The Microcap Guy

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The Microcap Guy

The Microcap Guy

@themicrocapguy

SME & microcap investor | 2020 batch | Sharing ideas, learning & networking | Not buy/sell advice | DYODD |

Pune 参加日 Eylül 2020
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
My portfolio : Hindusthan Insulators & Industries Bhagyanagar India Kalyani Cast Tech DEE Development Engineers Connplex Cinemas Aimtron Electronics Prime Cable Industries Suba Hotels Oriana Power Shri Ahimsa Naturals Influx Healthtech Aelea Commodities Taurian MPS Ceinsys Tech
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
2 portfolio companies Taurian MPS and Shri Ahimsa Naturals declaring results today Taurian MPS Expecting 70 Cr revenue and 8-9 cr PAT in H2 FY 26 Shri Ahimsa Expecting 64 Cr revenue and 16 cr PAT in H2 FY 26 Expecting both companies to maintain EBITDA margins as guided.
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VaR
VaR@Vedansh_Ag·
Hindusthan Insulators Q4 Achieved 20 crore quarterly PAT run-rate, and this is post the disruption from gas prices. Some impact may continue into Q1 as well, so adjusting for all of that, ~100 crore PAT in FY27 looks doable. And this doesn't yet factor in the capacity expansion coming online by end of FY27. A 120% capacity expansion should translate into ~250 crore consolidated PAT in FY28, depending on how long the cycle lasts, which currently looks stronger than I had initially expected or calculated. *Rough estimates, not a recommendation.
VaR@Vedansh_Ag

On studying the porcelain insulator space, I must say, what’s unfolding here is quite incredible. There has been virtually no meaningful capacity addition over the last decade, largely due to the fear that polymer insulators would gradually eat into porcelain’s market share. To a large extent, that shift has already played out. However, with the resurgence of HVDC, a segment where substation loads can only be handled by high voltage porcelain insulators, the equation has reversed. We are now looking at a huge supply-demand mismatch, and this appears structural in nature. Adding to this, capacity expansion in this space is extremely capital intensive, which means only a handful of players have the ability to scale. That will further tighten the supply side. There is no substitute. Whatever share polymer was supposed to capture, it has largely already taken. With the resurgence of HVDC, porcelain is back in focus. And this is without even factoring in incremental demand from data centers. To me, this looks like one of those rare, once-in-a-decade kind of opportunities. In the immediate short term, there may be some impact from gas shortages and rising energy costs. However, once the Hormuz issue is resolved, things should normalize. Trying to learn more on this.

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VaR
VaR@Vedansh_Ag·
Mood rn, iykyk
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
@ShubhamKumar_IA Valuation wise it's really cheap. So can see upward momentum in price for short term. But i don't think the margins are sustainable. It would have been better if management come up with a result commentary or held a concall.
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
Modison Ltd ₹566 Cr market cap, PE just 7.2x… and what an exceptional Q4 FY26 performance. Q4 FY26 Revenue: ₹130 Cr → ₹287 Cr (+121% YoY) PAT: ₹9.5 Cr → ₹36 Cr (+278% YoY) EBITDA Margin: ~9.6% → ~24.8% And this PAT still includes ~₹20 Cr loss impact. What makes the company interesting is its niche positioning. Modison manufactures electrical contact materials and finished contacts used across Low Voltage (LV), Medium Voltage (MV), High Voltage (HV) & Extra High Voltage (EHV) switchgear industries. The company claims to be India’s only listed player and among the very few globally manufacturing electrical contact materials and finished contacts across all voltage segments under one roof. Products include: • Silver & silver-alloy contacts • Copper-chromium contacts • Bimetal contact materials • Precious metal compounds • Tungsten heavy alloys Apart from switchgear, the company also caters to Automotive, Aerospace, Marine, Defence & Railways sectors. Clients include ABB, Siemens, Schneider, L&T, CG Power, Eaton, Mitsubishi, etc. With India’s transmission, switchgear & HVDC capex cycle accelerating, niche component suppliers with qualification barriers could quietly become major beneficiaries. However, trade receivables increased sharply from ₹86 Cr in FY25 to ₹160 Cr in FY26, and CFO has remained negative for the last 2 years. I have not studied the company deeply yet. No holding. No recommendation. Please do your own due diligence.
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VaR
VaR@Vedansh_Ag·
No one was interested in the business last year, everyone is interested now. LEARNING | Liquidity in the market has a herd mentality, it won’t flow when things are cheap, the risk-reward is attractive, and the long-term trend is evident. But the moment prices start moving, suddenly everyone discovers the “long-term structural story,” and the re-rating becomes aggressive, sometimes even irrational. One has to stay patient with their conviction, only then can you ride this wave of liquidity.
VaR@Vedansh_Ag

