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Tit For Tat
99 posts
Tit For Tat
@GameTheoryPP
nothing posted is investment advice, just me documenting my research. do your own research.
가입일 Temmuz 2013
363 팔로잉300 팔로워
@FriendlyCapMgmt In my replies I said I misspoke. The meeting was about NN, not with them.
English
@GameTheoryPP What are you talking about?
NextNav did not meet with OIRA??
English
Today at 1:30 p.m. CST, the FCC will be announcing its April agenda. I’m expecting NextNav ( $NN) to be on there, if not this month, then next month.
In my opinion, it’s just a matter of time. NextNav’s largest debt holder is Josh Lobel, CEO of the Milken Family Office, who also sits on President Trump’s National Intelligence Advisory Board and advises on these kinds of issues. That means the CEO of a firm holding most of NextNav’s debt also advises the President, who in turn appoints and oversees FCC leadership, including Commissioner Brendan Carr.
In addition, OIRA met with NextNav about a week ago, which is a standard step every NPRM must go through before it can be cleared for approval.
I wrote a probability analysis yesterday not taking any of the points made above into account to keep things as conservative as possible, see dropbox link: dropbox.com/scl/fi/pigk85u…
Tit For Tat@GameTheoryPP
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@popartpopp @MGardnerDA1235 No, it can be announced any month. It’s just agreed upon by a good few analyst that it’s likely to happen in April or May.
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@MGardnerDA1235 Should be on it for May then. Disappointing .
English
Sorry that was poor phrasing OIRA had a meeting about NN, not directly with them.
OIRA review is a required step for a significant NPRM. They meet with both supporters and opponents and then decide whether the draft can move ahead. Just because they had an opposition meeting doesn’t mean anything besides that the plan is moving forward in my opinion l.
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@GameTheoryPP How do you know NN met with OIRA? There was no meeting notice. The 3/30 meeting was opposition
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I post a lot about high-beta companies, but the other side of that trade matters just as much: the hedge.
If AI drives a deflationary shock, weaker demand, falling prices, and rising unemployment, markets tend to sell growth assets and push policymakers toward easier policy and lower rates.
That’s where a duration hedge like $TLT becomes interesting. A reset in long term interest rates can generate gains in Treasuries at the same time high beta stocks and BTC are taking a hit.
It’s been good to see people like @infraa_ digging into similar themes and laying out the case in more detail.
Robert (infra 🏛️⌛️)@infraa_
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II. WHY VENTURE GLOBAL ( $VG)
The macro tailwinds benefit every low cost gas and LNG player. Venture Global is the aggressive, high beta way to express this thesis.
First, the asset base is large and real. Venture Global already has Calcasieu Pass LNG in operation and Plaquemines LNG in ramp up. Calcasieu Pass is a roughly 12 MTPA facility in Cameron Parish, Louisiana, that has already exported 500+ cargoes. Plaquemines LNG, in Plaquemines Parish, is in phase 1 and is expected to reach around 27 MTPA of nameplate capacity at full initial buildout. The company has publicly discussed and filed for brownfield expansion that could push Plaquemines to roughly 58 MTPA, which would make it the largest LNG export facility in North America by capacity. CP2 LNG, another project in Cameron Parish, has Phase 1 sanctioned at around 14 to 15 MTPA with project financing in place and full US export authorization to non FTA countries. Beyond that, projects like CP3 and Delta LNG are in earlier development, and independent analyses that compare Cheniere, Sempra, and Venture Global have suggested VG could ultimately control north of 100 MTPA of nameplate capacity once everything is built out.
Second, Venture Global’s construction model is a genuine edge. Instead of relying on a few massive, custom on site liquefaction trains, they use mid scale modular liquefaction trains, each on the order of 0.6 MTPA. This delivers several advantages: faster build times, reduced on site labor risk, lower capex per tonne, and the ability to phase commissioning. They can bring the first few trains online, start producing LNG and generating revenue, while additional trains are still being installed. Performance testing data from Plaquemines has indicated they can run significantly above nameplate, up to around 140% of rated capacity in some test periods. That kind of operational uplift compounds the economics of a low cost modular base.
Third, the financial ramp is already visible.
Operating and ramping facilities at Calcasieu Pass (12 MTPA) and Plaquemines (targeting 27 MTPA initial capacity, with plans to expand the site up to 58 MTPA via brownfield additions).
. A sanctioned CP2 project with 14.4 MTPA of capacity in Phase 1 and additional phases planned on top of that.
