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Axis Balance
441 posts
Axis Balance
@Axis_Balance
Macro & Crypto Cycle Research Structural Trends | Liquidity | Capital Rotation Long-Term Positioning Not financial advice.
가입일 Mart 2020
78 팔로잉367 팔로워
Is a retest of the lower boundary of this long-term bullish channel likely?
Such a move would imply the NDX revisiting the 19.5k level.
Guilherme Tavares@i3_invest
QQQ has to hold this support (A). If it breaks with conviction, the odds increase for a test of the lower end of the long-term bullish channel.
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@TrendSpider Is the bottom in?
Not yet.
No capitulation.
No structural reclaim after a breakdown.
No higher low confirmed.
This looks like a mid-cycle correction, not a final bottom.
Patience.
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This isn’t a normal cycle.
Rising inflation.
Energy breaking out.
Geopolitical tensions accelerating.
We are not heading into stability — we’re entering a new macro regime.
And yet, price is still respecting the 17-year support zone.
Base case:
→ volatility driven by macro shocks
→ rotation, not collapse
→ higher low before continuation
GFC-style crash?
That would require a full break of structure — and we’re not there.
Markets don’t top on fear. They top on excess liquidity.
Right now, we’re somewhere in between.
Which path plays out? 👇
$NDX $NDQ
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🚨 Iran’s IRGC just threatened 18 US companies.
If the US continues assassinating Iranian leaders, these are the targets.
Deadline: April 1st.
– Boeing
– Meta
– Tesla
– Oracle
– Palantir
– IBM
– Apple
– JP Morgan
– Dell
– Nvidia
– Intel
– Microsoft
– GE
– Cisco
And more.
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Zooming in on the weekly timeframe — Nasdaq 100 Index.
This isn’t a normal cycle.
Rising inflation.
Energy breaking out.
Geopolitical tensions accelerating.
We are not heading into stability — we’re entering a new macro regime.
And yet, price is still respecting the 17-year support zone.
Base case:
→ volatility driven by macro shocks
→ rotation, not collapse
→ higher low before continuation
GFC-style crash?
That would require a full break of structure — and we’re not there.
Markets don’t top on fear. They top on excess liquidity.
Right now, we’re somewhere in between.
Which path plays out? 👇
$NDX $NDQ
Axis Balance@Axis_Balance
Nasdaq 100 — 17-year support zone (since 2009) holding on the monthly log scale. Price has repeatedly interacted with this zone over the years. Base case: pullback into the 17-year support zone later this year → continuation of the long-term uptrend. GFC-style scenario: sharp rejection and deeper correction. Which path is more likely? 👇 $NDX $NDQ #StockMarket #MarketTrends #GFC
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🚨 2026 WILL MAKE 2008 LOOK LIKE A SMALL DIP
THE WARNING SIGNS ARE EVERYWHERE
BUT MOST PEOPLE STILL DON'T SEE IT
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@FulvioOlivieri Appreciate the insight! I’m leaning towards a similar scenario, though I suspect the correction might be shallower in percentage terms compared to 2022. Let’s see how it unfolds. A strong hug back! 🤝📉
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@Axis_Balance My BRO, I wait to scenario similar at 2022, crash April may and another bottom next October November 2026, my opinion....an strong HUG 🙏💯👍🌟
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The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
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The Market is going to rally out of this bottom - like it did in April 2025.
Was the "tariffs-situation solved" at that point? No!
And neither does the situation in ME need to be.
Markets are not driven by geopolitical situations alone.
Wait and see!
English
You’ve been on the right side of the big move — no doubt.
But what matters now isn’t just oil going higher…
it’s what comes after.
We’re moving through a classic inflation sequence:
Precious metals → Industrial metals → Energy
Next: Agriculture.
That’s where inflation hits the real economy.
If oil is heading toward those extreme targets,
then food prices won’t stay behind.
My chart suggests agri is now approaching a key inflection:
95–100 resistance, with seasonality pointing to a Q1–Q2 peak window — likely early 2027 for a local top.
This is how second-wave inflation spreads —
not just through energy, but into everything people actually consume.
Markets are focused on oil.
They’re not ready for what comes next.
English
Been saying that a 2nd wave of big inflation is coming.
And oil has now kickstarted that phase.
And, been saying for years that we will see at least $250-$300 oil during this commodities bull market.
And in the linked post below I raised that target to $369.
Oil was at $58.40 in the linked post below. Now at $102.
The linked post below nailed the low.
That is a massive breakout, by gapping above the red pattern.
Reached $120 on the breakout move.
The 4.5 year red bullish falling wedge is probably a halfway pattern, with a price target of $369 (green lines measured move).
Since I called the commodities bear market low almost 6 years ago, I have been saying that this commodities bull market is the best opportunity you will ever have in life to get out of the rat race.
