Candid Macro 리트윗함
Candid Macro
202 posts
Candid Macro
@CandidMacro
Worked for some of the biggest asset managers who never let me run with my multibagger investment ideas. Here to give them to you. Not investment advice.
가입일 Mayıs 2026
55 팔로잉27 팔로워
Candid Macro 리트윗함
Theoretically, deal signed Friday - the deal Israel is very unhappy with
60 days to negotiate the final final deal
Weeks-months of mine clearing
Ships take ~1 month to reach east Asia
In the most optimistic case, we're 90 days out from normalization
That's just the math
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@calvinfroedge Yup I made a post a couple of weeks back- they’re only supposed to be pumping a max of 4.4 million barrels from the SPR a day for 90 days…
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If you take the last 6 weeks of total EIA draws and extrapolate that forward 90 days, we are looking at drawing down another 10% or more of US liquids inventories (~1.5B barrels) and hitting safety / flow minimums on SPR
We are already at the lowest levels in at least 20 years
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@calvinfroedge Exactly, without allowing price discovery this is going to blow up in their face bigger than one could imagine.
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So even in an absolutely perfect scenario over the next 90 days, global inventories continue to draw at very high levels
Theoretically, a higher price would help get more oil into the market, but they won't let the price be high
We're assuming return to normalcy within months
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@calvinfroedge This means that markets basically priced in perfection on this deal. If anything doesn't go according to plan, well you know what this means.
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@calvinfroedge Because the average American is unfortunately a cucked MSM consumer. They’re too lazy to read and think for themselves. It’s the reason why our country is going down the drain at a rapid rate.
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Candid Macro 리트윗함
I just realized this final fake deal will be absolutely incredible for the longs. Omg. Every time I've been a part of a fake move like this, that clears out all the longside and brings in more shorts, it's like rocket fuel for the consolidators who come in and scoop up all the liquidity.
This rally is going to be face-ripping. And it's even more likely to happen extremely soon now.
#oil
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@FinanceLancelot @Bratt_world Bingo. They’ll keep releasing news at the most advantageous times for markets until they find a solution which will not be Iran signing a peace treat.
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@Bratt_world Then the Iran deal fails after OpEx on Friday June 19th when the markets are closed.
Pure orchestrated chaos
x.com/FinanceLancelo…
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
Iran has revealed the details of the 'DRAFT' Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. and Iran: 1. A complete lifting of all U.S. naval blockade within 30 days 2. Suspension of sanctions on Iranian oil 3. Immediate, permanent halt to war on all fronts, including Lebanon 4. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days 5. U.S. and its allies to present a reconstruction plan for Iran valued at $300 billion or more. 6. 60 days of talks on nuclear disagreements 7. This DRAFT excludes any talks on Iran's missile program or support of resistance fighters 8. The release of $24 billion of Iranian blocked funds 9. Half of Iran's $24 billion blocked funds must be released before final agreement talks can begin 10. Final agreement must be endorsed by the United Nations Security Council
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If Trump knows Bank of Japan and Kevin Warsh are about to crash the stock market with rate decisions this week, I'd pump the market and sign a peace deal too 🤪
SpaceX IPO is done. Mission complete.
Time to blame everyone else for the crisis.
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@EnergzdEconomy @calvinfroedge Unfortunately Trump is being taught how to play the game. Create whipsaw volatility so that it’s impossible for ppl to want to be long. This is the highest degree of manipulation I’ve seen in the market tbh.
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…and when oil prices realize Strait of Hormuz is not actually “open” and will not “open”?
OilPrice.com@OilandEnergy
Oil prices tumble as Iran and the U.S. agree on a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz! 🚢🚢🚢🚢🚢 oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-…
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I’m wondering why the MOU won’t be released. Either Iran is getting a sweetheart deal or releasing it will confirm that Trump is absolutely full of shit.
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@bennyjohnson This tweet is going to be really funny when we realize no deal is being made and whatever signing is supposed to take place was pure theater from The Don.
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This is not a meme coin.
These charts are crude oil futures.
Crashing through the center of the earth with terminal velocity.
Crude futures are now at $74 a barrel.
At $65 a barrel gas was $2 a gallon average nationwide.
We’re a few dollars away from pre-war gas prices ⛽️ 🔥
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@calvinfroedge So fighting begins again when no signing takes place Friday in the after hours?
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Is anyone actually buying this deal rn? Am I the only retard out there who thinks this is all theater to make oil incredibly hard to invest in rn despite it probably being a strong performer for the next 6 months? Also, if this deal is legit why is it going to take 5 days to sign. Didn’t realize DocuSign took so long to get to Iran…
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Candid Macro 리트윗함
I don’t want to be a buzzkill, but this isn’t the deal. It’s a memorandum of understanding. We still haven’t seen the actual text.
Open Source Intel@Osint613
NOW: "The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete. Congratulations to all! I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the United States Naval blockade. Ships of the World, start your engines. Let the oil flow! President DONALD J. TRUMP"
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@zerohedge lol you’re funny- most Christians won’t waste our time with this movie…
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Steven Spielberg Believes That Disclosure Day Will Greatly Shake The Faith Of Christians All Over The Globe zerohedge.com/geopolitical/s…
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Candid Macro 리트윗함
Rick Rule: The world has systematically underinvested in oil.
- The oil industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by >$1B/day
- This underinvestment will reduce future oil production
Oil is a cyclical industry, and a sustained period of underinvestment will lead to lower production in the future... we are still in the underinvestment period despite high prices.
In addition to the massive underinvestment:
- The industry has to fix oil infrastructure impacted by the Iran war
- The world will have to refill their SPRs
- Countries will expand their SPRs
Hormuz or no Hormuz, the supply/demand picture for oil is favorable over the long term.
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