Plan C

The idea here is that short-term "holders" will still try to make quick a quick buck even in a bear market, taking profits as soon as they can. In a sustained bear market, this behavior quickly pushes prices down again, proving the rally was just a dead cat bounce. Dead cats might bounce, but they sure don’t float like a butterfly. We're floating.

By repurchasing and canceling $1.5 billion, the firm immediately reduces its total outstanding debt. This lowers future repayment obligations and improves the company's leverage ratios, which will be viewed favorably by credit rating agencies.

Fact: Bitcoin has never broken back above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis and held it as sustained support during any prior extended bear market. STH Cost Basis = $78,417 Today marks day 12 above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, but I'd like to see at least a month above it before calling it sustained.

Simply put: if Bitcoin finds sustained support above the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, the mid-cycle correction theory is most likely correct, and the extended bear market that the four-year-cycle crowd is calling for is likely cancelled.

@KoolFatKat @dondrisnas 100% 🎯

@dondrisnas @TheRealPlanC At the time they sold it all there was a risk because, like you said, nobody knows where the price will go...

An actual 𝕏 Spaces conversation I listened to recently: "So you believe in Bitcoin?" "Million plus, long-term. Super bullish." "You hold any?" "No, I'm fully out. Waiting for $40–50K in Oct/Nov for the cycle low." "So you're a bullish Bitcoiner… who owns zero Bitcoin?" "Yes."

For reference: The last time I ran this same poll a few months ago it was 50/50.

Is the Bitcoin bottom in?

If someone is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, they should never be 100% out of the market. Their basically saying there's a 100% probability the price will go lower, which is objectively bad capital management for anyone who understands probabilities.

@dondrisnas If someone is long-term bullish on Bitcoin, they should never be 100% out of the market. Their basically saying there's a 100% probability the price will go lower, which is objectively bad capital management for anyone who understands probabilities.

@TheRealPlanC not sure why that is so hard for you to understand. You might look somewhat smart at this precise moment, but if they are right, then isn't it you with egg on your face? No one knows the future, so why risk the reputational walloping you are lining yourself up for?

@downwithgo17105 I don't delete posts.

@TheRealPlanC hope you don't delete this tweet when you end up being wrong.

Bitcoin: If you are waiting for Oct/Nov to buy back in, sorry the train will have left the station.

@LibertyBTC Exactly. Very surprised that many people still think we are going lower.

@TheRealPlanC I am shocked 45% say No. That’s all the confirmation I need. We’re going higher. Soon.

@sunny051488 Ok bottom is in for sure. Based on your poll record alone.

@TheRealPlanC Yes

@BitcoinArchive Let's go!!

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The reason we had a muted first lag of the bull run was because macro conditions / the business cycle were not ideal. Meaning we went from $16k to $126k on ETF excitement mostly. The PMI was grinding up during that period as well, it just never had its full expansion and thus we never had the full bull market either.

Let's look at the business cycle, which has been the biggest counterargument to the Halving Cycle since the cycle top in October 2025. We're using Global PMI, which is a monthly survey of businesses across the world, measuring manufacturing and services activity. The sine waves on the Bottom represent the Halving Cycles Theory, which says that Bitcoin operates around the day of the first Halving (November 28th), to form a 3 year bull market and 1 year bear market. It labels 11 important highs and lows (the dots on the chart), including the cycle bottom and top and gives a 3 month window for each to occur in their particular year. There have been no major devations or breaks in this cycle in Bitcoin's 16-17 year history, up to the current day. The business cycle overall has a very low correlation with the Bitcoin cycle. Cycle Bottoms and tops have arrived at almost random points, and the business cycle nearly flatlined from 2022 to 2025 while Bitcoin experienced its bull market as normal. The Halving Cycle is very much alive and well, and the Business Cycle is not suitable to take over in any way.

@CryptoCon_ Show the business oscillator with the same vertical space as the 4-year cycle oscillator. The display is very biased by compressing the vertical space of the oscillator vs the bottom one.

@CryptoCon_ Disagree. Not what the data shows. x.com/sminston_with/…

@wtcmutunda It is correlated.

@TheRealPlanC The business cycle, is not correlated to BTC price and the business cycle is about to Nuke

Important: Bitcoin The generals are always preparing... to fight the last war...