nassim

@choffstein so true bestie

i was so fooled-by-randomness pilled in my youth that even when i have an investment thesis and it plays out *exactly* how I thought it would – and I profit from it – i still end up thinking, "that was probably luck."

@0xaporia @veilGazer it do be like that

@veilGazer @smoltaleb it’s my alt

I always find it funny when people post a black swan. The moment you post it, it stops being one. Black swans are, by nature, only recognized during or after the fact. Once you call it out, you're just describing a known tail risk.

The risk of a Black Swan event is at 57% currently. I will update my calculations in the coming days which depend on real time data, including the CPI data we will see later today

🚨 🚨 🚨 1,000,000 #BTC  (95,015,076,000 USD) transferred from Satoshi’s wallet to Coinbase

@TheRealPlanC p-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone.

It's amusing that people argue this is random. The p-value is so low that it falls below computational limits, indicating an "effectively 0%" probability of randomness. #BTC Math represents objective truth. If you want to debate it, you need to use mathematical arguments. The "price range" of the #Bitcoin power law is not as wide as some people think or claim. The range is essentially power law support, with the potential for temporary deviation to varying degrees above support, but in a way that seems to be diminishing over time.

@rookietrader92 @smolpowell always here to help (don’t text me or ask for support)

@smoltaleb @smolpowell Needed this

if you’re down a lot today and feel depressed, please remember: - it can and will get a lot worse - my DMs remain close, don’t text me - you’re an imbecile and I’m smart

good morning cryptocurrency enthusiasts, what did I miss?

@poordart let’s go

🤝

@mikealfred have you considered that your quant fren might be really bad at what he does?

My friend is a quant at one of the largest hedge funds globally. The PMs keep asking his team to re-run their Bitcoin model because no matter how many times they adjust it, it predicts a terminal BTC price over $10M per coin. They don’t know whether to go all in or shut down

@willoptions @CL207 tend to agree

someone was selling flood risk insurance to ppl that live in a desert thinking hes a genius and now hes getting liquidated

march 2020 was a white swan. yesterday’s dump was whiter than gated neighborhoods in central California. prepare for the worst (you can’t)

the noblest of creatures

swan hasn’t even hit yet

very fragile ino

@100trillionUSD have you tried making your model actually useful?

@MuroCrypto to all haters (which can’t see this since you have them blocked because you can’t handle criticism) 👍

To all haters, this is what I own, 749M coins, pooled the other 250M on Raydium, all these 749 will go for exchange listings like WIF, everything will be documented, if anything remains, we might do a charity, the rest will all be burned, that’s the plan, let them hate