Naïve Bae

@kareem_carr Modern software engineers telling Claude Code to proceed

I keep hearing that software engineers don’t write much code anymore and it’s mostly AI now. Can any software engineers confirm how true this is? Do you just drink coffee and watch Claude code all day now?

This is a type of chart crime: when you plot value tuples from a timeseries on a 2D scatter plot like this as if they were independent samples, you are leveraging temporal autocorrelation to magnify any existing x/y correlation and hide the actual variance. You're also hiding temporal distribution drift (the typical value range for x and y, and the relation between them, change over long periods)

@katherinista @noampomsky That makes sense!

@robertsd @noampomsky And being overly reasonable is actually something that many women w/ADHD struggle with bc early on they heard “your emotions are too big” but then they over-corrected & learned to keep everything inside, assuming they were the problem- but people w/o ADHD can be annoying too!

I used to prioritize being infinitely reasonable in every situation and I am so much happier now that I’m willing to say “why the fuck would you do that, I’m annoyed at you” even though it’s sometimes really hard!!

@enigmasum @noampomsky Nice to see you opining on topics you are an expert on. Will you be weighing in on AI or the Middle East conflict today as well?

@robertsd @noampomsky rejection sensitive dysphoria lmaooo gtf outta here

@Illyriannft @JoelKatz @Xrplmen @MasonVersluis He’s a legend

@JoelKatz @Xrplmen @robertsd @MasonVersluis This might be by far one of your best post/response David, you make me proud to be an Xrp holder

Genuine question for hardcore $XRP holders: Why would global banks choose to use XRP and in turn, potentially boost its price through the roof, when Ripple holds 34B tokens? If it goes to the wild prices everyone yaps about, Ripple would be the most valuable financial institution in the world. Do we really think banks want to make that happen for the Ripple company’s story? Think about global banks being approached to use XRP, they will do extreme due diligence before using a “cryptocurrency asset” to solve traditional banking by. They will see alllll the retail holders, all the weird riddles, all the theories, ripples holdings , do you think they would accept the proposition to use XRP? Is the utility and benefit to them big enough to just ignore certain things?

Thanks for taking the time to answer this, and it’s a great answer. I always had another question from all the way back in the xRapid days: in order for that product to work it seems like you’d need a balance between demand for flows, but in the real world it’s mostly one way - more USD getting sent to Mexico than vice versa, for example. I never really heard the argument for how this works? Where does the persistent Mexican peso bid for XRP come from to balance this?

There are some cases where volatility is a huge problem and so a stablecoin is a better choice than a cryptocurrency. Similarly there are some cases where a regulated asset with a trusted counterparty is a benefit. But cryptocurrencies have three big advantages over stablecoins. 1) A stablecoin can only be stable with respect to one currency and a stablecoin denominated in the fiat you need it to be stable relative to may not exist with the qualities you want. Applications that involve multiple jurisdictions with different native fiats don't benefit as much from the stability. 2) A stablecoin can be frozen or clawed back by its issuer. Ripple, for example, can't refuse a US court order. And the US courts may decide that other things matter more than you do even if you've done nothing wrong. For example, if some country asserts that you've supported terrorism and claims secret evidence, is a US court going to protect you even if you claim that your only support for terrorism was in the form of speech criticizing that government's human rights record? Do we expect AI agents to defend themselves in courts? Do you want to have to? 3) For most cryptocurrencies most of the time, the upside is worth more than the downside. So if you don't need stability, you might prefer a cryptocurrency over a stablecoin for many applications. If I had to lock up some money in an escrow for a year, I might well prefer XRP or BTC to USD because I know USD isn't going up.

@JoelKatz @MasonVersluis A better question might be, is this technology still relevant in the age of stablecoins?

@MasonVersluis "Yeah, this makes business sense for us to do and would make us money, but we don't want to do it because it also makes this other company money."

@fallacyalarm 🤣🤣🤣

@robertsd now i would REALLY be embarrassed about holding that :D

What investment idea do you have that you are too embarrassed to say publicly? It's probably a good idea you should pursue further. How about these: - buy $ORCL - buy $TLT - buy real estate - short $GOOG - short $JPM - bet on white collar work - buy $CVNA - hold USD - buy $NKE - buy $SBUX

Treasury spends $1.2tn on interest, 60% of the deficit. If the Fed cut rates to zero and the Treasury issued only bills, this could be pushed to near zero. Doesn't even need QE. Then you have $800bn left. Half of that can be raised via tariffs. There, I fixed the deficit for you. You might not like the consequences for asset prices though.

