@respeculator @dcb30a Look up INPEX acreage deal with Daly Waters (Brian Sheffield). First step to getting some serious capital into the basin.
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TFC
2K posts
So $WDS.AX has gone another ~30% since this post & the shorts haven't covered at all w/ >$2.5B short which is deeply underwater + they now owe the ~$1.20 gross div in this period.. yeah they are genuinely f**ked.. $STO.AX $KAR.AX $OXY $CVX $BRK.AX #OOTT #gas #coaltwitter #energy
Coal@LukeyTrags
Oh dear it's shambles for the shorts.. 18month highs for Australia's largest energy company $WDS.AX $WDS #OOTT #oil #energy
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@respeculator Woodside isn’t 250. More like 180-190. Rest is trading which is 10% margin on avg
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Santos $STO.AX - A$20bn, 120mboe/yr - was $30/boe margin so 5.5x.. now maybe $60/boe margin so half that, long life assets and all that.
Woodside $WDS.AX - A$50bn, 250mboe/yr.. same story as above af A$60/boe is A$15bn earnings so A$50bn seems v cheap
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@JavierBlas There was a material premium in Brent already priced in. One of the most flagged potential conflicts in history. Don’t think of the one day move think of the move from 60…albeit if Hormuz does not open soon then energy products will move a lot higher. Clearly this is not priced
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WTI settles at $71.23 a barrel, up 6.28%
Brent settles at $77.74 a barrel, up 6.70%
How does the one-day % price move compares historically (only positive moves)?
For WTI, it was the 121st largest (data from 1984)
For Brent, it was the 73rd largest (data from 1988)
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@LukeyTrags 10-15/t increase to the QLD future cost target. At c13+ million tonnes that’s well over 100m in additional cost coming through consensus.
Unless macro / coal prices push higher I think it’s a solid avoid for now until it all flows through the markets numbers.
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If the morning session dips on the headline numbers it will be bought as the smart money is forward looking.. I was thinking a 5c div internally & they paid out 4c.. Remember, met + thermal have ripped quite hard since Dec 2025.. the March + June quarters will be solid & the catalysts for ATHs.. $WHC.AX $WHC #coaltwitter
Coal@LukeyTrags
Anticipating pretty underwhelming bottom line $WHC.AX numbers for 1H FY26 which is up to 31 Dec 2025 as this was a much weaker pricing environment for both met + thermal coal. I am more interested in forward looking quarters & commentary.. #coaltwitter
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@respeculator Thoughts on emerging plays in Taroom trough / Beetaloo?
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If there’s one market that isn’t going down any time soon it’s the Aussie east coast gas market.. $AEL.AX hitting new 3yr highs. Provided the current exploration program goes per plan you have ~36PJ/yr @ $10/GJ+ margins over 10yrs+ (a lot of fixed priced contracts so low volatility earnings)… ie $360m pa for A$1bn EV.
Likewise $BPT.AX should do 40PJ/yr maybe at slightly better margins. Trades at A$2.6bn and has some LNG and oil Assets to boot.
Anthony Ives@AnthonyIves
#ASX #XAO 3 year highs $AEL 5 year highs $AAR $TVN all time highs $RIO $SXE Capital & dividend adjusted
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@ARichLifeAu Very well said mate. You’re never as smart as you think you are on the way up and visa versa. Keen to see how a lot of these companies report. The patient investor always wins in the end 👍🏼
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A Few Reflections On the #ASX #Saaspocalypse hitting share prices of $WTC $PME $TNE etcetera
arichlife.com.au/reflections-on…
GIF
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$360: Life360 flexing category leadership as the shorts discover—far too late—that betting against it feels like eating vindaloo for a month straight. Regret. Fire. No relief… +25%… #DYOR #ASX
The Pup@pup_st
$QOR- No cash here Robbo! You want to own $360… even more so given the pullback, albeit has more to go. Own the category leader… #DYOR #Asx
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@ShaneOliverAMP Costs and subsiding the loss of gross profit in tobacco / other non fuel
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An interesting divergence between global oil prices which have been trending down since 2022 (even in $A terms) and yet Australian petrol prices have been trending sideways since then => higher margins (for refineries, retailers?), transport costs
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@Mathan_Soma What do producers start doing with the cash now? Who is getting bought.
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Spot #gold has passed US$4100 and A$6300 for the first time in history. Most Aussie gold miners have AISC around A$2000-2200 level. They are swimming in cash with nearly 200% profit margin. It may be different this time! 🤔
Mathan Soma@Mathan_Soma
Spot #Gold is up over 100 times in 55 years. New all time high and moving higher. We live in interesting times! 🤔
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@onslowshipping I just did a quick google search and the ship said tanker - so wasn’t sure if it was a gas tanker. Also says it’s bound for Netherlands. Just asking out of curiosity not saying your information is incorrect !
