Est
2.9K posts
Est
@Estszy
Crypto writer | Degen | Cutting through all the BS to make crypto understandable.
🚨 MASSIVE Resistance Zone for #Bitcoin at $78,000 BTC is running headfirst into TWO major on-chain levels at once: 📊 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis 📊 True Market Mean Both converging right around $72-78K. Here's why this matters👇 This is the average buy-in price for everyone who bought in the last ~155 days. Many of these holders have been underwater since buying near the highs late last year and when price returns to their cost basis, the instinct is to sell and "get out even." That's what makes this zone a natural wall of resistance. Supply from relieved holders flooding the market. BUT here's what's interesting right now 👀 Price hasn't been smacked down hard. No violent rejection. Just a minor retrace and consolidation right at the level. That's actually bullish. If sellers were in control, we'd see a sharp rejection candle and a fast move lower. Instead, we're grinding sideways which means demand is absorbing the supply. Now look at what's happening in the derivatives market 🔥 Funding rates are massively stacked towards shorts right now. Bears are piling in, actively trying to push this thing down... and they can't. If BTC can continue absorbing selling pressure on spot and hold this zone, any push higher starts to squeeze those short positions. And once liquidations start cascading, they feed on themselves. Forced buyers driving price into more liquidations into more forced buyers. 🔑 The longer BTC holds here without breaking down, the more the sell wall thins out and the more explosive the move higher becomes when it comes. Failure to break down substantially here = we're going higher, sooner rather than later 🚀 Bears are leaning heavy and losing. Watch this space closely. Credit @_Checkmatey_ for charts + analysis!
FACT: New Fed Chair = BITCOIN DUMP Look at the pattern: Every time a new chair takes over, the market rolls over. Yellen → major $BTC drawdown Powell → same story. Not a theory. A pattern. We're walking into another transition right now. The market isn't pricing this in yet. Narratives flip fast in these windows. Prepare, don't react. NOTIS ON.
WARNING $BTC HOLDERS. The next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, could be sworn in as early as May. Throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, whenever a Fed Chair has been sworn in or renewed their term, Bitcoin has experienced significant declines: Yellen: nearly -80% Powell (first term): -70% Powell (second term): -60% Now: ??? It would be unrealistic to expect no drop at all. That said, Bitcoin also tends to decline during midterm election years, so not all of the downside can be attributed to new Fed Chairs. However, markets do tend to test new Fed Chairs during the first year of their term.
As you can see here there is a break of structure when price of btc closed several daily candles below the rising support line. IMO if we continue to close below it we will see further downside to the lower horizontal supports at 65.6 and at 62.9 Only time will tell
