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There is no way to reverse the decision of the war because Iran enjoys escalation dominance.
Read my latest dispatch. Stay ahead of the curve.
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Policy Tensor
53.2K posts
Policy Tensor
@policytensor
Anusar Farooqui, Founder and CEO, Systematic Portfolios LLC. Words: https://t.co/ATzak2R4A0
Katılım Eylül 2008
4.4K Takip Edilen37K Takipçiler
@Harryulojjja They used cheaper, lighter, less accurate, older missiles to deplete the interceptors first. Then they shifted to heavier, more advanced missiles.
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@policytensor Do you think Iran was using older missiles at first? Or are they using these because they've run out of other missiles?
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I keep seeing this idea. There is no evidence to suggest that the performance of specific missiles has improved. Rather what we are seeing is Iran bringing out its advanced missiles. No need to evoke nefarious Russians. There is nothing to explain.
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@Qirronis There might be an EW upgrade. But they moved to the BeiDou system after the Twelve Day War.
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@policytensor I have heard a feasible account that some of this is connected to the amount of Iran’s missile force that had been ”upgraded” to ping off BeiDou - and that the few months of low conflict allowed the Iranians to fully upgrade their missiles to that system. 🤷🏻♂️
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@ripplebrain IRGC said they used the Kheibar Shekan in the Jordan counterbase attacks.
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.@gideonrachman: “Retired US General Barry McCaffrey reckons a ground war over Hormuz would require a force of 600,000 troops and might take a year.” Citing this.
Is that what this tweet is saying. It looks very much like he’s saying Iran has 200k IRGC and 600k regular army.
Barry R McCaffrey@mccaffreyr3
Mr Trump has gotten the US into a quagmire. There is no way to open the Strait of Hormuz without a major intervention with US ground forces. It would be a significant combat operation to take down the 200,000 IRGC… 600,000 Army. Doable. Casualties. A year.
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Policy Tensor retweetledi
@ZhenDeRen Maybe if we didn’t do Charlie Wilson’s war and Soviet Union didn’t lose in Afghanistan then the Taliban wouldn’t be in power today.
A reminder that while US troops were there they allowed for boys to be raped on US bases out of respect for local allies.
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Policy Tensor retweetledi
"In order to understand why Iran enjoys escalation dominance, we have to examine what happens if the US makes different moves. Let’s do this systematically." Anusar Farooqui's substack, "Policy Tensor," great for those who like thorough analysis.
Policy Tensor@policytensor
There is no way to reverse the decision of the war because Iran enjoys escalation dominance. Read my latest dispatch. Stay ahead of the curve.
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@xusroparviz The Indo-Aryans/Indo-Europeans are a linguistic group. But the label is also acceptable for the phylogenetic descendants populations of the Yamnaya, the proto-Indo Europeans. In general, the idea that languages were independent of population history can now be firmly rejected.
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@policytensor But being Aryan is not a biological thing but linguistic and cultural?
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It must cross the neoracialist mind that Iran is Aryan. Like more Aryan than Germany.
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Just to clarify. Nazism had a testy relationship with the Nordicist consensus in physical anthropology. The Aryan ideology was a way to paper over and evade the German racial problem. The ‘science of race’ had no place for Aryans. The Nazis fudged the issue.
Policy Tensor@policytensor
May favorite part is when there was a racial panic in Nazi Germany. The Germans found out they had only a small amount of Nordic blood. Ha. See my ‘Physical Anthropology and Nazi Population Policy.’ policytensor.substack.com/p/physical-ant…
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May favorite part is when there was a racial panic in Nazi Germany. The Germans found out they had only a small amount of Nordic blood. Ha. See my ‘Physical Anthropology and Nazi Population Policy.’ policytensor.substack.com/p/physical-ant…
Hillbilly Gangster 🇺🇸🏴☠️@dervish2115
@policytensor I always found this video hilarious, but yes, the Germans aren’t Aryan. youtu.be/SDuHXTG3uyY?is…
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Most of the Jordanian population is Palestinian and totally behind the only country in the region to have confronted Israel. It’s not complicated.
David Lee@DavidLe76335983
Iran’s perfect psyop By thanking Jordanian military and public for providing US asset and personnel location intelligence, Iran is driving US military leadership crazy 😜
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The view from Tehran.
“The increased focus on Jordan may serve as part of Iran’s preparation and testing of operational concepts for more intense and precise strikes against Israel in later stages of the conflict.
Qatar and Saudi Arabia—have at times sought to impose limits on how the United States may use their facilities. Kuwait and Bahrain, however, are viewed differently by Iran because of their deeper security ties with Washington.
Should the conflict widen further, pressure on the United Arab Emirates could increase.”
wanaen.com/the-expanding-…
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“We’re getting beat up across the board.”
I am certain that we still don’t have the full story of Iran’s counterbase attacks. It certainly seems like they are still hiding a lot of losses.
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Policy Tensor retweetledi
Israelis have overwhelmingly supported the Gaza genocide, including the ones who oppose Netanyahu. Liberal Zionists fundamentally do not get this; the left’s objection is to the genocide, not to Netanyahu per se, and there is zero faith in Israel’s ability to course correct.
Dan Shapiro@DanielBShapiro
A message to Mayor Mamdani: Netanyahu is fighting for his political life. Many Israelis are sick of him and hope to vote him out. The only possible outcome of a fruitless attempt to arrest him in NYC would be to give him a political boost at home. That would be an own goal.
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Iran spends less than $90 per capita on the military, the US spends $3,000.
Rapid Response 47@RapidResponse47
.@SecRubio: "Iran is a rich country. One of the reason why Iran is in shambles is because every penny that this regime ever gets — be it through sanctions relief or through the oil they're able to get out — they invest it in Hezbollah. They invest it in Hamas... They should be spending billions of dollars building they're country, but instead they use it to sponsor terrorism."
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