. A modular construction model using 0.626 MTPA mid scale trains that has already demonstrated up to roughly 140% of nameplate capacity in performance testing at Plaquemines.
. Trailing twelve‑month revenue of about $10.85 billion and trailing EBITDA of about $4.83 billion, with FY25 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance trimmed to a range of $6.18–6.24 billion.
. A stock trading around $9–10 per share with a market cap near $23–24 billion, on roughly $2.06 billion of trailing net income (about $0.79 diluted EPS), implying a trailing P/E near 12–13x and a forward P/E around 11.4x, while the Street’s average 12‑month price target is about $14.5 (roughly 45–50% upside from current levels).
III. HOW THE RISKS CREATE THE DISCOUNT
The market is not stupid; the reason this is cheap is that there are real risks, and they have been frontpage.
The biggest overhang is the arbitration and contract dispute history. During the 2021–2022 period when global LNG prices spiked, Venture Global delayed declaring “commercial operations” under certain long‑term contracts and sold more LNG cargoes into the spot market while some offtakers believed they were entitled to contracted volumes. Major customers responded with arbitration claims. BP won an award reported at over $1 billion. Shell pursued its own claims and lost at least one arbitration, then moved to challenge that loss in court. Other counterparties such as Edison, Galp, Repsol, and Orlen have been involved in disputes or claims. Pre‑settlement estimates in the press have put total potential exposure, if everything went against Venture Global, around $5 billion.
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Natural gas is setting up for one of the most structurally bullish decades we’ve seen, and Venture Global ( $VG) is one of the purest, most misunderstood ways to play it.
I’ll explain why natural gas is entering what may be its most attractive stretch in years, and why Venture Global, despite getting hammered since its IPO, might be one of the most asymmetric risk/reward names in the space. This is about supply‑demand math, geopolitics, and a demand shift the market hasn’t fully priced in.
I. THE MACRO CASE FOR NATURAL GAS
Natural gas is no longer just a “transition fuel.” It is becoming core to power, industry, and the AI build‑out.
LNG export demand is on the cusp of a major step‑change. North American LNG export capacity is on track to more than double by the end of the decade, rising from low teens Bcf/d in the mid‑2020s to the high‑20s Bcf/d range as projects under construction come online. The United States is already the world’s largest LNG exporter and, paired with Qatar, is positioned to supply a very large share of global seaborne gas. Long‑range demand outlooks from the majors now see global LNG demand climbing to the mid‑600s to low‑700s million tonnes per year by 2040, roughly a 60% increase from current levels, and those forecasts have been revised up, not down, over the last few years.
A new demand leg that almost nobody had properly modeled even three years ago is AI and data centers. Large technology and cloud companies are building an effectively parallel power system for AI workloads: off‑grid and behind‑the‑meter data centers, dedicated gas‑fired plants, and long‑term power arrangements designed specifically to serve GPU clusters. Dozens of these projects are in development, representing on the order of tens of gigawatts of new load. A meaningful portion of that is planned around natural‑gas generation because it is dispatchable, scalable, and bankable at utility scale. Nuclear is slow to add incrementally, long‑duration storage is not ready at the scale needed, and intermittent renewables cannot, on their own, support 24/7 AI inference with the required reliability. When someone today needs a gigawatt of firm power for an AI campus, the realistic solution is gas.
Europe adds another structural layer. The EU has moved from talking about “reducing dependence” on Russian gas to effectively committing to phasing out Russian pipeline gas and LNG imports over the next few years. As that has played out, the US share of European LNG imports has risen into the majority of their imported volumes, and in some recent months has reached around three‑fifths of total EU LNG intake.
European storage is regulated; it has to be refilled to high levels before every winter. This means Europe has locked itself into being a recurring, large‑scale LNG buyer for the foreseeable future, with US Gulf Coast facilities playing a central role.
Asia is the long duration demand engine in the background. Gas demand in Asia is expected to grow at a 5%ish annual rate through 2030. India, China, and Southeast Asia all tilt the same way: more gas, more LNG. As spot prices normalize from the panic highs of 2022, price sensitive buyers in developing Asia become much more willing to sign long‑term LNG deals.
Official forecasts are starting to reflect a tightening balance. Forward projections have Henry Hub easing in 2026 and then stepping higher again in 2027, with natural gas demand growth outpacing supply growth in that year and LNG feedgas responsible for most of the incremental pull. In some baseline cases, demand is projected to grow by more than twice the rate of supply, which is exactly what a structurally tighter market looks like.