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@respeculator AGL saying they can replace earnings from generation now with batteries etc. what do you think about that? The utilisation of batteries ste a lot lower than coal
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To add to below on data centre energy demand.. this chart from $AGL.AX today which combines data centre with the rest of the show.
First chart from the regulator shows Aussie electricity peaked in 2008 at ~210TWh to now sit around ~190TWh (or 210TWh gross with solar PV). No baseload has been built post 2007 and most of the baseload generators keeping the lights on are 40yr old plus.
The politicians keep fighting over energy policy - you can’t build nukes (too expensive) and you can’t build coal (cLiMaTe). They even talking importing LNG (🤡). If the trend reverses as the AGL chart (2nd) says and no baseload gets built.. you have a 💩🥪
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
Shocking stat of the day: Data center energy consumption has reached a record 5% of total US power demand. This increase has been driven by the rapid adoption of digitalization and AI technologies. This percentage is now estimated to more than DOUBLE over the next 5 years, according to McKinsey. Additionally, data center load is set to account for up to 40% of net new demand added until 2030. Overall, electricity demand for data centers is expected to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of +23% through 2030. Energy will soon be the AI bottleneck.
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@respeculator This could be lawyers fault - QLD duty is calculated including contingent value. Typically deals are structured in a way which makes the contingent value hard to calculate which usually gets it excluded. Agree it is pretty stupid …
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$SMR.AX paid effectively ~US$30m upfront for Eagle Downs.. it does have potential liability in the future of some ~US$120m based on if it ever gets into production (acts as a production based royalty)... there is a big if on this...
QLD govt charges stamp duty of US$24m on the deal???
Is there a govt that bites the hand that feeds them more than the QLD govt and coal miners? 🤡
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@respeculator Sto 10$ move in Brent 30% move in earnings. Still not time. Aussie crapcos have nothing on US EU majors.
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The temptation to switch out the gold positions to energy is strong. But we all end up as road kill at some stage.. these are the times markets are interesting 👀 👀
Respeculator@respeculator
Will never forget the euphoria of commodity bros as Russia/ukraine broke out in early 2022 and their precious commodities ripped. Nickel was the big one doing a short squeeze on Norilsk being a non supplier. 3 months later and all commodities ex energy were getting whacked as a squeeze between rates higher, growth lower developed. “Careful what you wish for” was the theme then. No euphoria now so we gucci. Hard Assets FTW.
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@Mastermines_CN What’s your view on upstream production from China? Some consultants have massive domestic numbers over next few years which drive large surpluses
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Many investors are still debating whether #Lithium will turn in 2025.
Since I'm focused on #China. I will run some simple calc.
Greenbushes CGP3 is expected to be commissioning mid 25. So let's say production is capped 50% in 2025 - 250kt #spodumene SC6%
We're looking at additional supply for 500k units EV on 50 KWh basis. This forecast amount has already been consumed by the 1.8 million EVs sold in China in Jan & Feb 25, up 50% YoY.
However, there has been quite some oversupply in the year or two, so we should expect the inventory to slowly diminish, creating the base for an undersupply in the years to come. Let's also not forget GB operation has storedover 200kt of SC6 that they produced over 2024, which was sold on early 2025 - so it's still getting processed within the supply chain, slowly making its way downstream.
Few greenshoots in Lithium we're already seeing - shuts(or plans to return to market) in lepidolite in China, and potential shuts in African mines due to low(or negative) profitability. I should certainly count the hardrock mines in Oz as well.
We've also got CCP announcing "Old for New" policy in favour of EVs to push spending. The sales figures in EV in the coming months should paint a clearer picture for Lithium demand in China.
If positive, it should create the base for an undersupply in the years to come.
Feel free to point out any flaws I may have in my logic.
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@respeculator Noooooo you look are pre provision operating profit PPOP ;)
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$CBA.AX is making around $10bn NPAT on 2bn SOI ie A$5/sh.
But in that $10bn NPAT.. which is essentially 2% NIM on $1 trillion of loans ($20bn) less some expenses and taxes.... sits just a 7 basis point "loan impairment expense". So just 0.07% of their $1trn loans are bad ($700m). What happens if that goes to 21bpts like historical ($2,100m)? 🤔 Long way to 14x EPS.
Yes - I am a banking furu
Respeculator@respeculator
Fair value for $CBA.AX is A$70/sh… which is 14x EPS at A$5/sh. It trades at A$156/sh.
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If DGT is paying out almost all FFO as dividends and already has 35% gearing. How will it fund any growth?
Di pills picking his lips hoping the herd stays long enough for another 2 billion of equity injection. AUM up, development fee, new debt fee, etc etc
ASXlongshort@ASXlongshort
DigiCo $DGT Datacentre REIT. Like all stocks - what have you got now and what's your growth profile? Top line, $5 IPO for a $2.186b EV and coy guided $163m pro-forma EBITDA for 26x EV/EBITDA (without any scrutiny). That's on 67MW with 9MW spare (76MW) and a growth profile to have 238MW. Assuming it's all real, how does it comp is probably the next question.
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