DEE Development Engineers will win this tender, could be anything from 400cr to 1000cr. This is first tender for 2 boilers. Every year work for 10 boilers (minimum) has to be outsourced for next 10 years. Dee Dev has right to win.

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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
@Shreyas_Mehta I also thought that earlier. But it is possible that Q1 will also be impacted due to the Middle East crisis. It’s really hard to hold onto a stock that is facing headwinds, especially when many opportunities are currently available in the market at decent valuations.
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SHREYAS MEHTA
SHREYAS MEHTA@Shreyas_Mehta·
@themicrocapguy how do you see the Q4 results (NWIL) now ? negative numbers due to the middle-east issues -- according to the mgmt .. but shouldn't it be less impacted due to the target export countries being Africa and other regions ?
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
My portfolio : Hindusthan Insulators & Industries Bhagyanagar India Kalyani Cast Tech DEE Development Engineers Connplex Cinemas Aimtron Electronics Prime Cable Industries Suba Hotels Oriana Power Shri Ahimsa Naturals Influx Healthtech Aelea Commodities Taurian MPS Ceinsys Tech
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STR
STR@sachprat07·
#SME #AccentMicrocell #AccentMic Accent Microcell Limited H2FY26 Earnings Call Highlights 👉 Abbreviations: 💠MCC: Microcrystalline Cellulose 💠CMC: Carboxymethyl Cellulose (specifically Pulp-based Sodium CMC) 💠SMCC: Silicified Microcrystalline Cellulose 💠CCS: Croscarmellose Sodium 💠SSG: Sodium Starch Glycolate 👉 FY27 & Future Outlook ▫️ Phase 1 of Unit 3 (premium excipients – primarily CCS, with flexibility for SSG/CMC) 💠Expected to commence commercial production shortly after final regulatory approvals (targeted around late June 2026) 💠Meaningful ramp-up from July 2026. Peak annual revenue potential at full utilisation: ~150–160 Cr. 💠 In FY27, expect pro-rata contribution (9 months of operation) with 50–60%+ utilisation in the first full year of premium products. 💠 Phase 2 (dedicated MCC capacity) is now guided for March 2027; it will drive the bulk of incremental volume and further margin expansion. ▫️ Trading volumes (currently ~25–30% of total, contributing ~90–95 Cr in FY26 at 4–5% margins) 💠These will continue to a certain extent in FY27 but will reduce substantially post-Phase 2, freeing up captive MCC for higher-value conversion and lifting overall profitability ▫️ Current blended EBITDA ~16%. Manufacturing EBITDA already ~20% 💠Higher proportion of premium products (realisation ~600 ₹/kg vs blended ~250–260 ₹/kg) and lower trading, blended margins are expected to expand meaningfully 💠Prudent assumption: +2–3 percentage points initially, with further upside post-Phase 2. ▫️ Longer-term: Unit 3 phases up to Phase 6 already planned on the acquired land; Phase 3 targeted for FY28. 💠Demand visibility for both premium excipients and MCC supports continued 30%+ revenue CAGR trajectory beyond FY27, backed by in-house pulp-based CMC technology (India’s first) and global export focus (already 63% of revenue). 👉 Current Order Book / Projects and Future Pipeline ▫️ Order book of ~4,000 MT for MCC (core product) across domestic and export markets. 💠 Existing plants running at near-full utilisation (~15,000 MT total sales volume in FY26 on ~9,200 MT MCC-equivalent installed capacity). ▫️ Unit 3 Phase 1 (2,400 MT fungible premium capacity): Technology transfer, sampling, stability studies and customer approvals already completed from Dahej plant. 💠Commercial production expected to hit 100% utilisation within 1–2 months of start. 💠 Phase 2 (large-scale MCC) on track for March 2027; will support both captive consumption for premium products and direct sales. ▫️ Exports: Direct exports rose to 63% (from 53% last year) 💠MCC Spheres and SMCC already ~90% exported in H2 FY26. 💠Global presence in 75+ countries via distributors. 