Brett Erickson

One of my gravest concerns as the war continues is that we have crossed the Rubicon as it relates to the replenishment of the Russian war chest due to the boon in revenues from oil exports as a result of the "unsanctioning" of Russian oil. Russia is raking in well beyond $5B/month from increased oil revenues, and with a low likelihood of these Pakistan peace talks resulting in any meaningful ceasefire, there is great risk that we will see General Licenses 133 and 134 perpetually extended over the course of the year due to a need to temper the global energy markets. As I said in The Washington Post on Friday: "This move directly contradicts Trump’s own statements that the United States is considering winding down this conflict,” “You don’t unsanction Iranian oil if you’re winding down. This is the action of an administration that has no exit ramp and knows it. The word for that is desperation.”

@Amena__Bakr It’s not even about insurance. It’s the threat to life of the captain and crew.

Insurance is one thing, but what about the active war? When will that end ? #OOTT

@Michellewb_ I mean if it’s headed to Cuba it is still subject to sanctions underage-134A regardless of loading date

sanctioned oil products tanker Adhara (9353125) is signalling its sailing for Port Esquivel, Jamaica. It has a cargo of 118,000 barrels of fuel oil (Vortexa). difficult to tell whether it loaded at Russia's Baltic ports before March 12 (when a US sanctions waiver was announced on prior cargoes on the water) because the vessel had plenty of dark activity over that period. Vortexa has it loading on March 18 and @WindwardAI has it sailing from Russian waters on March 21. perhaps it's really going to Cuba? The AIS destination is inputted manually by the crew and it's not Adhara's first rodeo in deceptive shipping practices. watching with interest

@RKelanic It’s just so… obviously engrained in the Persian culture. Their national pride and cultural depth is what makes Iran… Iran. To think they’ll capitulate to the Great Satan is to make an elementary mistake in the understanding of the Persian people.

@BrettErickson28 🤷‍♀️ it’s a mistake we’ve made repeatedly since WWII and continually fail to learn

Early reporting suggested that U.S. strikes were burying entire Iranian missile cities, effectively rendering them inoperable. Turns out, Iran can “uncork” those sites in as little as 12 hours. 👇 haaretz.com/israel-news/is…

@AmyKosari @RKelanic The Iranian people rally around the flag when their civilian infrastructure is destroyed and the ordinary person is killed by missiles.

@BrettErickson28 @RKelanic Surrender? The Iranian people overwhelmingly support our intervention. Are you kidding?

Heavy bombardment of Tehran isn’t going to make Iran surrender. The history of strategic bombing is dead clear on this: it doesn’t work. The U.S. firebombed Dresden & Tokyo during WWII, killing tens of thousands. Neither Germany nor Japan surrendered. More recently, Moscow’s attacks on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities also hasn’t forced Ukraine to surrender. In the age of nationalism, bombing infrastructure doesn’t break the will of the populace —it *increases* their resolve to resist. It is strategically counterproductive. When strategic bombing fails, the pressure will increase for further escalation, perhaps as boots on the ground, as the U.S. chases sunk costs. This is how wars that start little get bigger and bigger. To avoid self-entrapment in a long war, Trump needs to reject the sunk costs fallacy and change course. There is no silver bullet to victory here — indeed, no path at all to strategic victory. The best Trump can do is limit the self-inflicted damage to the U.S. military and economy by ending the war as soon as possible. @defpriorities nytimes.com/2026/04/03/wor…

@CyrusTheEcon I can disagree with the President while also objectively assessing different policies. Trump is not “all good” or “all bad”. Thinking he is will result in catastrophic critical thinking failures.

Here's some risk advice for you: Bet on the TACO. Old Orange is foolish, but consistently so.

