Plan C

How does simply having an alternative thesis about a mid-cycle correction and an extended double-peak cycle make me a permabull? I also said many times in 2025 that I would not be surprised to see a 30% drawdown from the headwind of the 4-year cycle narrative. Yes, I got it wrong as far as the degree of the drawdown and the stickiness of the 4-year cycle, but I am certainly not a permabull. Labeling other people's views is odd. @ColinTCrypto

This guy @Bariksis trolled me on almost every post I made in the past few months where I said we were likely in a bear market. He said I was wrong so many times that I lost count. He is the ultimate Permabull, along with guys like @Sykodelic_, @TheRealPlanC and many others. Well, let's revisit this. BTC just put in a new low, below $60k. Bear market confirmation doesn't get any stronger. It was not I who was wrong. Sykodelic made posts "calling me out" as well, claiming we were still in a bull market. Maybe it's a good time to acknowledge this like any respectable person would-- especially @bariksis who came after me so many times in the comments section, and @Sykodelic_ who "called me out" wrongly.

@Stumitchell60 Thanks! 🤜🤛

@TheRealPlanC Congrats 👌

Honored to be giving a keynote at the Prague Bitcoin Conference about the Bitcoin Quantile Framework and the Saylor Curve, as well as a panel presentation. This is the first Bitcoin conference I've ever been to, and I'll be showing my face. If you can make it, come say hi! I'll be the 6'6, jacked dude 🤣 Use Promo Code: C for a 10% discount when you register. June 11-13.

@MadWaloo Appreciate that 🤝

@TheRealPlanC Congrats! Wishing you all the best!

@Bobby_1111888 We share the same thesis. 🤝 Not many with this view.

This will be looked at as one of the biggest head fakes in the history of markets. Correct, right in line with the four-year cycle, during Q4 of 2025, to get the majority to think it's still valid, then completely front-run it as the macro aligns with the business cycle while the masses wait for their beloved 2028 halving event. It's masterful. The amount of capital that will be left sidelined and chasing will be historic. This has been my thesis for quite some time.

If you are cheering for the 4-year cycle to play out again, you are cheering against Bitcoin. The 4-year cycle is one of the worst things long-term for Bitcoin's adoption and reaching its true potential as a global asset. If Bitcoin is perceived as a speculative asset that follows some magical 4-year cycle, it will remain a sideshow speculative asset. For Bitcoin to remain something that everyone sells or trades every 4 years for no reason other than that 4 years have passed is a horrible narrative.

Also, I've said this same idea many times over the last 4 to 5 months on the weekly show I do. I've been very consistent that I don't think the 4-year cycle is a good narrative for Bitcoin, at least not as one of its dominant narratives. The point is I've said this many times, so it has nothing to do with how things look now or with trying to change narratives. To frame it that way isn't fair.

To be clear: I'm not trying to shift any narratives, and I have no problem being wrong. If Bitcoin bottoms out at 60%+ in Q4 of 2026, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. I've been saying for a while now that we'd have a 50% to 60% correction, not the 80%+ we saw in the past. So far that's been right, but we're also less than halfway through the year. I make bold calls based on what I truly believe makes the most logical sense. If I am wrong, I will be the first to admit that.

By "not debatable" I didn't mean which cycle Bitcoin will follow. 4-year havening cycle or buisness cycle. That's probabilistic. The lower-probability event can happen, and no one has a crystal ball. I meant the existence of the statistical correlation itself, not the outcome. I'm not saying anyone who follows the 4-year cycle is anti-Bitcoin. I never said that, or at least it wasn't my intention if it came across that way. I'm saying the narrative itself isn't a great one for Bitcoin to have attached to it, and it will keep it in the speculative sideshow basket of asset classes, versus other asset classes that have much healthier narratives. I stand behind my point. But perhaps the way I said it was poorly worded. As of now, Bitcoin has only dropped 50% on daily closes from the all-time high, and the February low still holds. Nothing like the 80%+ drawdowns of past cycles. If we correct 60%+ and bottom out in Q4, I'll be the first to admit I was wrong. But 2026 isn't even half over yet.

Bitcoin has gone down for almost 8 months now, and the four year cycle is playing out. How is the "jury still out?" Honestly, after promoting you a few days ago, I'm disappointed that you thought it was wise to tell your followers that anyone pro "four year cycle" is cheering against Bitcoin. The people who got it right are not "anti Bitcoin." They just were trying to help people understand the way the cycles work. I tried telling you months ago and you told me I was wrong and that it was "not even debatable." It's ok to be wrong about markets. But it's not ok to pretend that people who were right are "anti Bitcoin" just because you don't want to face the reality that your views did not play out. x.com/TheRealPlanC/s…

@benjamincowen By "prevalent" I was referring to the pervasiveness of the narrative among people who hold the asset. How commonly discussed is the 4-year S&P cycle, and how many people sell their S&P 500 every 4 years simply because it's been 4 years?

How is the pattern more prevalent for BTC? SPX has gone through four year cycles for decades before BTC was even created. No one is saying you have to sell anything. We are just saying to expect major lows to occur in BTC approximately every four years. You are saying believing in that is "anti-BTC" People who believe stocks bottom every 4 years are not "anti-stocks." Markets are allowed to go down sometimes. I hope you reconsider your view. Especially considering that you told people that my views were dead wrong coming into this year. BTC did not follow the ISM. It did not follow M2. It did not follow any of that stuff. How long until we can admit maybe the four year cycle has some validity? If it ever breaks, it would probably be for a bad reason, not a good reason. So I would say to root against the 4 year cycle would actually be more detrimental than rooting for it.

Not the same thing. The narrative with the S&P is set-it-and-forget-it for the most part. Long-term retirement allocation, etc. To the extent there is any cyclical pattern with the S&P 500, the prevalence of that narrative is minor in comparison to Bitcoin, where this 4-year clockwork "sell it and buy back a year later" narrative is much more pervasive and much more of a self-fulfilling prophecy. The two aren't equivalent, and I do think it's less than ideal for everyone to assume the move is to sell Bitcoin every 4 years rather than invest and allocate for the long term. This narrative affects allocators of all sizes.

@TheRealPlanC S&P 500 also has a history of bottoming every 4 years. Does that make it bad to own?

@towardsfi1 Nope.

@TheRealPlanC If 4-year cycle plays out your model breaks, I’m guessing?

@JaredMclaurin Happy to be a long-term investor in Bitcoin, it has worked out very well for me and will continue to work out very well.

@TheRealPlanC We just gonna pretend the stock market hasn’t moved in 4-year cycles many, many times through the decades? Rhetoric like this only comes from bagholders straight up

@FBiadu98 As of now, that call is still correct. We haven't gone any lower.

@TheRealPlanC Month ago or so you said that BTC bottom out now is not ?

A $3,000+ bounce off its 24-hour low of $61,336, did Bitcoin just wick down to a double-bottom capitulation, similar to the $59,000–$60,000 capitulation low from almost exactly four months ago? If this $61,336 low holds and Bitcoin can reclaim $70,000, the odds of the bottom being in would rise significantly.

@chrisjagger 100%

@TheRealPlanC What happened today felt so similar what happened in February.

New Bitcoin Uncharted! We cover a ton in 25 minutes, including a deep dive into the new Saylor Curve dashboard.

@btcanalytica Love your premature celebration. Way too early to call. Still 50/50 at best, we won't know for at least a few more months.

@TFrisian39758 ?

@TheRealPlanC You mean like M2 style ?

The early expansionary cycle signs continue. ISM PMI > 50 for 5 straight months now. Bitcoin will follow soon.