💠Pipeline includes deeper penetration in pharma, nutraceuticals, food, cosmetics and new segments; premium products (CCS, SMCC, Spheres) command higher realisation and better margins. ▫️ Future phases (3–6) will be taken up sequentially once Phase 2 reaches full utilisation; land and high-level planning already in place. 👉 Other Notable Points ▫️ Pirana vs Dahej performance clarified: 💠Pirana (domestic-focused, non-spray-dryer technology) reported ~150 Cr revenue but lower absolute profit (~8.5 Cr) due to: 💠Domestic vs export price differential 💠Technology difference and one-time impact of new labour codes. 💠Unit remains profitable; Dahej (export + spray-dryer) delivers higher realisations. ▫️ Raw material & cost pass-through: Wood-pulp price increases fully passed on to customers; 3x export-to-import ratio provides natural currency hedge → negligible net impact. ▫️ Working capital & balance sheet: 💠Receivables and inventory days remain elevated but management confirmed visible improvement already underway; target reduction in FY27. 💠Existing WC + term-loan limits with Kotak sufficient 💠No major debt or equity raise planned in near term (Phase 2 largely funded via right-issue proceeds + internal accruals). ▫️ Strategic firsts: Pulp-based CMC production (key raw material for CCS) to be India’s first 💠40–50 successful trial batches already completed at Dahej. 💠This backward integration will support premium pricing and margin accretion. ▫️ Governance & investor communication: 💠Management acknowledged requests for quarterly updates and plant visits; committed to positive action once Unit 3 stabilises
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Ian Cassel
Ian Cassel@iancassel·
It always feels like you’ll never get another shot to buy a company you want to own and/or add to an existing position, but almost every year (especially in microcap) the market gives you another opportunity.
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VaR
VaR@Vedansh_Ag·
The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has identified 73 items used in the power transmission and distribution sector to formulate a comprehensive localization strategy. India has been importing these critical items due to technology gaps, limited domestic manufacturing capabilities, or economies-of-scale challenges. Among these, 16 items, including subsea cables, HVDC valve assemblies, voltage transformers, porcelain and polymer insulators, high conductivity copper rods, permanent magnet actuators, and encapsulation components for bushings and insulators, have been prioritized for immediate action due to their high import dependence and criticality to the power sector. mercomindia.com/cea-pushes-for…
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Samisosa
Samisosa@samisosa1234·
Good Results and a good 2027 expected : 1. Ideaforge 2. Sterlite Tech 3. HFCL 4. Bajaj Consumer 5. SG Finserv 6. Northern Arc 7. Atlanta Electricals 8. BMW Industries 9. Raymond Realty 10. Aimtron Please add to the list... Disc : No Buy/Sell Advice. Please do your DD
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The Microcap Guy
The Microcap Guy@themicrocapguy·
Interesting listing tomorrow — Recode Studios Ltd Recode is a cosmetics & personal care brand selling through distributors, retail stores, online marketplaces, and its own website. The IPO is coming at ~14x FY26 annualized earnings. Even if it lists 31% higher as GMP suggests, valuation would still be around 18.5x PE — still inexpensive compared to many listed peers in this space. Company has shown strong revenue growth, PAT growth, return ratios, and importantly turned CFO positive in FY25 and 9MFY26. The key thing to watch will be margin sustainability. EBITDA margins improved sharply from ~5% in FY24 to 13% in FY25 and ~23% in 9MFY26. • Price band: ₹150–158 • Market cap: ~₹168 Cr • Good anchor book • Featured on Shark Tank India • Promoter holding post listing: 65.01% Not an investment advice.
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shiv
