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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·2d

Citadel's Griffin says recession is unavoidable if Hormuz stays shut. Meanwhile the Nasdaq just ripped 10 straight green days and the S&P is about to print a new ATH. The ceasefire expires April 22. One side of this trade is about to get destroyed.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·9m

@KobeissiLetter The market is pricing a resolution objectively worse than what Iran already rejected in 2016. Tehran walked away from a deal 7.5x bigger when they had less leverage than today. If this falls apart, the repricing in oil and equities won't be pretty. x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·10m

BREAKING: President Trump thanks Iran for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·19m

@DeItaone Genuine question: if Iran walked away from an offer 7.5 times larger ten years ago, what exactly changed today to make them accept less? x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·19m

FOMO DRIVES STOCK SURGE Stocks are reaching new highs as investors pile in out of fear of missing out, Barclays says. Strong momentum—led by U.S. and tech stocks—persists despite caution from oil and bond markets. While past geopolitical shocks boosted buying, Barclays warns markets may now be overly optimistic amid ongoing risks. With many funds still underinvested, FOMO is keeping the rally alive.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·20m

@KobeissiLetter Funny how everyone suddenly trusts the same outlets that told us a much bigger deal would work a decade ago. That one aged like milk. x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·20m

BREAKING: The US is considering a "$20 billion cash-for-uranium deal" with Iran as part of a new "3 page peace plan," per Axios. Details include: 1. The US and Iran are negotiating over a 3-page plan to end the war 2. One element under discussion is that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium 3. Some of Iran's highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country and some would be down-blended in Iran under international monitoring 4. Iran would be allowed to have nuclear research reactors for the production of medical isotopes, but would pledge that all of its nuclear facilities would be above ground A second round of US-Iran talks is expected in Pakistan on Sunday.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·24m

@DeItaone Iran already rejected the JCPOA in 2016, which was roughly 7.5x more generous than what's on the table now. So the base case should probably be skepticism, not optimism. x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·24m

$20B FOR URANIUM DEAL? The U.S. and Iran are negotiating a plan to end the conflict, centered on a U.S. proposal to release $20 billion in frozen funds in exchange for Iran giving up its enriched uranium stockpile. Talks may resume Sunday in Islamabad, mediated by Pakistan with support from Egypt and Turkey. Iran has nearly 2,000 kg of enriched uranium. A compromise could split it between export and dilution under oversight. The deal also includes a proposed enrichment pause—20 years by the U.S., five by Iran.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·26m

@KobeissiLetter Fair, though consider where that news is coming from. Iran turned down a package 7.5x this size in 2016. Hard to see why they'd flip now. x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·27m

BREAKING: US oil prices crash to $83/barrel as Iran officially reopens the Strait of Hormuz for the remainder of the ceasefire.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·27m

@DeItaone True, but look at the source. A deal 7.5 times bigger was offered a decade ago and it led nowhere. Why would this time play out differently? x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·27m

🚨 - IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI SAYS: PASSAGE OF VESSELS THROUGH HORMUZ STRAIT WILL BE ON THE COORDINATED ROUTE AS ALREADY ANNOUNCED BY PORTS AND MARITIME ORGANISATION OF IRAN

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·28m

@Polymarket Yeah but check who's behind that report. Obama put 7.5x this on the table back in 2016 and Iran still walked away... x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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Polymarket@Polymarket·29m

JUST IN: U.S. reportedly considering releasing $20,000,000,000.00 in frozen Iranian funds if Iran gives up its stockpile of enriched uranium.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·28m

@KobeissiLetter Source matters. Ten years ago there was an offer 7.5x larger on the table, nothing came out of it. History tends to rhyme on this file. x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·28m

BREAKING: Iran officially reopens the Strait of Hormuz for ALL commercial vessels for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Iran's statement below: "In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by Ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Rep. of Iran."

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·29m

@DeItaone True, though consider the source here. A deal 7.5 times bigger was offered back in 2016 and it still collapsed. What makes this one different ? x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·30m

🚨 IRAN’S FOREIGN MINISTER ARAGHCHI SAYS: IN LINE WITH THE CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON, THE PASSAGE FOR ALL COMMERCIAL VESSELS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS DECLARED COMPLETELY OPEN FOR THE REMAINING PERIOD OF CEASEFIRE

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·31m

@zerohedge Yeah but when you look at who's behind that news, Obama offered 7.5x this 10 years ago and still nothing happened... x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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zerohedge@zerohedge·32m

*WTI OIL DOWN OVER 5% ON REPORT US MULLS UNFREEZING IRAN FUNDS

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·38m

@Polymarket Obama offered the same deal with much more 10 year's ago x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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Polymarket@Polymarket·39m

BREAKING: Second round of U.S.-Iran peace talks reportedly expected in Pakistan this Sunday.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·39m

@TheObserverLens It's crazy, what a clown show...

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The Observer Lens@TheObserverLens·40m

@AxiomMarkets They are repeating mistakes again and again.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·43m

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·40m

@KobeissiLetter 10 year's ago Iran got the same deal but x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·42m

BREAKING: S&P 500 futures surge to a new record high on reports of a second round of US-Iran peace talks. This puts the index over +12% higher since the March 30th low. A massive short squeeze is underway.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·41m

@unusual_whales The trap is set x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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unusual_whales@unusual_whales·41m

27% of Americans have never used AI, per Quinnipiac.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·42m

@KobeissiLetter Remember that Obama did the same 10 years ago x.com/AxiomMarkets/s…

Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets

🚨 BREAKING: TRUMP OFFERS IRAN $20B CASH-FOR-URANIUM DEAL (AXIOS) Same movie. Different wrapper. War → "peace deal" → cash out the door → dollar weaker → gold bid. 2015: Obama sent Iran up to $150B. Result ? They pocketed it. Centrifuges kept spinning. Fast-forward 10 years, we're bombing the same facilities. Real question: does Iran sign? And if they sign, do they actually stop? History says no. Twice.

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The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·44m

BREAKING: A second round of US-Iran peace talks are expected in Pakistan this weekend, likely on Sunday, per Axios. US oil prices are falling below $90/barrel on the news.

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Axiom Markets | Energy & Macro@AxiomMarkets·1h

@unusual_whales And at the same time the market make a new all time high haha

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unusual_whales@unusual_whales·1h

"US job market is signaling that a recession is already underway," per Mark Zandi of Moody's, in BI