Value Downunder

⚡️ “Index of Deep Dives” Each week I try to do a deep dive on an #ASX stock that I am considering to buy, to add to my watch list, or to update my research on a stock in my watch list. Here is a list of recent deep dives compiled in one easy spot👇 twitter.com/i/moments/1377…

Overall, a higher price and some competitive bidding would be nice, but current value unfortunately is probably 'fair'. If you enjoyed this, bash the like / retweet / follow buttons. Questions and feedback always welcome. DYOR. Disclaimer, I'm long GNX.

To be honest, ever since Skip's bid fell through and Genex have needed to finance the pipeline of projects themselves, they've been advertising themselves as a takeover target. No surprises.

Is J-Power's $9513.TO bid for Genex $GNX $GNX.AX a fair price at 27.5c per share? 🔋 It's time for a closer look. 🧐

@IllistromEmpire J-Power already owns an equity stake and substantial project stake, so as an insider, less likely to pull out following. Management will sell and take ongoing corporate role probably. Just reckon the time for M&A in long duration renewables seems pretty solid..

Genex $GNX $GNX.AX get's another takeover bid, at a 2c premium to Skip back in 2022 which fell through when rates went up. This time I reckon J-Power and the Board will get the job done, with 27.5c being around fair value imho. 🥳 twitter.com/DownunderValue…

@neke86_ With all those de-risking events, and their pipeline stuffed to the gills but insufficient capital to finance them, no wonder J-Power is getting in on the action. Good one! 🤓🍿

@RonShamgar Not so black and white in my opionion. Earnings per share down after the cap raise / dilution / acquisiton. $8m wrote down in amortisation on that acquisition didn't help the results either. Still, a decent operating performance. (Held)

The market is sleeping on $CLG Upgrade today and a strong result! Spits cash Very profitable And now can do more acquisitions or pay dividends It’s worth at least 60 cents (Held)

@TheFinCurator @Mathan_Soma I don't believe so. They have stages of capital investment and conversion to orchards, so there is some risk and sunk costs there if that doesn't eventuate.

@DownunderValue @Mathan_Soma Hmm I thought they were taking on a portion of the operating risk as it wasn’t fully leased and they were starting up the orchards themselves? Could be wrong

Rural Funds $RFF $RFF.AX with a strong update; asset evaluations up significantly led by their once-maligned macadamia. NAV up from $2.93 to north of $3.14, trading at $2.15. 🥜 💪

@neke86_ @Mathan_Soma You can fade some of the valuation of plants in the ground particularly almonds, and cattle stations perhaps because they're post peak prices now.. but by and large, yep. But a 35% discount to NAV is very high historically for RFF.

@TheFinCurator @Mathan_Soma I don't know reallyy. They don't sell the macadamias, they lease the land they're grown on. Increasing valuations drives up their rental yields (based on CAPEX and a combination of CPI and valuations) and lowers their gearing, so both your concerns getting, well, less concerning.

@DownunderValue @Mathan_Soma Have mac prices increased since last reporting period? Cash flows and gearing are the biggest risks to me

@Mathan_Soma Good choice. Confirmation bias here, but it was my pick for 2024. I hope we will see AFFO exceed dividends this year, a rerate of macadamias, and the NAV discount diminish substantially. 🤔

@DownunderValue RFF has started an upgrade cycle after being thrown out on macro worries like all farming/agriculture exposures. The classic turnaround potential in the chart. One of our recent exposures! 🤔

@berthon_jones Yep, lots of change. The Lebanese place opposite Crescat is quite good. But I am old school and often end up back at Gallery for their curries.

@DownunderValue Wadiya hot buttered cuttlefish = the best. Tonnes of new places along the coast since we were here last.

This was a good little tip, if you’re in Sri Lanka.