Gildemandias

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First Day: Iran's Retaliation Larger Than Expected, but Israel Maintains Firepower The US, lacking the range for carrier-based air strikes, limited itself to launching Tomahawk missiles. Based on just two different videos, both showing more than 20 Tomahawks launched, I estimate the US expended 10–15% of its Tomahawk inventory on the first day, hitting dozens of targets in Iran. The Israeli attacks were even more aggressive, with two major waves on the first day striking over 200 targets on Iranian territory. However, all strikes were launched from Iraqi airspace, indicating some continued Israeli caution regarding Iran's air defenses. Iran is seeking to eliminate the American AN/TPY-2 radars, but these structures are highly mobile, with US crews able to relocate more than once a day. To locate them, Iran would need Chinese assistance and considerable agility. Both Israel and the US heavily invested in drone operations for terrain monitoring to hunt for Iranian missile launchers, at least two large-scale launchers were identified and destroyed. There are still no reports of naval combat, which also suggests that Iran's navy (with over 30 warships) remains largely intact, as does the entire US fleet, which is staying well back in the Arabian Sea. On this first day, several strikes targeted mountain base exits to obstruct and delay the movement of Iranian launchers. Iranian radars were also hit, though in limited numbers. Iran has improved its guerrilla tactics for radars, which may be helping. Israel likely also worked to obstruct known silo coordinates. I see Israel repeating tactics from the last 12-day war. On the Iranian side, the focus was on US bases in Gulf countries. At least 6–8 bases are under heavy bombardment, what I calculate as damage already in the billions of dollars, given that the Qatar base alone cost $10 billion. Air defenses at these bases were largely exhausted on the first day, with few Patriot batteries still operational and showing low efficiency, as some footage demonstrates. Iran also destroyed an AN/FPS-132 radar in Qatar and a radome in Bahrain, which probably housed a high-altitude radar or SATCOM system, both high-value assets. Overnight, Iran is expected to maintain the missile pace, focusing on Israel and additional US bases. I believe Iran will launch around 100 long-range missiles during this period. This is a protracted conflict. On the first day, the Strait of Hormuz was already closed, as we had predicted here, and it has strong potential to drag in other Gulf countries. On this first day, everything has unfolded as we anticipated over the last 15 days.

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