When that 2nd pink head & shoulders pattern broke down just before the Covid-crash, I understood that the huge blue head & shoulders pattern was probably going to play out too. And it very much did.
This is the kind of guidance that makes a difference: => nailed both the big drop in 2020, plus the huge breakout now
Following the right people is absolutely vital.
#joinus graddhy.com #oott #oilprice
Graddhy - Commodities TA+Cycles@graddhybpc
Been saying for years that we will see at least $250-$300 oil during this commodities bull market. I am now raising that target to $369. Oil now has a 4.5 year red bullish falling wedge, and if that pattern is a halfway pattern, which it most probably is, then the price target for this pattern is $369. Get ready for the 2nd inflationary phase to start soon. Since I called the commodities bear market low almost 6 years ago, I have been saying that this commodities bull market is the best opportunity you will ever have in life to get out of the rat race. When that 2nd pink head & shoulders pattern broke down just before the Covid-crash, I understood that the huge blue head & shoulders pattern was probably going to play out too. And it very much did. That is the kind of guidance that makes a difference. Following the right people is absolutely vital. #joinus graddhy.com #oott #oilprice
English
You’re talking about a scenario the market is still underestimating.
The Strait of Hormuz handles ~20–25% of global oil flows — restricting it is effectively a supply shock to the entire world economy.
We’ve seen this before.
In 1973, the Arab oil embargo didn’t just spike prices — oil quadrupled and triggered a global inflationary crisis.
Now imagine a structurally constrained flow instead of a temporary embargo.
That’s not just oil going higher —
that’s inflation spreading across everything:
Energy → Metals → Food
We’re already seeing this rotation play out.
Precious metals led.
Industrial metals followed.
Energy is now exploding.
Agriculture is next.
My base case:
Agri pushes into 95–100 resistance, with a potential local top in early 2027 (Q1/Q2 seasonality).
This isn’t random — it’s how commodity cycles unfold under supply shocks.
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
@badcharts1 am I right?
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
Energy is outperforming the S&P 500 by the widest margin ever on a rolling quarterly basis.
One thing that stands out is that the more offensive/higher beta side of the sector, explorers and producers with greater leverage to the underlying commodities, has not even broken out on a relative basis yet.
$XOP $XLE $SPY
Ricardo Sarraf@nullcharts
Energy is the leader. In short order, it has gone from merely improving to leading. And true to nature, it's giving latecomers very little opportunity to get involved. The last time Energy outperformed the benchmark for an extended period, strength first showed up in the equal-weight, well ahead of the cap-weighted ratios. This cycle is no different. Today, both the equal-weight ( $RSPG / $RSP) and cap-weight ( $XLE / $SPY) ratios triggered monthly PPO reversal signals. On an absolute basis, both $XLE and $RSPG closed at their highest daily, weekly, and monthly levels in history. If you are betting the Energy run is already over, it would have to be the shortest one on record. More likely, we are still in the early innings.
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
During healthy bull markets you see breakdowns failing all the time. During the bear markets it's the breakouts that fail quite often.
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
Feed your investments like crazy for 10 years.
In return, they’ll feed you for the following 50 years.
English
Stocks did crash as expected
$BTC was the canary in the coal mine (again)
S&P500 (ES1!) reached my 6400 target 1 ✅
Next target - 6150 📉
CryptoBullet@CryptoBullet1
$BTC leads the S&P500 Stocks will crash soon
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you @great_martis expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
BREAKING: China is now on track to import 3.69 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas in March, the lowest since 2018.
That would mark a -45% decline from January and a -57% drop from December, amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Last year, China imported ~30% of its LNG from Qatar.
As a result, Asian LNG prices have nearly DOUBLED this month as buyers compete for an increasingly limited supply.
Chinese companies are now relying more on domestic gas and pipeline deliveries to offset the shortage.
China’s LNG imports are collapsing amid the Iran War.
English
The Bloomberg Agriculture Index is quietly setting up for a major move.
We’re approaching a long-term trendline that has held since the 2020 lows — and momentum is building.
Key levels to watch:
• First resistance: 95–100
• Macro breakout zone: 135–140 (cycle-level)
What’s interesting is the sequence:
Precious metals moved first.
Then industrial metals followed.
Energy came next.
Now it’s agriculture’s turn.
This rotation across commodities is not random — it’s how inflationary cycles typically unfold.
Seasonality also matters here.
Agriculture tends to peak in Q1 or early Q2, which aligns with a potential local top in early 2027 — right into that first resistance zone.
Pullbacks are likely, but the bigger picture is becoming clearer.
If we break higher, this isn’t just a trade — it’s a structural shift.
Do you expect rejection at 95–100, or continuation into a full cycle breakout?
English
Powell doesn’t seem particularly concerned about inflation.
Plenty of “tools” left in the toolbox, apparently :)
Two words come to mind:
Hard Assets.
@tavicosta/p-192358201" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">substack.com/@tavicosta/p-1…
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