There is a fundamental lack of understanding from the Trump administration as it relates to Persian culture. When the Miracle on Ice team beat the Soviets in Lake Placid, and the crowds are chanting “USA! USA! USA!”… that is the mentality Persians have had in their culture for centuries. The Iranians are some of the most prideful people in the world, and their patriotism rivals even that of the United States. Nothing, NOTHING, would make the United States surrender to the actions of an aggressor. We would fight to the last man without a doubt in my mind. The Iranians are the exact same. Kinetic strikes, invasion, decapitation… none of it will make any difference. The complete lack of guidance and fundamental understanding of one of the most stories cultures in world history shows gross negligence from this administrations pursuit of asinine strategic objectives. #Iran #Persia #Trump #UnitedStates #Tehran #Oil

@ianbremmer @JessicaTarlov I think this one HAS to be enforced. If he TACO’s for a third time, his legacy is over (if it isn’t already)

if you’re counting, president trump with third unilateral 48 hour ultimatum to iranian govt that refuses to negotiate or reopen strait.

As Trump (again) issues an ultimatum to Iran, I think we need to accept this that one must be carried out. Trump has TACO’d twice at least now, and a third time will make him the laughingstock of the world. With the second F-15 pilot still not being located, we are likely looking at far more kinetic operations taking place within the borders of Iran.

@annmarie Oh hey I’ve seen this movie before!

Trump says Iran has 48 hours…

@RKelanic @WSJ It’s not about insurance. The captains don’t want their entire crew to get killed. That’s why there was exactly ZERO vessels that used the previous insurance

U.S. now offering up to $40 billion in insurance for tankers to run Hormuz, in partnership with majors like LiMu, Berkshire Hathaway. Details few. Not sure there’ll be takers. Could put a big fat target on ships that accept. wsj.com/livecoverage/i… via @wsj

Very curious to see what Treasury does pertaining to GL-133 as it nears its expiration at the end of the day. With most of Asia being on the edge of emergency, it wouldn't surprise me if this was expanded to include at least India and Bangladesh.

@joshrogin He's done this repeatedly. It is a war, he just won't take the legal steps that would hold him accountable.

Trump says it’s a “war,” not just an “excursion.”

@RKelanic It's very much a disaster at this point. I hope to god that second F-15 Strike Eagle pilot is recovered safely... This could get wildly out of hand very fast if not...

@BrettErickson28 Getting worse: 2 Blackhawks were apparently struck by Iranian fire. Didn't crash, crew safe. nbcnews.com/world/iran/liv…

To no one's surprise, these ceasefire negotiations were never close to being agreed upon, and Iran has formally rejected the talks to be held in Islamabad. This, paired with the recent shootdowns of an A-10 Warthog and F-15 Strike Eagle, shows that we are nowhere close to an end of this conflict. "Seize the oil"? No Donald.

@phildstewart What talks? The Iranian's turned down the Islamabad meeting.

Trump says downing of US jet won't affect talks with Iran (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said Friday the downing of an American military jet would not affect negotiations over ending the month-old conflict with Iran, NBC News reported.

@WSJForero Then why lift sanctions on her and nobody else? While the lifting of sanctions on Delcy is mostly symbolic due to EO 13884 widely capturing her still, it WAS meant as symbolic. So... why do it if she is just "short-term"?

So Delcy's a short-termer who's actually creating a runway toward free-and-fair elections and her own removal, as Rep. Salazar explains below. Just where is this blueprint? And has someone told Delcy?

The particularly significance of this specific delisting would be out of my scope as to the relevance of this specific individual, but it does fit the broader trends of sanctions easing against Russia over the course of the Iran War. Also semi-noteworthy that this was done on a holiday, which is similar to how they announced General License U which unsanctioned Iranian oil at sea when they authorized GL-U well after market close on a Friday evening.

Yeah I mean I don't have deep understanding of Zadornov, but at least per Treasury comments, this was as a result of petitioning from Zadornov as I understand it. It seems as though he ceded control of the entity that initially resulted in his sanctioning. What is particularly notable is OFAC has pretty consistently delisted Russian individuals and shadow fleet vessels over the last few weeks. Nothing major like GL-133 or GL-134, but just "here and there" SDN removals

Can anyone explain this?