@ARK_Funds But what are your convictions and fundamentals analysis worth? QQQ has outperformed ARKK, with double the return since 2014.

ARK doesn't limit positions to arbitrary index weightings. We allocate holdings based on conviction, fundamentals, and long-term potential. Discover the ARK difference: ark-funds.com/our-etfs

@fallacyalarm Hey I like this spicy Rene we are seeing tonight 🌶️ 🔥

Early '21 was peak renewable energy. Right move was to bet on oil. Late '23 was peak GLP-1. Many GLP-1 losers outperformed since. Today, AI predicts the death of the white collar worker. Time to bet on them? Next pitch is as contrarian as one can be. fallacyalarm.com

@ZeroHedge_ It is actually the same as ever. Do not expect to get through life by memorizing facts. Think for yourself, learn how things work, and practice adapting. Nothing is guaranteed

Here’s a question I have for parents. How do you guide your kids right now with regards to school and college when it comes to career path in the light of everything going on with AI? What are you telling them to do? I’m not a parent, but I would like to be oneday. I often think about questions like this. Especially lately

@Sykodelic_ They will know why you were pounding the table

The macro shift is underway. Whilst everyone is looking the wrong way. I have written a super in-depth article on this today for my subscribers, covering exactly what is happening. I have made this one available to read on a freE trial, so if you want to check out, the link is below.

@TonySeverinoCMT Wouldn’t we see the same thing if this cycle just happened to get stretched?

Imaging thinking cycles don't work or that Bitcoin's 4-year cycle is dead What you're feeling is the influence of a larger cycle coming to an end The 4-year is just an intra-cycle harmonic, of a much larger cycle that's concluding

@fallacyalarm With eSLR change and big beautiful bill spending? Is it because these aren’t the right mechanisms or is it because the aren’t big enough impact?

the time has come

Its starting to happen. I am already seeing the bears say... "Loading some spot altcoins here for a push higher... BUT I am still mega bearish obviously" Then when we keep going higher they will raise their targets. Once that fails, they will say they printed on altcoins and called it. At $60k's everyone was so confident we were going lower. Now, no one is saying anything. That is how it goes, always. And that is why you ignore overly bearish sentiment at oversold lows. $35k was being thrown around everywhere. And right now, Bitcoin just closed back inside its HTF structure. Where are the $35k calls now? This is not me saying we will never drop again... It is me highlighting how sentiment and mood shifts around peoples predicitions. You can call me wrong sometimes... But you cannot call me a flip flopper. I have never wavered and will not waiver until the job is done or I am invalidated.

@Sykodelic_ Volume don’t lie

This is the most unexpected outcome. Everyone is expecting down next, new lows, and the 4 year cycle to play out. But it is my view that this is what is coming next. For all the reasons I have covered over the last months, this is what I believe is next. That this is a very different cycle, because of the overall economic/business/liquidity cycle being different. I have provided unending pieces of data that backs this up, and this is the hill I will die on. If/when we reclaim $74k, it will not just be a small bear market rally. It will be a reclaim of the HTF structure, which will confirm the drop to $60k as a deviation, and confirm the expanded flat pattern that is finalising here. These are very strong reversal patterns that make new highs in shot order. We are at crunch time now. If we make new sustained lows, this will be invalidated. But as of now, this is still in play, and the next few weeks will show us the way. I have my positions. I have my thesis. And I am ready.

@Sykodelic_ Your charts are a lighthouse in a sea of bear porn. Thank you for helping the HODLers see the light

No one wants to believe this. But we now have full bullish alignment for Alts. And this is right at the time that pretty much 100% of people have declared them dead forever. It is not a coincidence. I understand alts have been a tricky and disappointing asset class for many... But we must not let feeling get in the way of objective data. This bullish alignment we have now confirmed has only happened three times before. It is when the 1month RSI ticks up and RSI trend changes. For deeper analysis, the 1M RSI has been bearish since May 2024, and it has now flipped bullish. Each time these conditions have happened it has lead to an average of 430 days of OTHERS expansion. I have marked it all very clearly for you on the chart. This isn't hopium, this is high time frame, highly bullish and objective data, with a 100% track record. Data > Feelings Any time there was any asset class at the lows but changing trend... There will be a huge amount of people calling it dead. That is just the way it goes. To be a successful investor you have to drown out that noise and find your own conviction against the crowd.