Policy Tensor

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Policy Tensor

Policy Tensor

@policytensor

Anusar Farooqui, Founder and CEO, Systematic Portfolios LLC. Words: https://t.co/ATzak2R4A0

Katılım Eylül 2008
4.2K Takip Edilen34.9K Takipçiler
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Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Either the chips control don’t work, or they do. If they do, China could respond by blockading TSMC. Anyone arguing for these controls must explains how a second Hormuz can be avoided or defeated. ft.com/content/ea8c81…
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Policy Tensor@policytensor·
They mention the problem of base vulnerability but suggest no solution! Making the Strait impassable with Hellscape or whatever isn’t going to save the bases is it? As I explained in my note on the counter-base war model: “China’s military problem isn’t winning the war against Taiwan. China’s military problem is defeating the United States. For if the US can be kicked out of Asia, then Taiwan can be conquered with ease. In order to do that, China has to destroy US bases in the Western Pacific.”
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CSIS@CSIS

"The PLA would likely attempt to move troops, weapons, and matériel onto Taiwan or another territory through an amphibious landing, an air assault, airborne landings, or a combination of these means," writes @CSISDefense. More: csis.org/analysis/unite…

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Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Are you sure that we are only seeing the second and not also the first? “Signs of decline can be dramatic or they can be small. Dramatic ones include military and strategic failure that make it obvious that a state is no longer the force that it was. Smaller signs can be seen in the use of diplomatic language or tenor of conversation. We are witnessing the latter in a clear and unmistakable way.”
Phillips P. OBrien@PhillipsPOBrien

New piece. What we are seeing in China is clear and unmistakable signs of US decline. The US is praising Xi, refusing to defend Taiwan and desperate for Chinese help--and the Chinese know it and love it. This summit might be remembered in history as the end of the US Era.

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Policy Tensor@policytensor·
Extraordinary timeline. Araghchi in Delhi, Modi in UAE, and Trump in Beijing.
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Robert Barnes
Robert Barnes@barnes_law·
Trump is insider trading personally. "Several disclosed trades occurred before later administration actions, trade negotiations, or corporate developments tied to AI, defense, crypto, and brokerage markets." quiverquant.com/news/Trump+Dis…
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Policy Tensor@policytensor·
There is a small chance that the Americans can make a credible offer. The issue is the discourse in DC. It really does not seem possible to contain the lobby at short notice and get any sanctions relief through that would dissuade Iran from going for it.
Murtaza Hussain@MazMHussain

Assessing their positions it seems very plausible that Iran has already decided to proceed towards obtaining a nuclear weapon given that they have already suffered the military attacks that were the expected cost of obtaining one and there is no credible pathway for the U.S. to offer an agreement likely to be honored.

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