Polysider 👁

We're excited to introduce our best creation yet — Polysider EYE 👁️ Polysider.com/eye EYE is a @Polymarket wallet autopsy tool revealing any trader's behavior: What he trades, how he trades, and whether his edge is actually printing. Let's break it down step-by-step 🧵

@CarOnPolymarket Totally

It feels good being fully in Cash on Polymarket while the whole crypto market collapses

@thenarrator Pretty impressive vision

there is a billion dollar opportunity in creating a token standard for prediction market positions that plugs into DeFi liquidity pools and enables lending/borrowing against PM shares the core problem: PM positions go to zero at resolution so no lender touches them. a standard that wraps positions with risk metadata (probability, time to resolution, volatility) lets lending protocols price binary risk dynamically instead of avoiding it connect this to the wave of prop firms emerging to fund PM traders a lot of them will need infrastructure to extend capital against trader portfolios and manage binary resolution risk at scale that infrastructure doesn't exist yet and the demand side is already forming. the supply side is wide open. putting this out there for whoever wants to build it

@MrOziPM It's really well written. Very kind & gentle. A rare case in CT.

I am sorry for your loss. Clearly, Polymarket could have and should have done a a bunch of things to prevent this (and other) situations, which harm many users and lead them to lose money. And let me also say: You were not scammed of anything. 1) You write: "Polymarket SPECIFICALLY WAITED until the 8K was filed, to resolve the market." This claim is wrong. In fact, the market is still open and tradable because of the Polymarket governance that keeps all the markets open while a resolution dispute is in progress, which takes 3 days typically. Is it a bad system? Yes. Does it create an impression for unfamiliar people that new evidence is permissible? Yes. But, no, they did not do anything specifically to keep it open. It's just their crappy system. And you were unfamiliar with it. If anything, they should've done something specifically to close the market, rather than defaulting to their typical mechanism. 2) You write: "Their "sharps" could fill 6-figures against people betting on a confirmed outcome, then they could add a new rule and scam all the newcomers." It is clearly Polymarket's fault that to this day they haven't created and published resolution guidelines. It is their fault that experienced users, like myself, often benefit from knowing the unwritten governance and resolution precedents at the expense of users less familiar with them, like yourself. But there was no new rule created. With some exceptions, which are usually (but not always) written into the rules, evidence published after the market's end date cannot be taken into account. Otherwise, you would never know when a market is resolvable. I was buying No-shares before the filing was revealed on Monday morning at 80-90c precisely because of that. The market was already effectively dead, if you only knew the unwritten rules. Now, obviously, they should make that very clear, e.g. by putting a big red banner on markets that pass their end date informing users that new evidence doesn't count and that the market is in a resolution phase only. Or, they could block trading after market's resolution date. Many options. So, while I cannot blame you for not knowing the precedents and for being fooled by the market being seemingly "open" for new evidence, it is not true that new rules were added post-factum. You were simply unaware of them. 3) You write: "Now - the fact that people were willing to give me 20-25c on the dollar for an event that was 100% certain was certainly a red flag. But I had checked and re-checked the rules." You were willing to risk $0.5m on the assumption that your counterparties were simply giving you free money. I judge that to be a grave mistake of overconfidence. A more prudent approach would've been to engage with your counterparties and try to understand why they're willing to bet so much against you. +++ So while I agree that Polymarket's communication about resolution mechanics is very inadequate and leads honest well-reasoning people like you to lose money, I would caution against going into conspiratory theories of Polymarket intentionally keeping the market open and sharps adding new rules. If you want to continue trading, I'd advise you to join one of the prediction market trading communities. Checking in with some fellow traders could've saved you $0.5m here. In our PredictLab Discord, we actively discussed the market as it went and most of us decided to bet on No because of the existing clarification precedents for similar situations. I hope you will win it back one day.

That's Polysider.com/EYE — and it's now completely free. Log in with Telegram, paste a wallet, and see what most traders are hiding behind their P/L number. Which wallet are you checking first? 👁️

Finally: PnL & Max Drawdown. Max drawdown 28.1%. Avg major drawdown 17.7%. Currently sitting at -13.9% from peak. But the overall curve is unmistakable — steady compounding grind from $5k to $21.9k over 152 days. Full risk profile in one chart. 👁️

We just removed the paywall from Polysider EYE. 🔥 Complete wallet autopsy on any @Polymarket trader — archetype, 12 stat cards, behavior charts, drawdown profile. All of it. Free. Here's what you're getting — using @PMTraderAdam's wallet as the example 🧵

@androolloyd I know one — perpetual trading isn't good for one's health (both physical and mental).

I haven't seen a single good argument on why you shouldn't use Hyperliquid.

Read the full autopsy report on this wallet on Eye: polysider.com/eye/0x38e2f5d6…

Hmm, how to put it gently? This wallet is kinda mediocre: +$4k PnL on $448k of buy vol. ~ 1% ROI Profit Factor = 1.2 — also poor And it's a really fast scalper — p95 Hold time = 3 min — copying at that speed is risky! PnL curve is good though.

Yeah, this wallet isn't bad! Sure, the returns aren't great ($18k PnL on $338k buy vol ~ 5% ROI), but they're very predictable: 1) Max drawdown = 40%, and that was early on — there's basically none now. 2) Profit factor = 10 — speaks for itself. Overall, it's a Tier C-B copytrade wallet, just with modest returns. Read the full autopsy reports here: polysider.com/eye/0x900e2ba4…

All due respect, but this "junkbonds" wallet is actually junk: polysider.com/eye/0xdaad6f96… +$95k PnL on $2.91M of buy vol. ~ 3% ROI... It is almost completely flat for 550 days! The only thing he outperformed is Ethereum. 💀

This scalper wallet is actually good! It can even be considered a copytrade leader: +$35k PnL on $85k buy vol. = 40% ROI Profit factor = 3.2 However, it has some drawbacks: P95 Hold = 5 min (latency can ruin results) Only 18 days old — not battle-tested enough Recency = 0.00x (it's dormant this week) Read the full autopsy here: #zone=0" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polysider.com/eye/0x4c181eb7…

Polysider EYE wallet autopsy tool is now totally free! Come and see its power: Polysider.com/EYE 👁️