MichaelIngle

Is Izadi right? His 5 points are not invalid: 1. Ending the siege ends the cumulating pressure on Trump. 2. US can build back strategic oil reserves and weapons inventories; although less rapidly for the latter. 3. Thus opening the door to the dreaded possibility of ‘a cycle of attack, ceasefire, negotiation, attack’. 4-5. Sanctions are unlikely to come off given DC political economy. On the other hand: 1. It has been established beyond reasonable doubt that the US does not have the military means to disarm Iran. This is a formidable deterrent bc it is now really hard for US security principals to convince themselves that the next time will look any rosier. 2. US magazine depth has been depleted so badly that Iran will have the opportunity to build formidable missile capabilities, air defense, fiscal room, and maybe even a nuclear deterrent before the US comes back for yet another round, even if it decides to do so given (1). 3. The war of the sieges is more dynamically competitive and less capable of one-sided pressure yielding a strategic decision than was hitherto believed to be the case. The issue is that too much oil is leaking from Hormuz. And this is not a trivial problem to solve. The only good solution is a Red Sea blockade. But that would remove the gun from the Saudi temple. Given Tehran has received checks from the Saudis, Emiratis and Qataris, it will be even more difficult to leverage coercion of the Gulf Arabs to indirectly coerce DC. 4. Money itself it a direct input into Iranian military power, as well as providing relief to the populace and thereby shoring up public morale. With $50-100 billion in the kitty, Iran can invest a lot more in missiles, drones, air defense, and naval capabilities to deter or defeat the next round of attacks if they come. With that kind of money, Iran can buy dozens of S-500 systems, rapidly stockpile hypersonic missiles, and upgrade terminal guidance for its existing inventories. 5. There is also the important question of general deterrence. Has the US experience from this round been so nasty that US security principals would think much harder next time before attacking Iran? There are no guarantees about this Administration. But I can say with some confidence that US elites have been chastened. At the minimum, even if the impossibility of ‘finishing the job’ is not admitted by many commentators, there is a near-consensus in America that the costs and difficulties of the project to gut Iran had been severely underestimated. This is the recipe for general deterrence.

@johndotwills It is true that customer service in the US can be very good, but if you retire there without social security, don’t forget to take your money for medical bills.

My experience of the States is that, yes- they are just nice. I think I’ll retire there, just for the vibes. If you want a day out, you can just leave the home and wander around talking to people and it’s like a theme park with good customer service

@tomhfh It appears the US no longer regards any other country as an ally, let alone the UK.

This is nuts. The most important story of the next decade - however it plays out.

The growing rapprochement between the UAE and Iran undermines a key assumption that has shaped much of the Israeli debate over the past year, namely, that Gulf states would move closer to Israel, expand the Abraham Accords, or even support a more confrontational regional posture toward Tehran in the wake of the war. In reality, many Gulf states are deeply frustrated with Israel. From their perspective, they were drawn into a regional crisis that imposed significant economic and security costs on them. Since the strikes on Qatar, many in the Gulf increasingly view Israel not as a source of stability, but as a potential driver of regional escalation. As a result, there is little prospect of major new normalization steps with Israel absent dramatic progress on the Palestinian issue. Gulf leaders understand that the Iranian regime is not going anywhere, and they see no strategic benefit in trying to isolate Tehran or push it into a corner. This does not mean that Gulf states have become naïve about Iran. They remain deeply aware of the challenges and threats posed by Tehran. However, their preferred strategy is de-escalation and coexistence rather than confrontation. From their perspective, maintaining channels of communication with Iran is a necessity, not a choice. #IranWar‌

@policytensor That is true, but there must be room for discussion about a revaluation. Have we ever before seen goods of the quality that China now produces being sold at such low prices? I do not believe it is because of subsidies, but the sheer efficiency of Chinese manufacturing.

Before you mobilize the West to gang up on China, pay attention to how the Chinese may respond. China has a lot of tools of coercion at its disposal. Any policy agenda that does not do this math properly should be rejected. There is no room for capture by mechanics.

@Brad_Setser I agree there is a strong case for a gradual appreciation of the Chinese yuan. The high quality of Chinese manufactured exports is increasingly out of line with their cost. The Chinese themselves are being shortchanged by this.

Indeed. A Foreign Affairs article is an essay not an academic article. I do want to encourage a bit of action rather than watch China grow for another 2 years via net exports while the world waits for a change in its growth model!

@FrankLuntz Nobody anticipated that China would slash its oil imports as it has done. But that cannot go on forever. We have to hope the Strait of Hormuz will soon reopen.

