Paulo Gitz, CFA

@MacroCharts calling a tactical top here! $SPY $QQQ $XLK $SOXX $IGV open.substack.com/pub/macrochart…

Dólar abaixo dos R$5: por que o preço da moeda americana caiu? Há 3 principais fatores que explicam essa queda: 1️⃣ busca global por ativos fora dos EUA 2️⃣ melhora no apetite a risco 3️⃣ valuation atrativo na bolsa brasileira e juros altos William Castro Alves (@willcastroalves), estrategista-chefe da Avenue, preparou uma análise sobre esses fatores. Segue o fio🧶

Stunning charts from GS — big extremes here:

In 2019, MIT professor Patrick Winston gave a legendary 1-hour lecture called “How to Speak.” It has 18M+ views for a reason. His frameworks: • Your ideas are like your children • The 5-minute rule for job talks • Why jokes fail at the start 15 lessons on communication:

Thread on the US fiscal out of control / debasement / run from US assets themes...some market charts

@_rob_anderson @NDR_Research @MacroCharts

Late-cycle leadership rotations into Materials have not been uncommon. Of the four prior bull markets since 1974 that lasted into year four, two cases (1990 – 1998 and 2002 – 2007) saw relative strength rotations occur roughly at this point of the cycle. @NDR_Research

@collacomigo E essa correl?

Os investidores locais caem no “Fla vs Flu” político e esquecem que somos vagão, não locomotiva. Pano de fundo global é muito mais importante do que nossas discussões internas que só servem para intensificar (ou não) movimentos. Na mesa, falando com os fundos estrangeiros que opero, o assunto política sempre é rapidamente liquidado.

Big Tech: U.S. vs. China “Earnings growth for a gauge of China’s tech megacaps is poised for a major inflection point in 2026 when it’s expected to overtake Magnificent 7 for the first time since 2022, according to Bloomberg Intelligence.” *Could China Tech outperform U.S. Tech this year?

Excelente contribuição, Dona @JordaoIrene! @valoreconomico usando A.I.rene agora!!!

A Final Message From Scott Adams

These two books contain the sum total of all human knowledge.

Um novo trade de Inteligência Artificial surgiu no último mês, com uma divergência enorme na performance das ações expostas aos ecossistemas do Google e da OpenAI. coatue.com/c/takes/a-new-…

Biggest intraday swing since "Liberation Day" $NDX $QQQ

@willcastroalves Never bet against

MTO BOM esse gráfico! Completa bem aquele outro de valuation. Diferença de ROE entre os países que ajuda a entender o diferencial de valuation tb.

@willcastroalves @fabiofares @gui_zanin_ Se acertar, é gênio. Se errar, foi culpa de alguém.

Eai...será que vai? o que acham? @fabiofares @gui_zanin_ @strategitz

@zeibars RockBlack?

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Michael Mauboussin on the 2 drivers of ROIC 1. High margins and low invested capital turnover = differentiation ( $MSFT, $ORCL, $META, $MA, $GOOGL) 2. Low margins and high invested capital turnover = cost leaders ( $WMT, $AMZN, $HD)

@elonmusk it was a documentary after all...

I’ve heard these same words unironically from people irl so many times

This is Stanley Druckenmiller. He averaged 30% annual returns for 30 years without a single losing year. In 2009, he sat down for an 82-minute interview and revealed his entire approach. Here are the 5 most powerful lessons from it:

The deeper you go into the semiconductor supply chain, the less believable it becomes. > TSMC, a company on a small island, produces over 90% of the world’s most advanced chips > TSMC relies on dutch company ASML for EUV lithography machines > ASML depends on German Company Carl Zeiss, the only firm in the world capable of making mirrors precise enough for ASML’s requirements. > The light source for ASML’s EUV machines is produced by a single company in San Diego. > The photoresists used to print transistor patterns are produced by Japanese firms like JSR and Tokyo Ohka Kogyo. > The ultra-pure quartz needed to make silicon wafers comes entirely from a single mine in Spruce Pine, North Carolina. > The copper and rare-earth materials inside chips are mined and refined across Chile, the Congo, and China. > The specialized gases used in chipmaking, like neon and fluorine, largely come from Ukraine and Japan. > The design blueprints for these chips often come from American companies like NVIDIA, AMD, and Apple, which rely on software tools from U.S. firms like Synopsys and Cadence. Remove any single piece and the whole system collapses.