DeepValue Signals

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DeepValue Signals

DeepValue Signals

@DVSignals

25+ yr market vet. Macro cycles & deep-value setups in niche commodities. First on many under-the-radar plays/setups. Charts + context → conviction.

Amsterdam, the Netherlands 가입일 Eylül 2013
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Sheppo
Sheppo@VVeThePeople·
@DVSignals When you keep throwing shit at the wall, eventually one is going to stick
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DeepValue Signals
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER Went out on a limb this morning and it turned out pretty much spot on: the low came in during the first two hours of trading, right where the panic-selling hit, and price then closed back into the gray zone I flagged on the higher timeframes. That where I closed the short-term puts and went long. That said, do not chase blindly up here.. if we get back toward roughly 30 on SILJ or 75–76 on silver, that is where I get much more cautious again. More to follow.
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals

$SILVER To those in the thread saying the breakdown has failed: take another look. It is holding so far. I’ll go out on a limb here - and obviously, as always, I can, will, and have been wrong - but my primary remains that the low gets set in the first hour or two of trading, when a lot of people unfortunately panic-sell, and then we likely get a rebound from there. But that would still be a bounce, not a trend change. I am still expecting 72 or lower by quarter-end, which in this case also means month-end.

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DeepValue Signals
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER Not telling you what to do, but 71–72 looks like solid support here. I went long here. Levels are on Substack - soon, Discord. As I was just telling subscribers: don’t overtrade this move, don’t let FOMO push you into bad entries, and don’t get stupid with leverage in volatile tape like this.
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DeepValue Signals
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
Thanks, Fario! Really appreciate the kind words and the support🙏 Let’s keep building....
Fario Pierre@FarioPierre

@DVSignals I agree, I'm a paid subscriber since a few days and very satisfied. First, when I was simply following DSV, I was able to exit a position on silver before the price dropped. And then, by subscribing, I made a significant (for me) profit. Thank you.

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DeepValue Signals
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER That 71–72 magnet just keeps proving how important it is. In my three-scenario framework, late 2025, scenario one had the highest probability and called for a move back into 71–72 before year-end.. and that is what happened. We did not get the cleaner continuation higher, and while we also did not get a sustained move into the deeper levels yet, we did get the kind of overshoot / instability I warned about. And now, with two intraday breaks below 71–72, I would absolutely call those warning shots, not something to dismiss lightly...
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals

$SILVER Following up on Friday’s roadmap... That earlier scenario work was based on a shorter channel framework. This update reflects the broader 3-month structure, which carries more weight and adds important context. This is an ongoing refinement, shared in real time, to help you to the best of my ability... Updated baseline scenarios (all remain structurally bullish): Base case | controlled rejection / handle formation (~55%) First touch of a multi-decade channel lid after a near-vertical advance still statistically favours a cool-off. The most likely outcome is a pullback into the inner structure: a move back toward the ~71-72 trendline, with scope to overshoot into the 0.236 Fib (~65). Over the coming 3-month candles, extensions toward the upper 0.382 zone (~55) are possible without breaking the broader bullish structure. This would represent a classic momentum reset before a stronger second attempt. Bullish continuation | clean acceptance above the channel (~15%) For this path to assert itself, price would need to close and hold above the channel lid on the 3-month chart, followed by only a (very) shallow pullback that holds above the low-70s area. Given current momentum extremes, this remains my lowest-probability outcome but it would signal a genuine regime shift rather than mean reversion. Hard rejection | sharp failure toward deeper Fibonacci support (~30%) A more forceful rejection from the channel lid could trigger an air-pocket move toward the 0.5 Fib (~48) or even the 0.618 (~41). While uncomfortable in the short term, this would still represent a higher-low within the multi-decade channel, keeping the long-term bullish thesis intact but delaying resolution. First touches rarely decide. Second attempts usually do... Quick clarification / context: x.com/DVSignals/stat…

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Daniel Kilzi
Daniel Kilzi@DanielKilzi·
@DVSignals @deepvalue - the yellow line on this chart... Can you send a screenshot of where you're picking that line from?
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER $SLV Mostly positive and encouraging messages today, though a couple of haters are doing the usual “that turned on you” routine... which, respectfully, only tells me they did not read properly. I explicitly said the longer time frames mattered here, and that people keep getting confused by wicks. Look at the 4H / daily: structure was respected very closely. I closed my short-dated $SLV puts at the open, as mentioned, and went long. Yes, I had two earlier attempts that got stopped out for small losses, but combining the three, I’m already up roughly 25-30% on the day.. These are still minor countertrend trades for me. I do not generally love fading the trend, but after a move this extended, the bounce setup was absolutely there. And yes, that 75 to 76.5 bounce zone is still very much in play, which also lines up with $SILJ backtesting before potentially heading lower again.. That remains my primary.
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DeepValue Signals
DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER To those in the thread saying the breakdown has failed: take another look. It is holding so far. I’ll go out on a limb here - and obviously, as always, I can, will, and have been wrong - but my primary remains that the low gets set in the first hour or two of trading, when a lot of people unfortunately panic-sell, and then we likely get a rebound from there. But that would still be a bounce, not a trend change. I am still expecting 72 or lower by quarter-end, which in this case also means month-end.
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
@master3laster I do not really focus much on moving averages myself... they are lagging indicators. I am mainly looking at broader structure, support and resistance, and the way price is reacting around those levels.
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MasterBlaster
MasterBlaster@master3laster·
@DVSignals If you were a betting man would you say we go all the way down to the 200 day before the correction is over or have we bottomed?
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
💪🏼❤️
Bro Jogan@BrosefJogan

@StoicSilverBear You’re a top 5 opinion for metals and miners. Michael Oliver #1 then in no particular order there’s you, Don Durrett, Graddhy Francis Hunt and @DVSignals has skyrocketed since January when I first ran into his content as he’s been frustratingly accurate. Your posts bring peace

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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$CL #OIL Called that bullish wedge pattern yesterday morning. Mentioned the measured move to 125 is certainly on the table here. That remains my primary.
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The Oil Guy
The Oil Guy@Be4Oil·
@DVSignals Has MLP fallen enough to be considered a bargain again in your eyes? if not, how much lower?
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER A bounce here to roughly 75 to 76.5 makes sense, with 78-ish as the bigger squeeze zone if this gets a bit more legs. That first bounce target, in particular, seems fairly probable from here.
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Bro Jogan
Bro Jogan@BrosefJogan·
@DVSignals So, your TA or just rules based TA on price charts would determine, $70-$72 was not support, if anything it’s resistance now, and there’s little to zero chance this is a fakeout breakdown rubber band shot back up reaction possibly ahead? Or at least no evidence to support bottom?
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DeepValue Signals@DVSignals·
$SILVER printing some sort of a Christmas tree here... The fact that it lost support here, for me, invalidates the case for any immediate uptick.. in addition to what I posted earlier today when I said that 71–72 was lost. Stairs up, 🛗 down.
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