CryptoBullet

Let me explain my $40k +/-5k #BTC Bear Market Bottom Target One of the Key indicators that I pay attention to during bear markets is $BTC Realized Price [ Realized Price is value of all coins in circulation at the price they last moved, in other words an approximation of what the entire market paid for their coins ] Every Bear Market #Bitcoin tests the Realized Price level and breaks below it 📉 In 2011 $BTC went -66% below the Realized Price In 2015 $BTC went -48% below the Realized Price In 2018 $BTC went -35% below the Realized Price In 2022 $BTC went -33% below the Realized Price And in 2026 we’ll also see $BTC going below the Realized Price (currently sitting at $56k) Keep in mind that in Bear Markets the Realized Price usually slowly declines, so the levels might slightly change. If we’re gonna repeat the 2022 Bear Market, -33% below the Realized Price would be $37.4k. As I mentioned, the Realized Price will likely decline this year, so by Q3-Q4 in can be at $53-54k and -33% would be around $35k. That’s the lowest I could see $BTC go this year. As we can see, over the years BTC Volatility has decreased and the distance between the market Price and Realized Price has narrowed: from -66% in 2011 to -33% in 2022 So I believe in 2026 we will have something between -24% & -31% below the Realized Price which means $40-43k That’s basically how I came up with my $35-45k Bear Market Bottom Target using this on-chain indicator

#BTC Cycle Top is in. $OTHERSBTC ( $Alts against #BTC) has bottomed out. How is that even possible? Well, actually, it’s nothing new. We had the same situation back in September 2019 👈 That's when $BTC was consolidating -30% below the Top after an intense 7-month rally off the bear market bottom and $OTEHRSBTC was sitting at the cycle low. That's exactly what we have right now, but on a bigger scale: - $BTC was going up for much longer (35 months instead of 7 months in 2018-2019) - $OTEHRSBTC has been going down for 4 years straight! (more than twice as long as the previous OTHERS/BTC bear market) And one more thing - the Fed just ended QT on Dec 1, 2025 (yesterday) 📍 When did we have that in the previous cycle? Yep, in September 2019! So we're in a pretty similar environment right now. Back then $BTC had a -63% pullback while $OTHERSBTC rose by +65% (and kept going up until $BTC went parabolic from $11k to $40k) Conclusion: $BTC has topped out like in 2019, but this time it's the Cycle Top. On October 10 $OTHERSBTC likely reached the Cycle Bottom, no more serious bleeding for $Alts against $BTC. 👉 Next Year I'm expecting a nasty $BTC correction (Bear Market); 👉 In the next 2-3 months I’m expecting a good Bounce on $OTHERSBTC (liquidity rotation/mini Altseason) during the #BTC Dead Cat Bounce; 👉 In 2019-2020 $OTHERSBTC was going up (Relief Rally) while $BTCUSD was going down, so maybe we'll have the same throughout 2026. 💡 Crazy Parabolic Phase on $Alts (the big Altseason) will only happen in the next cycle (2027-2029)

#BTC Cycle Top is in. $OTHERSBTC ( $Alts against #BTC) has bottomed out. How is that even possible? Well, actually, it’s nothing new. We had the same situation back in September 2019 👈 That's when $BTC was consolidating -30% below the Top after an intense 7-month rally off the bear market bottom and $OTEHRSBTC was sitting at the cycle low. That's exactly what we have right now, but on a bigger scale: - $BTC was going up for much longer (35 months instead of 7 months in 2018-2019) - $OTEHRSBTC has been going down for 4 years straight! (more than twice as long as the previous OTHERS/BTC bear market) And one more thing - the Fed just ended QT on Dec 1, 2025 (yesterday) 📍 When did we have that in the previous cycle? Yep, in September 2019! So we're in a pretty similar environment right now. Back then $BTC had a -63% pullback while $OTHERSBTC rose by +65% (and kept going up until $BTC went parabolic from $11k to $40k) Conclusion: $BTC has topped out like in 2019, but this time it's the Cycle Top. On October 10 $OTHERSBTC likely reached the Cycle Bottom, no more serious bleeding for $Alts against $BTC. 👉 Next Year I'm expecting a nasty $BTC correction (Bear Market); 👉 In the next 2-3 months I’m expecting a good Bounce on $OTHERSBTC (liquidity rotation/mini Altseason) during the #BTC Dead Cat Bounce; 👉 In 2019-2020 $OTHERSBTC was going up (Relief Rally) while $BTCUSD was going down, so maybe we'll have the same throughout 2026. 💡 Crazy Parabolic Phase on $Alts (the big Altseason) will only happen in the next cycle (2027-2029)