Formula Data Analysis

It was shocking to realise that 20% of the current #F1 grid is following my page! 🤯 (4 out of 20) Verstappen was the first to do so (in 2022), and since then he’s always won the WDC! The power of data analysis? 🤣👀 @Max33Verstappen @FranColapinto @PierreGASLY

It's confirmed now: NO #F1 team changed the length of the 8th gear from testing to racing! (I explain how I computed that in this video!) This means that McL has the shortest ratio, and Audi by far the longest: the former could increase PU efficiency and thus power on slower tracks (closer-spaced gears→can operate around max-efficiency point), the latter on fast ones Watch the video for my deep explanation! 👉 youtube.com/watch?v=UVI-lp… Made via @JMP_software #YesJMPcan

I've simulated Mercedes's rumoured ~10kW ICE power advantage! 💡 -ICE power constant -ERS drops from max to 0 over 5s 📉 In the race, Mercedes can: ⚫️On one lap, use the 10kW stronger ICE to save 10kW of ERS deployment 🔵On the next, deploy the energy saved previously: +10kW ICE power AND +10kW ERS! Notice that, even when ⚫️ saving energy, they're still faster than 🔴Ferrari: ERS power fades over time, ICE power remains! A stronger ICE means: -Higher average power -More strategic flexibility -Harvest more while still faster, then deploy for a bigger gain -Run more downforce (better cornering and wear); the drag increase will equalise the top speed, yet acceleration remains better ICE power is the key to success in 2026 Made via @JMP_software #YesJMPcan #F1 [Data: 780kg mass, 0.6m2 CdA, 1.225kgm-3 rho, 95% transm. efficiency. Max ERS power set to ~300kW at 200km/h due to traction/energy/wear compromises]

The first ADUO tier is unlocked following a >2% difference in performance, which seems to be the case Closing the gap seems to be unlikely through ADUO alone, maybe it can happen depending on whether the new technical directive hits Mercedes, but surely they can decrease the gap significantly

@FDataAnalysis @AeroTechVH Do Ferrari stand any chance of first qualifying for the mid season Aduo? And secondly do you think they can close that gap on the ICE side of things if they do qualify for it? @FDataAnalysis @AeroTechVH

@AeroTechVH Agreed, feels closer to 15kW than 10kW from a couch perspective

@FDataAnalysis I'm pretty certain the advantage is around 15 kW to be honest, with the rest of Top Speed difference due to aero. Nothing tangible to back it up with, just pure gut feeling

@MenInBlackNZ @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 10kW is ~14hp

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 How much BHP does it provide?

@pranav_k96 @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Thanks ❤️

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Amazing analysis, exactly why I follow you! 🍻🔥 RB seems messed up if the rumours are true that they're 20 kgs overweight then

@CavalierRosso @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 I’ve written the reason at the end of the post: Max ERS power set to ~300kW at 200km/h due to traction/energy/wear compromises Using a slightly higher figure would not change things much anyway

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Just dont understand why they would have 310 KW and Ferrari 300. Isn’t it 350 ?

@BasIndian @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Thanks! But I love my job too much to leave it 🤣

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 @ScuderiaFerrari can explore to hire this account admin. Incredible analysis always and a true ferrari fan…

@vikkybhai1906 @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 On the contrary... it would amplify the impact of any ICE power difference!

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 So just reducing overall energy allowed to recover should bring everyone on par mostly since battery is 4.5MJ.

@DRSunlocked @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 I hadn’t read it, but even more glad that I posted this then ahah

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Seems you read my yesterday’s post and decided to put an end to all speculation 😅

@R3DandWhite @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 But only as long as the ICE power deficit remains this large

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 This means we have no chance This year

@Andrea53602806 @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Compensare del tutto la vedo dura, però sarebbe estremamente utile. Comunque non escludiamo che i due motori possano avvicinarsi nel corso della stagione

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 Se Ferrari toglie quei 10kg che si dice abbia in più di peso e inoltre migliore efficienza aereo, riesce a compensare la minore potenza del motore termico?

