect warmth - before and after, you will be saluted as one of our own, as a man who rose on your own terms. Thank you, Caoimhin. You were ready. You always were. With gratitude and respect, YNWA #Caoimhin #Kelleher 🙏

BREAKING: Tesla just secured a 2-year exemption to run FSD (Supervised) on public roads in Norway 🇳🇴 Not in theory Not in simulation But with real cars, live software and government oversight Approved by Statens vegvesen (Norwegian Road Authority), this test program allows: • FSD v13 active • Modified steering and speed control • Tesla-trained drivers only • On registered EU-type-approved vehicles Full translation in comments. Now what does this mean? 🧵