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These cases are fact specific. Venture Global has won some, lost some, and settled others. The company has publicly maintained that its actions complied with contract language and has argued that its cash generation and liquidity are sufficient to absorb adverse awards over time. The market, however, has largely priced this as if it’s existential: “they burned customers; nobody will trust them; future contracting is impaired.” The key analytical question is whether the actual financial damage and reputational scar are as severe as the current valuation implies, or whether they are painful but manageable events for a company generating and growing multi billion dollar EBITDA with long lived strategic assets.
Leverage is the second major concern. Venture Global carries a levered balance sheet, with debt to equity notably higher than many conventional corporates. But this is project financed infrastructure. LNG export terminals are multi‑billion‑dollar, long‑lived hard assets. Their debt is tied to specific projects and supported by 20‑year sale and purchase agreements with investment‑grade offtakers. Interest coverage has, at points, looked tight, but as more trains at Plaquemines ramp and CP2 comes online, EBITDA should grow into the capital structure. The risk here is not that leverage exists it’s whether execution slips or cash flows underperform to the point where refinancing and covenants become problematic. That is a real risk, but it is not the same as a meme stock capital structure with no underlying cash flow.
The third risk is the LNG cycle itself. There is a known wave of new LNG projects globally scheduled for the mid‑to‑late 2020s. Some analysts argue that by 2026–2028, nameplate capacity could temporarily exceed demand, creating a period of oversupply and softer spot prices. That could force some higher‑cost projects to reduce utilization and would weigh on spot‑exposed revenues. For Venture Global, several mitigating factors matter. First, its business model is heavily based on long‑term take‑or‑pay liquefaction contracts where it earns a fixed fee per unit of capacity; the offtaker takes most of the commodity price risk. Second, slippage, cancellations, and cost blowouts are common in global LNG megaprojects; the theoretical capacity that shows up in spreadsheets rarely arrives on the original schedule. Third, demand forecasts have consistently been revised upward for both traditional sectors (power and industry) and new sectors like AI/data centers. And structurally, Europe and parts of Asia are locking in policy that actually supports gas demand for reliability and coal displacement.
IV. HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER
On the macro side, you have LNG export capacity in North America expected to more than double by 2029, a completely new structural demand leg from AI and data centers that could add several Bcf/d of US gas demand by 2030, a Europe that has legally committed to eliminating Russian gas and is already sourcing the bulk of its LNG from the US, and Asian gas demand compounding at around five percent annually through the end of the decade. Official forecasts show a brief period of easing prices followed by tightening as demand growth outpaces supply growth again, driven largely by LNG exports and power. On the company side, you have a pure‑play US Gulf Coast LNG platform.
If you are looking for a statistically cheap, high beta way to express a long natural gas and LNG thesis into the late 2020s and beyond, Venture Global sits squarely in that category. It is not a “sleep at night” utility; it is a levered, controversial, execution‑sensitive name. But that is also why the risk/reward can be so skewed if they execute on the projects already in motion and the global gas story continues on anything like its current trajectory.
Not financial advice. Do your own work.
English
Your “Paper BTC” thesis is mathematically impossible.
I’ll steelman you first: Yes, derivatives + thin float amplify volatility. Yes, liquidation cascades exist. Yes, institutions have short-term tactical advantages. I grant all of that.
But that’s not what you’re claiming. You’re claiming derivatives create “synthetic supply” making BTC “theoretically infinite” and enabling systematic price suppression. That violates basic market math.
Your “infinite supply” equation is wrong. You’re claiming: Effective Supply = Q(on-chain) + N(derivatives)
On-chain BTC is measured in BTC. Derivative notional is USD exposure. You cannot add them. This is like writing Distance = 5 miles + 20 dollars. The equation is meaningless before we even evaluate it.
“Six claims on one coin” ignores zero-sum netting. For every derivative contract: Sum(Long Positions) = Sum(Short Positions). Every long has a matching short. Net directional pressure from derivatives = zero by construction. If your “six claims” create selling pressure, where’s the equal buying pressure from the six counterparties? It’s there. It cancels.
No-arbitrage makes sustained suppression impossible.
At futures expiration:
F(T) = S(T)
If F > S: Buy spot, sell futures, risk-free profit.
If F < S: Buy futures, sell spot, risk-free profit.
