Wizard of FiDi

Clavicular revealed his NEW METHOD for avoiding trouble by asking for a 1-day employment contract 😳👀 “You realize we can just make a contract that employs me for a day.” “I’m literally an employee who’s allowed in the club.”

Miami, Florida feels like summer that never decided to end.

I have this view that small business buying has overshot its "golden peak" moment, in a similar way that real estate investing overshot when we moved from the 2010s into the 2020s Both movements mirror each other: unlikely everyday hero (usually disillusioned W-2 worker) takes action and creates wealth Success stories soon get distributed via online forums, Twitter, and podcasts, leading to broad popular movement and media coverage This is exactly what happened with the rise of the Bigger Pockets podcast in the mid-2010s. And then it came to halt when interest rates rose in 2022. And my sense is that it hasn't come back. Post BP implosion, my sense is that a lot of the RE crowd moved on to SMB ETA. This was primarily because (1) the commonly cited, much more attractive 3X-5X multiples in SMB, and (2) the perceived faster wealth compounding vs. RE (related to 1, and arguably glossing over the much higher risk profile) And then ETA got (more) challenging in the 2024-2026 period. More competition, heightened seller expectations. The thing is, ETA results lag given a typical 5-10 year (?) ownership cycle, and they're nebulous. With real estate, I think the range of outcomes is more narrow (rents cluster around the market rate, you can only control opex this much). So feedback in SMB is delayed. And my sense is that popular perception of the space is still gleaming white hot. I don't know when popular momentum will slow down. To the extent X is a leading indicator, I've already noticed a drop off in SMB content on my timeline, but who knows if this is due to the ever-changing algo. I also don't know what asset class is the next "thing". We may have achieved high levels of efficiency. There's no obvious next frontier. To be clear: I still absolutely believe in this asset class. These thoughts are more of a commentary on "what's popular and hot with the mom and pop crowd right now". We all know that the true OG acquisition entrepreneurs and operators will be successful, no matter what's popular or hot with the crowd today. They have always been, and will always be. They'll find a way.

Prediction: “Peptides” will be a fad that fizzles for the masses. Most peptides move the needle from 98 to 99. America has proven it’s unwilling to do the work to go from 0 to 98. “Peptides don’t do anything” will the be the net result.

The alcohol free movement is not a trend. It’s a category shift. ARKAY ZERO PROOF is building in the fastest-growing “no/low” space. If you’re an investor watching CPG + wellness, keep an eye on this.

This news article is absolutely insane and probably a good glimpse into what the future of hedge funds look like in an AI driven world Coatue backed hedge fund, Epicenter, is using AI to replace massive teams of hedge fund analysts Their AI bot, Eve, is plugged into every part of the firm, including emails and every trade that the fund puts on Without any prompts, the AI bot is able to assign tasks to human analysts and write code on their behalf Eve also contains a screening tool which scours through more than 13,000 company disclosures, listens to podcasts, and summarizes news reports on specific businesses The AI bot can then generate primers and custom podcasts on behalf of the human analysts without requiring any instructions beforehand If you read this and don’t think that AI is going to impact headcount in finance, you are absolutely mistaken