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@DaLastBoss88
Independent thinker. Up, down, left, right, a good idea is a good idea
가입일 Mayıs 2023
90 팔로잉178 팔로워

@FinanceLancelot The squeeze will remain until the shorts give up the ghost, at which point the cost of downside protection will be so much as to make it virtually unprofitable
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@CatholicSat As a Catholic, I can’t be more disappointed in this Pope. First of all he stated God doesn’t support those who Wage War now he’s laying the wreath for the martyrs in Algeria who-were Muslims fighting French Catholics, in a country, Algeria, that outlaws preaching about Jesus.
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@minagelina1 @nosoup4knowles Maybe, we will find out. His last presidency didn’t end too well and it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if there wasn’t another disaster of some sort at the end. I actual like most of what Trump has done btw, he just goes out of the way to make enemies
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@DaLastBoss88 @nosoup4knowles None of the presidents in the last forty years had any fear of the Lord. Trump is not especially heinous. He's loud and shows his narcissism while the others hide it.
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@BullTheoryio Looks like private credit is about to replace MBS on the Feds balance sheet
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🚨 THE FED IS NOW PRIVATELY PREPARING FOR A POSSIBLE $2 TRILLION CREDIT MARKET COLLAPSE.
For the first time in over a decade, the Fed has started directly asking U.S. banks to hand over their exposure numbers to the private credit market.
This is the exact move regulators make when they stop trusting public numbers and start preparing for real stress.
Bloomberg reported on April 11 that the Fed has formally reached out to major U.S. banks for detailed information on how much risk they're carrying from private credit firms, and whether stress inside that sector could spread into the wider financial system.
Here's why this is happening now.
Over the past few weeks, three of the largest private credit funds in the market have limited investor withdrawals:
- Blue Owl Capital restricted redemptions on its $14B fund
- BlackRock capped withdrawals on its $26B HPS Corporate Lending Fund after investors requested $1.2B in redemptions
- Cliffwater capped withdrawals on its $33B fund after investors tried to pull 14% and only 7% was allowed to exit
Three of the biggest names in the industry, all hitting redemption limits within a short period. That's not random. That's investors trying to get out faster than the funds can return their money.
At the same time, Apollo executive John Zito publicly said private equity marks are wrong across the board. He said he "literally thinks all the marks are wrong."
His estimate: loans to a typical mid size software company bought between 2018 and 2022 could recover only 20 to 40 cents on the dollar in a slowdown. That implies losses of 60 to 80 percent.
So the pattern:
- Investors trying to withdraw from private credit funds
- Funds blocking those withdrawals
- A senior Apollo executive saying valuations across the industry aren't real
- The Treasury calling a meeting with insurance regulators this month to discuss the $2T private credit market
- The Fed directly asking banks for their exposure numbers
Now here's why this matters far beyond the U.S.
Private credit has grown to around $2T over the past decade, but it's not isolated. It sits in the middle of the global financial system. Pension funds, insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and foreign banks all have money parked in these funds because they were marketed as higher yielding and more stable than public bonds.
If valuations are revised down the way Apollo's own executive is suggesting, the losses don't stay with a handful of U.S. firms. They flow directly into:
- Public and private pension funds across Europe, Canada, Japan, and the Gulf that allocated heavily to private credit for yield
- Insurance companies, some of the largest buyers of private credit whose solvency ratios are tied to these valuations
- Banks in the U.S., Europe, and Asia that lend to the private credit firms themselves, which is exactly what the Fed is now trying to measure
Most people miss this part. A private credit fund limiting withdrawals isn't just a problem for that fund. The banks lend to the funds. The funds lend to private equity. Private equity owns thousands of mid sized companies. Those companies employ millions.
When valuations at the top are wrong, the entire chain underneath is mispriced.
The exposure also ties directly into the AI infrastructure buildout. Blue Owl alone is behind some of the largest AI infrastructure deals in the world:
- $27B joint venture with Meta in Louisiana
- $15B deal with Crusoe in Texas
- $5B backing CoreWeave
Oracle now carries over $100B in debt, much tied to AI infrastructure that will take years to generate returns. Companies like CoreWeave, Crusoe, and others are funding their buildouts through private credit rather than public bond markets.
The structure works as long as AI revenue grows fast enough to service the debt.
If it slows, the stress doesn't stay in tech stocks. It moves straight into the credit side of the system, which is the exact part the Fed is now trying to get a clearer picture of.
Globally, this is also colliding with:
- Japan dealing with the weakest yen in decades and rising bond yields
- Europe trying to manage weak growth and stretched sovereign balance sheets
- China still working through its own property and local government debt problems
- A U.S. consumer already showing signs of strain at the lower end
The world financial system has been running on elevated debt and loose valuations for years. Private credit is one of the largest and least transparent parts of that system.
If the valuations are wrong, if redemptions keep accelerating, and if AI revenue assumptions disappoint, losses could cascade through pensions, insurers, and banks across multiple countries at the same time.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last month he doesn't currently see private credit issues infecting the wider financial system. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said stress is "largely limited" to the sector.
But the fact the Fed is now pulling exposure numbers directly from banks suggests the central bank wants to verify that for itself rather than take those statements at face value.
And this happens when regulators are no longer comfortable being surprised by what they find later. If stress inside this $2T market turns into actual losses, it won't stay inside the U.S., and it won't stay inside one sector.
It will move through pensions, insurers, banks, and AI infrastructure debt across the global system at the same time.




