🇺🇦 Ukraine/Metinvest : Billionaire Rinat Akhmetov bought a luxury apartment in Monaco's Mareterra district for €471 million.
Good to see that bonds’ collateral is cleverly invested
English
EMopportunities
752 posts
EMopportunities
@EMopportunities
EM credit & rates PM. Opportunistic management style with large expertise on restructuring stories. (no investment advice or recommendations, my own view)
Genève, Suisse Katılım Kasım 2016
189 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
@Credit_HY @spaghettilisbon Bulgarian Russia-Sympathizer Radev Is Heading for Election Win
English
@spaghettilisbon @EMopportunities 38s look ok, no? Elections this weekend too - and if they get a govt finally can print
English
🇷🇴 Romania : as a famous French philosopher said : « non mais allo quoi ».
Romania is now trading in line with Ivy…
English
@spaghettilisbon I’m covering the whole EM universe so yes. Sometimes interesting there?
English
@Quantimental Lebanon traded down 31 → 23 on Iran escalation, pure macro contamination, not idiosyncratic.
Positioning for mean reversion via easing in Iran risk rather than a Lebanon-specific call.
English
@EMopportunities Why LEBAN now ? Look what they are doing to Beirut. Non stop bombingall morning in heavily dense areas. Some saying 300-500 dead.. Can Lebanon be looked at until we know how bad it will get?
English
Global EM : As I said some days ago, I decided to redeploy cash into selective names : GCC RE (Omnyat (entry 80 5/8),…), Egypt, Ukraine, Lebanon, Qatar/KSA, Romania & Turkey
On CDS 70% —> 40%
Cash&Equivalant : 35%-40% —> 20%
Think Leban should remain attractive with a discount
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
Global EM : I started to redeploy cash over the last 4-5 days to benefit from low liquidity. Cash & equivalent : 21%. Redeploy on really specific names not broadly CDS : 45-50% (I didn’t roll the EM cdx as didn’t wanted to restrike wider due to the change of composition)
English
@robhawcroft Think so. Just saying that I’m praying for lower levers but not sure if I will be able to reach them haha
English
@EMopportunities Mozambique should be a reprofile with an LNG toggle
English
Global EM : I started to redeploy cash over the last 4-5 days to benefit from low liquidity.
Cash & equivalent : 21%. Redeploy on really specific names not broadly
CDS : 45-50% (I didn’t roll the EM cdx as didn’t wanted to restrike wider due to the change of composition)
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
Global EM: Raised cash to ~30–35%. Shifted Main cds exposure into Xover. I hedge ~70% of the book with CDS. Significantly lower beta. Market complacency looks stretched here.
English
@robhawcroft So far no. Mozam high likelihood to restructure that’s why I hope for better entry point. Senegal same same
English
🇲🇿 Mozambique : Here we go. Let’s see in this global context where bonds will stabilize.
English
Global EM : EM corporate PMs pitching resilience thanks to lower duration, while Xover/CDX HY are blowing out 10bps per day, equities starting to move in correction territory and recession knocking on the door. Feels like peak confidence before the trap
GIF
English
@EMopportunities Just buy EMAAR equity and at worse end up with a sea front condo.
English
@robhawcroft Haha no but to illustrate a rebound coming from ME conflict. Ofc Senegal or Mozambique are way cheaper. But for both I would like to buy at lower price
English
@EMopportunities Bro that is chart crime that Brad or Robin would be proud of.
English
@EMopportunities If we get a rebound why wouldn't you want to own the cheapest African paper?
English
@robhawcroft In case of rebound :
- Mozam/Senegal drop c.10% vs pre war
- Qatar drop 10% too
Well I know which horse to choose in case of rebound 😉
English
🇻🇪 Venezuela: Decent move since then. We just break the 50cts levels. +460% pnl on venez bonds and 800% on pdvsa. Will be interesting to see where this goes.
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
Venezuela is maybe your best hedge against an oil price at $150
English
Global EM : I just circled the current widening in case people don’t succeed to see it
EMopportunities@EMopportunities
Global EM: Raised cash to ~30–35%. Shifted Main cds exposure into Xover. I hedge ~70% of the book with CDS. Significantly lower beta. Market complacency looks stretched here.
English
EMopportunities retweetledi
BITCOIN CRASH BATTERS EL SALVADOR, IMPERILS IMF DEAL
Bitcoin’s plunge has slashed the value of El Salvador’s holdings by roughly $300 million, exposing the risks of President Bukele’s crypto bet and shaking the country’s debt markets.
Despite the losses, Bukele keeps buying Bitcoin, alarming investors and complicating talks over a $1.4 billion IMF loan. Credit risk has jumped, bonds have swung, and analysts warn that continued crypto purchases and delayed pension reforms could derail IMF support — a key pillar for El Salvador’s finances.
With major debt payments looming, Bukele’s Bitcoin gamble is now colliding head-on with the country’s fiscal stability.
English
When I’m seeing PM taking profit on their xover after 1bp widening
GIF
English