@EMopportunities Nice trade. Seems like a lot of the hard yards are done, bonds higher if gov stays course on fiscal consolidation and maintain reform momentum.
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rm
44 posts
🇪🇨 Ecuador : Staff-level agreement includes proposed increase of $1b in financial assistance
Just closed >2/3 of my exposure today. Tks Ecuador for this rally and see you soon.
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@EMopportunities We like the 51s and put a buy on last week. We thought the name had been over sold
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@rocket_riz I don’t have strong views on Pakistan tbh. Egypt is more understandable to me haha.
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🇪🇬 Egypt : I’m back 🤞. Decent space have been created.
Tbh I came back couple of months ago into really short term papers (2026). I started to switch into the long end part of the curve since the beginning of the month enjoying recent volatility.
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
🇪🇬 Egypt : Here we go, Egypt is trading inside IVY€ and in line with Nigeria and Senegal… Good luck for people buying bonds at these levels.
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Pak Tbills: hearing a lot of recent positive noise around Pk lcl, and have seen inflows. Potenial for further yield compression on shrt end; but we think more attrac carry opps in egp, turkey... in FX adjusted terms. Fx unattractive. Would exercise bullish view via $ bonds
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@CharlieTTEcon Lots of people like Pakistan local, prayers are with you for the budget (should be fine)
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I’m so conventional that my favourite fixed income trades (Egypt and Nigeria local, and Pakistan) are the favourite trades of all the panellists at this conference
Worse still, I even love the interval music this 100 year old investment bank plays - La Femme d’argent by Air
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@EMopportunities Lolll very optimistic, were one of the conditions a miracle
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🇱🇧 Lebanon : interestingly over the last few days 2 IBs moved to constructive on Lebanon with one seeing RV around 15-20cts (under some conditions).
I had a target at 8 but 15-20 is ok haha
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
🇱🇧 Lebanon : Added new exposure on Lebanon at 6 1/8 today. I like the risk reward of the trade. I’m expecting strong upside on it over the next 12 months. In the meantime, fasten your seat belts.
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Mozam - constructive. Has traded sideways this year, and been resilient in the face of the recent sell-off. Positive view based on the expected onset of LNG production, strong commitment to IMF, and improving fiscal and, strong ability to pay relative to reserves (step up in 28)
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@EMopportunities Did you get any indication there is opportunity for longer term reform momentum, we have our meeting with them later in the week? 25s have traded strong for a while on the view Fx reserves are sufficient to retire them
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🇹🇳 Tunisia : Just left the IMF meeting. Still suprised to see investors so much confident to buy a bonds at 93 cash price (2025) and look so reluctant to be exposed to bonds at 55 cash price (2031). Especially for these kind of credit.
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@EMopportunities I like, there are not many pure optionality plays in the sov space at single digit price. Although you might see 4, before you see 8 though!!
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🇱🇧 Lebanon : Added new exposure on Lebanon at 6 1/8 today. I like the risk reward of the trade. I’m expecting strong upside on it over the next 12 months. In the meantime, fasten your seat belts.
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There are GOOD trades, and then there are GREAT trades. This one was GREAT. +24pts pnl + carry in 4months on an RV that was default neutral all the way down to 31c.
EM Credit Hedge Fund@em_credit_fund
Want to get long Egypt but be able to sleep at night? Long 2x Egypt 8.5% 47s @ 51.5 or 16.86% yield Short 1x Egypt 7.5% 27s @ 71.5 or 19.55% yield Long carry, long CS01 and breakeven on default is circa 31c (ignoring accrued) Attached is the graph of the trade
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EGYPT ON A RIP
33's are up 17.2% cash terms since last wk, and spreads have contracted 250bps
Long end looking similar
From valuation perspective bonds look far less attractive.Egp48s now trade just 110bps wide of Ken48s, and 290bps inside Pak51s
Patrick Downgrades 48s: HOLD
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