Shubham Kumar - Macro & Markets

Investing law of averages: Situations are never as bad as media portrays! And never as good as the sell side analysts portray

HEC Infra Con-Call | Q-Power Con-Call

@CNBCTV18Live @blitzkreigm Why does this co. get 48 PE again? FMCG companies growing 7% in USA would get PE of 20

#4QWithCNBCTV18 | #HUL reports #Q4 results 👉Net profit up 20.9% at ₹2,992 cr vs ₹2,475 cr (YoY) 👉Revenue up 7.6% at ₹16,351 cr vs ₹15,190 cr (YoY) 👉EBITDA up 6% at ₹3,841 cr vs ₹3,619 cr (YoY) 👉Margin at 23.5% vs 23.8% (YoY) 👉Volume growth at 6% vs CNBC-TV18 poll of 4-5% 👉Board approves final dividend of ₹22/sh

Is the top near or do we wait for 1000$/Barrel projections?

Got early with identifying this theme. ✌🏼

@jturek18 @citrini The Iran situation has cemented USA’s hegemony and complete control on the oil outside Russia! Who came to challenge USA?

Post Iran, there is definitely a "sell America" narrative in FX. The problem is, the big holders of USDs are not only not selling but they are seemingly adding. - Gulf swap line request - CNH state banks keep buying - USDJPY is still near 160 - SWIFT data shows USD usage up

@InvestorOfJAMMU Where does the R&D happen for the products they sell? Outside India Where does the corporate marketing happen for the umbrella brands? Outside India Why shouldn’t they charge Royalty?

Foreign companies like Nestle, LG, Hyundai, Hindustan Unilver and many other are taking away 3-5% Royalty fees on Sales from India every year. This is despite having stake in the company as well as Dividend income. This is the reason I avoid investing in them as they are making f00L of Indian investors. Why you are taking away free money from the company and that too on Sales and not profits, when you are enjoying stock appreciation and dividend income.

@Sandeep_Majj Bluestone is a very interesting co.

Q4 Fy26 results - companies that have shown 15% revenue growth and 25% profit growth YoY - BLUESTONE TRENT TIPSMUSIC SANGAMIND SUNTECK ATUL KRISHANA MBAPL HINDZINC MAHABANK ARSSBL ANGELONE GROWW ANANDRATHI CRISIL TATAINVEST LTF SGFIN PERSISTENT OFSS AURUM NELCO JAYNECOIND RPEL WAAREERTL NAVKARCORP NESTLEIND BAJAJCON VSTIND Many other companies are yet to announce their results. #Q4FY26 #GrowthStocks

Two hope stories: permanently pregnant, never delivering 1. Rain Industries 2. Suntek Realty I don’t track both of these, if they start moving right after this tweet.. it’ll be a coincidence

@ShashankUdupa1 Gas market is 1/10th the electricity market by value Bull case, IGX will contribute max. 20% of IEX revenue. It wont be mover & shaker of IEX The fragility which de-coupling brings wont be compensated by IGX. Only if IEX can work around de-coupling, its worth looking at!

IEX Concall Updates Coal Exchange opportunities: Large demand on buy side and sell side with multiple sellers and merchant mines. Govt pushing for E-auction coal to trade through exchanges. In the Beginning stages, buyers will have to make arrangements to lift the coal themself. Price discovery, coal quality to be ensured. MCX also filed for Coal exchange but only derivatives, IEX to be spot market. TAM can be told only after final regulations. Operations side: More than 70% trading is through API. Price discovery is through algorithm and using AI for only creating new products and operational improvement. Gas exchange: Volumes not as good as expected, due to middle east crisis. Q1 we may not grow, but definitely in Q2 we will see growth. Domestic + other suppliers too trading here. Deadline to reduce stake in IGX extended to Dec 31st 2026. Market Coupling: When asked for a timeline, management says “can't say when final notification will be issued”. On the new draft about Grid India deciding price, management says “situation is fluid”. “They might review this decision or may not go ahead at all.” “All exchanges have their own software. Grid India has to create infrastructure, software and connect all these exchanges. Bids will be collected and submitted to Grid India. I don't think so any value creation is happening. No benefit of coupling” As for trading participant’s response to coupling, no change in their working. Customer loyalty is very important. We interact with them, teach them how to use software, data analytics, faster bidding, settlement support, so a lot of value addition from IEX. I am sure we will retain our customers. Even if coupling happens, we will retain our market share. Liquidity will continue. We don't expect any significant margin drop. RTM no case of market coupling anywhere. Tight timeline 15 minute and 5 minutes time block. Not possible to implement. Renewable suppliers and battery suppliers number increasing everyday. FY27 volume growth will be maintained at 15-20% growth. This year will have high demand. CFD contracts pilot launch for 500MW fixed price battery capacity.