shiv@shivrockstar·
Mention one SME stock you guys tracking that can surprise after H2 results. 💵✌️
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tushar
tushar@tushar9590·
What's your Top 3 Holdings in the portfolio?
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Ashish Kacholia
Ashish Kacholia@LuckyInvest_ARK·
Hi Friends, I am participating in a wildlife photography competition for the first time and very excited about it. Please check out my pics and if you like them, please vote for me and share in your network. Muchas Gracias in advance🙏💕 aartsmaestro.com/p/ashish-22579…
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VaR
VaR@Vedansh_Ag·
As per my reading, This is the complete thesis on porcelain insulators. The industry spent two decades losing share to polymers, which led to consolidation and kept new capacity from coming online. For obvious reasons, no one invests in fresh capacity in a structurally declining business. That equation is now starting to flip. Polymer has already taken most of the share it was likely to take in the segments where it clearly has an edge, i.e. sub-230kV lines, urban installations, polluted coastal zones, etc. But in extra-high-voltage and ultra-high-voltage applications, porcelain still holds a dominant position. The reason is simple. It has a proven track record (~99.5% survival after 30 years in field studies), mature ANSI and IEC standards, and utilities still default to it for substation bus support, station posts, and high-voltage switchgear, where reliability is non-negotiable. One critical and often overlooked part of this is transformer bushings. At EHV ratings like 400kV, 765kV, and above, transformer bushings have traditionally relied on porcelain as the outer housing, with an oil-impregnated paper (OIP) condenser core inside. The porcelain envelope provides the dielectric strength, mechanical rigidity, and long-term thermal stability that EHV transformers require, and it is still what utilities specify by default in tender documents. Composite housings are gaining ground in HVDC converter bushings and heavily polluted environments, but the bulk of EHV AC power transformer bushings, which is where most substation capex actually goes, still defaults to porcelain. Every new EHV transformer going into a substation is effectively a porcelain bushing order. This matters because India is still in the early stages of its HVDC and EHV build-out. India’s HVDC bipole capacity is expected to roughly double from ~33.5 GW today to 66 GW by 2032, with a 32.3 GW project pipeline, of which only 14.5 GW has been awarded so far. HVDC and EHV projects are substation-heavy, and within those substations, AC switchyards, station posts, bus support insulators, and transformer bushings remain the key long-term demand drivers for porcelain. Layer that on top of the broader ₹9 trillion (~$110 B) T&D capex cycle running through 2032, and demand visibility starts looking unusually strong. Now combine that demand with a decade of supply-side underinvestment, an already consolidated industry, no meaningful greenfield capacity additions, and long qualification cycles for high-voltage products, and you have the setup for a classic capital goods cycle. Disclaimer: I’m not an expert on this topic. This is simply my attempt to piece together information from various sources, and some of it may be incorrect or outdated. Please do your own research and arrive at your own conclusions. I can, and likely will, change my opinion as new facts emerge. This is not investment advice.
VaR@Vedansh_Ag

Insulators are a new area for me, so I’ve been trying to read as much as possible. Did a small experiment, checked out HIIL’s factory on Google Maps, pulled images from inside the facility, and asked Claude to create a product capability report. Turned out to be a pretty solid read. drive.google.com/file/d/1PLO9-X… Purely for EDUCATIONAL purpose. No buy/sell advice, please.

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