xB | Expected Birmingham

Birmingham were told possession wins promotions. The data backed it up. Promoted sides tend to have more of the ball. Fix the possession, build a promotion side. 38 games in, that idea has a data problem. Thread 🧵 #BCFC

Always the issue with signing Vicente — how do you play him and Roberts together, or alternate them enough? Wrote about this in January 👇 xbirmingham.substack.com/p/how-carlos-v… The only way I see them co-existing is something like this. 3-4-3. Roberts not a natural 10 tho.

@willviles 💯

@ExpectedBham Look at Kyōgo. I will die on the hill that if we’d have stuck with him, it would have changed.

FFS. I don't want to keep banging on about it, but Ali Ahmed would have been a good signing for Blues on the left. Rumoured £2m fee.

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Hopefully one day for #BCFC

Because that matters enormously. If success is built on a system around the coach — data, recruitment, structure — you're not just hiring a manager. You need to understand what you're actually buying. The wider team can be as important as the coach themselves.

But here's the nuance I keep coming back to — I don't know the circumstances these coaches operate under. Is the coach the main man? Or are they part of a wider structure, like Brentford?

Honest answer? It's complicated. 🧵 First — I don't think it's as simple as getting rid of Davies. There are good things there. Some that need development. Sacking a manager doesn't fix structural problems.

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Goals from Max Dean and Ferraro in Belgium. Dean coming back from an ACL injury. Moved to Genk from MK Dons in '24. Ferraro playing for Dender, currently bottom of Belgium Pro League. Think he could do a job in the Champ - can play anywhere on the left. Primarily LB/LWB.

@sunnymehta0723 Tough one. Data says chances created matter as much as finishing — it's partly random. Hard to defend publicly though. He's also been mismanaged — we don't play direct or fast enough to suit him. Could still offer something, but only if the system changes.

@ExpectedBham What are your thoughts on Kyogo? As I understand, strikers should be judged on xG accumulation. He has done this but unfortunately not put them away, but worth pursuing him since the xG model says finishing is to some extent random.

Exactly this. The data on manager impact is more nuanced than most people think — and asking the right questions matters more than reaching for the obvious answer. I've got something written for Weds on this. 🔵⚪

@Bluenose_Andy No disagreement on that from me. Shankly knew exactly what he wanted to see and when it wasn't there. That clarity is the point. Data doesn't replace judgment, it sharpens it. The best clubs use both imo.

@ExpectedBham How did Shankly, Herrera, Sacchi, Chapman, Michels know if things were going well? “No fear” is broad, but realising a philosophy isn’t reliant on data. Stats enhance understanding but not everything can be reduced to Quant. Qualitative insight, context and judgment matter too.

Everyone's talking about Chris Davies' future. Whatever happens next, there's a question that needs answering first — and if we skip it, we'll likely be having this exact conversation again next season. 🧵 #BCFC

@Bluenose_Andy Fair point — but wins and points are lag metrics. They tell you what happened, not why. The question is what leading indicators Blues track to know they're on the right path before the results show up. If "no fear" can't be measured, how does anyone know when it's missing?

@ExpectedBham The long-defined metrics that are mission-critical are Wins, Points, Goals. 'No fear' is a broad philosophy to take initiative, aggressively press, attack and control possession. Data helps and we can quantify those, but not everything in a philosophy will be about a KPI.