@gaze_observer Electrification is a decadal theme Find the companies servicing bottlenecks to this buildout eg: 1. Insulators: check @Vedansh_Ag timeline on this subject 2. Copper recycling

India Peak Power Demand Hits Record 252 GW Amid Heatwave India’s peak power demand touched 252.07 GW, highest ever Surge driven by intensifying heatwave across regions Higher usage of ACs, coolers and cooling appliances boosted demand Previous record was 250 GW (May 2024) Indicates strong seasonal electricity consumption spike Highlights need for grid readiness and supply management during summers

@EquityValueIn Create a website and make a compendium please. You are doing good work!

Semiconductors and Electronics Value Chain in India , mapping the players

@EquityValueIn Gas market is 1/10th the electricity market by value Bull case, IGX will contribute max. 20% of IEX revenue. It wont be mover & shaker of IEX The fragility which de-coupling brings wont be compensated by IGX. Only if IEX can work around de-coupling, it worth looking at

IEX, mapping the subsidiary IGX growth and key growth levers for the business , lot of value inside !

#TCS #Infosys #HCL #IT IT companies are undergoing disruption. Its advisable to not fall for "cheap valuations" & wait for clarity on how these companies adapt While the world innovated, our companies distributed dividends! I share my thoughts youtu.be/5vw-BaXw0Wk

@umang5487248 @CNBCTV18Live That’s true

@ShubhamKumar_IA @CNBCTV18Live Bro, people will blink who are associated with them or living.

#JustIn | #RBI cancels the Licence of #PaytmPaymentsBank

#paytm Glossy interface doesn't compensate for cost of Funds! Classical banks have a super-power over these new-age Fintech companies: access to CASA (current accounts & saving accounts) As a result, payment banks try to act smart Fintechs are distributors, not banks!

@PTI_News I'll say fintechs never really had a moat In lending business, no. 1 thing that matters is the cost of funds (who has access to the maximum no. of current account, saving account) You can't compensate for cost of funds with a pretty interface

STORY | RBI cancels banking licence of Paytm Payments Bank The Reserve Bank of India on Friday said it has cancelled the banking licence issued to Paytm Payments Bank. The licence was cancelled as the "affairs of the bank were conducted in a manner detrimental to the interest of the bank and its depositors", the RBI said in a statement. READ: ptinews.com/story/business…

@moneycontrolcom @jagan520 I'll say fintechs never really had a moat In lending business, no. 1 thing that matters is the cost of funds (who has access to the maximum no. of current account, saving account) You can't compensate for cost of funds with a pretty interface

JUST IN | 🚨 RBI cancels banking licence of Paytm Payments Bank @jagan520 with details: moneycontrol.com/news/business/… #RBI #Paytm

@dugalira I'll say fintechs never really had a moat In lending business, no. 1 thing that matters is the cost of funds (who has access to the maximum no. of current account, saving account) You can't compensate for cost of funds with a pretty interface

RBI cancels the licence of Paytm payments bank

@ThetaVegaCap I'll say fintechs never really had a moat In lending business, no. 1 thing that matters is the cost of funds (who has access to the maximum no. of current account, saving account) You can't compensate for cost of funds with a pretty interface

RBI Cancels Licence of PayTm Payments Bank Big Negative for PayTM #PayTM