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Eric Swalwell(D) and Tony Gonzales(R) both announce their resignations today from Congress.
Both Congressmen were linked to Jeffrey Epstein type sexual issues.
I resigned from Congress because I fought President Trump to release the Epstein files and he called me a traitor and threatened to destroy me.
And to this day, no one in the Epstein files has been prosecuted.
And Congress is still a cesspool.
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@StealthQE4 True, that’s why everyone buys every dip and nothing ever happens. Trump is right when he said it would take nukes dropping to scare this market. Every day the bankers make up new tools and games to prop markets and no one blinks
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If we weren’t printing money now and the Fed actually acted like it did prior to 2008 where we just used the discount window to allow banks to fail we would have had a few recessions by now since 2008.
Today we just print over the losses and pretend everything is fine. We keep multiple corporations alive that should have died years ago.
We have instead willingly chose to allow them to keep living like zombies, rot, and barely scrape by vs letting them die and allow something stronger replace them that actually contributes something to the economy.
If we used the same tools the Fed used in the 1980s and 1990’s there’s no doubt we would be in a recession right now.
Adding to this insanity: We allow the government to grow massive deficits which just gooses GDP on top of all the money printing so no recessions can occur.
Rinse and repeat.
The whole thing is a giant farce but we allow it to go on.
Thanks for listening to my Ted Talk. 🙏
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@Webjutsu @FinanceLancelot Also according to the Catholic faith homosexuality is a sin and Communism is incompatible with Christianity, FYI
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@DaLastBoss88 @FinanceLancelot The pope is a homo commie so....
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This is a real post. Trump just posted it.
Anybody want to take a swing at the hidden message here?

Financelot@FinanceLancelot
If you're wondering why Trump is waging war with Iran right now... Watch this 👇
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@Webjutsu @FinanceLancelot Alienating political Allies and enemies alike is one thing. Going head on against the Catholic Church for no reason is just tempting fate. I want Trump to succeed but this is just self sabotage IMO
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@DonMiami3 So Trump sends Vance, the Tucker/tech bro/Wall Street guy, to get a peace deal and it’s still Israel’s fault he failed right?
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@iAnonPatriot @RealAlexJones It’s almost like his Russian handlers told him something..
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@LauraLoomer @RealAlexJones The social media influencer campaign has gotten really deep. At this point I highly suspect infowars has been a sleep Russian op for a long time
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Both of you sound ridiculous. There is no cover up. Tyler Robinson admitted to the killing.
Now you’re lying and saying President Trump is a “foreign asset”?
Get a grip. @RealAlexJones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones
@paramounttactcl I don’t do my broadcast for followers. I think Candace overall is wrong about some of her views on Charlie Kirk, but at the end of the day she’s right about a cover-up. Trump is now openly a foreign asset. We are in a different world.
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@RealAlexJones Is anyone still tuning in to watch your personal vendetta against Trump who is a total retarded leftist at this point?
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@FeelsGuy2003 Our country has been sinking deeper and deeper into socialism with more and more welfare for a while and getting worse
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Communism hasn’t been a potent political force since the fall of the Soviet Union.
It’s judaism and their neoliberal enforcers that’s making life impossible for Christians.
Communism is a safe edgy catchall you use to feel like you’re doing something.
Jack Posobiec@JackPosobiec
Christians should unite against the Bolsheviks
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@FinanceLancelot @FmrRepMTG Need to wait what the big guy says before all hope is lost. Opening bell is a long way off.
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@FmrRepMTG This is really bad.
It means an invasion of Qeshm island next weekend when the USS George W Bush and the Boxxer assault group arrive in theatre.
x.com/FinanceLancelo…
Financelot@FinanceLancelot
As I said, the 1st U.S. invasion of Iran is designed to fail. That will be the blood sacrifice (excuse) for the transition from a limited operations conflict to all out war against Iran.
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