Capital Compound
380 posts


@biancoresearch …and capital comes out of this fleecing smaller bank shareholders. Although, this doesn’t solve the core issue at play, which is that tech valuations, loan MTM, startup values, etc. are likely less than advertises which puts pressure at every point of the financial system.
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@biancoresearch …$35Bn equity that just got wiped out. Unless I’m missing something, would assume the assets have been marked to market as of 4Q’21 and should be reasonably representative of value (barring some sort of major fraud). One has to think a big play with both liquidity…
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So what happens next week?
The contagion fears from SVB are overblown.
It is an isolated event. So every breathes a sigh of relief and markets recovery. But if this happens, do we go back to focusing on the solid payroll report (record 11th beat in a row) and immediately price back in a 50 bps hike next week? If so, how far do risk markets recover if the sigh of relief is met by soaring interest rates again?
Or does the contagion get worse?
Rate plunge pricing of hikes comes out of the market. The markets get wobbly on the fears of a worsening financial system. But what about inflation? Does this tank the economy and inflation with it? Or is it a longer-term head fake that results in another round of stimulus/sugar high to boost already elevated inflation even more down the road?
Thoughts?
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@garyblack00 @elonmusk I continue to be shocked that the stock is trading -30% below takeout price despite both i) airtight US takeover laws (for good reason) and ii) EM held a town hall with the biz (that’s what one would do when about to buy a business)…maybe I’m missing something??
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If the $TWTR board is allowing @elonmusk to hold an all-employee meeting with TWTR employees, the board likely has confidence that a deal will get done, either at $54/share or some price below it to reflect Elon’s argument that mDAUs are overstated. $TSLA -1.7%, $TWTR +3.0%.
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@LolaG808 Idgaf if $QQQ down -30% if you’re telling me a heater like Sup Mate isn’t gonna be released again
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@Fred_McFeely Sounds like it’s time to start buying then
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@UpperLMM Smh, you know that’s coming out in the QoE, should’ve gotten the filet
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@SlingshotCap Completely asinine. With growth alone it will be at 3x sales in a year or two.
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@DownsideCase I’ve had great experience with A&M on smaller transactions. We use Deloitte 99% of the time on anything of scale, though.
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@Aurum_cap It was relevant 1.5 years ago, it was just a bit more fun when everything was going up 😁
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This tweet is more relevant now than it was 1.5 years ago
Capital Compound@CapitalCompoun2
1/ The convexity of growth multiples relative to the compression of the the 10yr is something worth understanding, as it contextualizes the rise of GARPy stocks (think 3ish% FCF yield, 20% FCF CAGR stocks) in the last 5 years.
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@LolaG808 ⬛️⬛️🟩⬛️⬛️
⬛️⬛️🟩⬛️⬛️
⬛️⬛️🟩⬛️⬛️
⬛️⬛️🟩🟨⬛️
⬛️🟩🟩🟩🟩
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
Just got it. Looks like a big middle finger. Describes my interactions with the game well.
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@LolaG808 I don’t think I’ve ever felt so dumb playing a game. For some reason I’m trash
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@ServoWealth Exactly how I feel about $KWEB right now. Bucket of a few the world’s finest businesses at once-in-a-decade discount. Need to remind myself that discounts like this only come when it’s painful to press “buy”…hopefully I’m thanking myself in 15+ years…patience generally wins.
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@LibertyRPF They could 10x Excel prices on any Wall Street firm
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"Microsoft is telling partners that customers will soon be charged 20% more for Office subscriptions if they prefer to keep paying by the month." 🤔 cnbc.com/2021/12/06/mic…
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@jmccart10 Free cash flow which turns into share buybacks and dividends
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@wwwwwwinter My VP behind me - “can you please stop doing that while I’m standing here”
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