It has been six weeks since this tweet.

The most frustrating thing about the UK’s economic performance is just how straightforward the solutions are. You don’t need to completely restructure society, you just have to stop carelessly choking growth.

@andrew_lilico Relying on the EU to help us when we are not even a member sounds like free riding to me. Invasion is not the only way that Russia could threaten us.

I'd rather we spent extra on defence & less on the NHS & welfare, but I don't buy the story that there's any great *urgency* about doing so. We aren't threatened by Russia - the EU is more than capable of stopping Russia from getting anywhere near us.

We are trapped in this fiscal straitjacket bc of Starmer’s red Brexit lines and Rachel Reeves’ first budget, prioritising her promise not to raise taxes on “working people” so she hammered business instead: higher National Insurance, VAT on school fees, and IHT changes that raised a paltry £500m over ten years. The result? Business contraction, economic stagnation, and even less room to support strategic sectors like farming. Meanwhile she’s still trying to rob Peter to pay Paul including on defence spending, which could actually help growth. The single biggest uplift for Britain would be dropping the rigid Brexit red lines and getting back into the Single Market. Economists have repeatedly shown this would recover a significant chunk of the 4–8% GDP loss from Brexit. Instead, we remain isolated and exposed, farmers crushed by Hormuz-driven costs, collapsing farmgate prices, and no resilience plan. Food security is national security. We need the 1947 Agriculture Act principles restored and pragmatic reconnection with Europe. The current approach is not working. #FoodSecurityNow #BrexitReality

I suspect a fundamental redesign of regulation is necessary to escape the current political economy trap. But this isn't glamorous or quick work. And as yet there's no general answer as to what would work better. But that's the sort of challenge we now face.

@XH_Lee23 晴天修屋顶

It's in Chinese genes to plan long-term and prepare for the worst before the bad really happens. It's a century-old wisdom. Decades ago, China started building out new energy. That's why you can always see China's stunning wind farms, solar plants, and EVs everywhere. Moreover, China also boasts the world's largest strategic petroleum reserve. That's foresight.

@dasvee @lewis_goodall I fully agree. The best thing to do.

@ChinaNotes @lewis_goodall Rejoining single market would bring in £50bn+ of tax revenue

There wasn’t much of a chance Keir Starmer would have been able to fight on and win in event of a Burnham victory in Makerfield. Whatever slender hope he might have had has almost certainly disappeared after today.

@pstAsiatech @vshih2 Humanoid robots will soon become the most important (and profitable) product in the history of the world.

Why It’s Nearly Impossible to Build a Robot Without China Building on the country’s electric vehicle industry, Chinese companies are making robot parts at a scale and price point others can’t match. ...meaning humanoid robots primarily.... nytimes.com/2026/06/11/bus…

@ChicagoBoyFR French boomers are certainly different from British boomers, at least when it comes to politics and immigration. Of course there is a wide range of views and circumstances within the boomer generation.

Combien sont-ils comme eux ? Les boomers, après nous avoir imposé Mitterand en 81, vont-ils nous imposer Mélenchon en 2027?

En vacances chez les parents d’un ami en Espagne. On est sur un niveau de boomerisme rarement égalé. Je vous partage les meilleurs moments pour décompresser. Toutes les citations sont authentiques , je suis au bord de la crise de nerfs ⤵️

The limits of a UK political system that has refused for ten years to make hard decisions are reached. There are no easy answers. There is no magic money / growth tree. Leaders are going to have to make choices. And justify them.

I know this is going to annoy literally everyone but I'm going to say it anyway: Whether it's Brixton 1981, London 2011, or Belfast 2026; rioters, looters, and arsonists always try to claim noble political motivations for their thuggery. But it is always bollocks. The Brixton riots weren't really about 'racism'. The London riots weren't really about 'austerity'. And the Belfast riots aren't really about 'public safety'. There's a reason this specific kind of lawlessness, thuggery, and arson only takes place in the summer months. Because it's not about politics. It's about adrenaline. It's about fun. It's a form of grotesque entertainment for a specific type of dimwit with a high propensity to violence. Don't defend the dimwits who are literally torching their communities for laugh. Who are picking fights as a form of entertainment. Who are no more righteous in their anger than your common or garden playground bully. Up with this we must not put. From left nor from right. It's the same low IQ, temperamentally violent bullshit every single time.

How utterly disgraceful for Nigel Farage to tell the BBC that the thugs rampaging through Belfast last night had legitimate concerns. That man is a fascist. Not hyperbole. An accurate assessment.