@vikkybhai1906 @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 10 kW more ICE power means that, for the same power, 10 additional kJ can be saved per second while having the same performance It’s one additional MJ for free every 100s spent full throttle

@FDataAnalysis @F1 @ScuderiaFerrari @Charles_Leclerc @LewisHamilton @GeorgeRussell63 10 KW means nothing, need to see it terms of MJ. So how MJ savings is possible by 10KW difference. TBH not deep analysis.

@YacineKmsato @ScuderiaFerrari @F1 Russell did have a good race, I’d say as good as Leclerc’s, in fact he finished the race in front of him and HAM (although behind ANT) Ferrari do need a better PU to be competitive: driving well and not making strategic mistakes does not suffice

@FDataAnalysis @ScuderiaFerrari @F1 What did your data tell you this time that Russell should do like Leclerc?

🟥Ferrari had no chance in the #ChineseGP: 🟦Mercedes were the 'Kings of Wear', as their laptimes NEVER trended upwards! 1st stint (🟡Mediums): Mercedes held a constant pace, while Ferrari showed degradation 2nd (⚪️Hards): Mercedes first ran steadily, then started pushing, improving by ~1 s/lap (despite increasingly worn tyres!). They gained up to 0.9 s/lap on Ferrari and later ran sub-1:36 laps Ferrari's wear hurt by: -In-team battles -Pushing harder in corners to offset the power deficit -Possibly running less downforce due to lower PU output -Possibly, Car traits/setup that stress the tyres more Cars now start with ~70 kg of fuel (vs ~100 kg before). Empty vs full tank is worth ~2s, not ~3s, yet Mercedes still improved their pace through the stint In the end, it didn't matter: Mercedes were unreachable. This feels like 2015 again: Mercedes fastest, Ferrari clearly 2nd, and no other real #F1 title contender

@brakeboosted @ScuderiaFerrari @F1 Agreed 100%

@FDataAnalysis @ScuderiaFerrari @F1 A title fight with Mercedes is obviously highly improbable, but I think it's imperative the team be able to showcase the ability to move the car forward throughout the season to close the gap. They need to prove it to themselves more than they need to prove it to us.

@Norbert_pl1905 Depends on the italian you ask! Me? Lewis 100% ahaha (as I support the team and I’m not into drivers much)

@FDataAnalysis would Italians prefer Antonelli WDC or Lewis WDC?

PACE PER TEAM (1 STOPS) #F1 #ChineseGP 1️⃣ Mercedes 2️⃣ Ferrari +0.64s/lap 3️⃣ Alpine +1.32 4️⃣ Haas +1.43 5️⃣ Racing Bulls +1.81 6️⃣ Audi +1.83 7️⃣ Williams +2.47 8️⃣ Cadillac +3.51 🗒️Key points: -Mercedes: strong enough chassis for their PU advantage to dominate on pace and straights. They may detune the ICE in the next 3 races to push rivals outside the ADUO window (based on race-estimated PU power), preventing engine development -Ferrari: best chassis and clear 2nd-best car. Much worse tyre deg than Mercedes; more power would let them run higher downforce and improve wear. Right now, they must push harder in corners, hurting tyres. -Alpine FINALLY competitive! Best of the rest with Haas, both quicker than HAD’s RBR -Cadillac is slow but at least finishes races, unlike Aston and VER’s RBR. McLaren couldn’t even start: from WCC/WDC winners to just 1 point ahead of Haas! This season will hinge on politics more than ever: ICE/ERS power-split debates (to reduce clipping), the compression-ratio saga, and possibly teams limiting power to block rivals’ concessions... teams which are best at lobbying will have a critical advantage!

Writing this made me realise that Antonelli wasn't even born when the last Italian before him (Fisichella, 2006 Malaysian GP) won the last F1 race! 😳 He was born over 5 months later