
Let me explain my $40k +/-5k #BTC Bear Market Bottom Target One of the Key indicators that I pay attention to during bear markets is $BTC Realized Price [ Realized Price is value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins ] Every Bear Market #Bitcoin tests the Realized Price level and breaks below it 📉 In 2011 $BTC went -66% below the Realized Price In 2015 $BTC went -48% below the Realized Price In 2018 $BTC went -35% below the Realized Price In 2022 $BTC went -33% below the Realized Price And in 2026 we’ll also see $BTC going below the Realized Price (currently sitting at $56k) Keep in mind that in Bear Markets the Realized Price usually slowly declines, so the levels might slightly change. If we’re gonna repeat the 2022 Bear Market, -33% below the Realized Price would be $37.4k. As I mentioned, the Realized Price will likely decline this year, so by Q3-Q4 in can be at $53-54k and -33% would be around $35k. That’s the lowest I could see $BTC go this year. As we can see, over the years BTC Volatility has decreased and the distance between the market Price and Realized Price has narrowed: from -66% in 2011 to -33% in 2022 So I believe in 2026 we will have something between -24% & -31% below the Realized Price which means $40-43k That’s basically how I came up with my $35-45k Bear Market Bottom Target using this on-chain indicator