Arbitrageurs close any gap instantly. For derivatives to “override” spot price, you need F ≠ S to persist, free money sitting on the table. But the same “ruthlessly efficient Wall Street pros” in your thesis would arbitrage it away immediately. Funding rates mathematically enforce convergence.
Funding Rate = κ × (P(perp) - P(spot)) / P(spot)
Perp > Spot: Longs pay shorts, selling pressure pushes perp down.
Perp < Spot: Shorts pay longs, buying pressure pushes perp up. You cannot sustain perps below spot. The funding cost bleeds you until you capitulate. This is a negative feedback loop by design.
Cash settlement never touches supply.
Cash-settled derivatives at expiry:
Payoff(long) = S(T) - K (in USD)
No Bitcoin changes hands. Spot price determines settlement, settlement doesn’t determine spot.
Your “Synthetic Float Ratio” is just leverage. High SFR affects volatility and liquidation risk. It does not change on-chain supply (still 21M), UTXO ownership (still verifiable), or long-run price determination (still spot supply/demand).
Leverage is not supply. Calling it “infinite supply” is a category error.
The first is microstructure. The second violates mathematical identities.
For your thesis to work, you must break dimensional consistency, zero-sum netting, no-arbitrage, and funding equilibrium simultaneously. All four are mathematical constraints, not opinions.
Your thesis isn’t controversial. It’s impossible.
English
So here’s the issue you get influencers like this guy have a quarter million followers and they claim they don’t know why it is declining… it’s because they don’t understand basic mechanics of price discovery.
They don’t understand that the marginal buyers or the float determines price they think the onchain bitcoin is that is the price discovery
Well, it was once upon a time but now..
Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
This is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin.
This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated.
The original premise that no longer exists
Bitcoin’s entire valuation logic was built on finite supply (21M) and inability to be rehypothecated.
That died the moment:
•Cash-settled futures
•Perpetual swaps
•Options
•ETFs
•Prime broker lending
•Wrapped BTC
•Total return swaps
were layered on top of the chain.
From that moment forward:
Bitcoin supply became theoretically infinite.
Not on-chain in price discovery.
The metric that explains the collapse
Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR)
Once you can synthetically manufacture the supply, the asset is no longer scarce — and once scarcity is gone, price becomes a derivatives game, not a supply-and-demand market.
That is exactly what has happened to Bitcoin.
This is the same structural break that occurred in gold, silver, oil, and eventually equities once they became derivatives-dominated.
Why Wall Street can now “trade against” Bitcoin
They do exactly what they’ve done in every commodity market:
1.Create unlimited paper BTC
2.Short into rallies
3.Force liquidations
4.Cover lower
5.Repeat
They are not “betting” — they are manufacturing inventory.
The same 1 BTC can now support:
•An ETF unit
•A futures contract
•A perpetual swap
•An options delta
•A broker loan
•A structured note
All at once.
That is six claims on one coin.
That is not a market.
That is a fractional reserve price system.
The ₿itcoin Therapist@TheBTCTherapist
Bitcoin actually tagged $73,000 today, which is borderline insane. What’s remarkable is no one actually knows what’s happening and why price is going down. It’s all predicated on some BS glitch narrative from 3 months ago and the 4 year cycle which means absolutely nothing.
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Since my October 19 post, the thesis hasn’t changed, but the evidence has improved: NextNav has gone from “great tech on paper” to live 5G PNT deployments in the U.S. and a deeper commercial push in Japan, and the stock has started to re‑rate. The market is still debating the usual “great technology, weak financials” critique, but recent developments make that view less convincing.
Price since October 19:
When I first laid out the thesis, NN was trading at $12ish. Since then it has moved to $17 (30%+ gain), so some of the earlier discount has closed while the main regulatory and commercialization questions are still ahead. This isn’t a full rerating, it’s the market beginning to acknowledge progress.
Santa Clara, CA:
A common criticism is that NextNav has impressive technology but may not turn it into a profitable business before financial pressure builds. I agree the revenue base is small and losses are real, but the Santa Clara launch directly narrows that gap. NextNav is now running a 5G PNT network in Santa Clara County using multiple fixed base stations, a standalone 5G core, and its 3D architecture as a terrestrial backup to GPS under real‑world conditions. That turns a lab story into an operating system that regulators, infrastructure operators, and potential customers can actually test and evaluate.
For my thesis, this is the key shift: from “here’s what the system should do” to “here’s what it is doing today.” It makes near term commercial discussions, pilot work, and policy engagement more credible because they are grounded in live performance rather than simulations.
MetCom:
The expanded partnership with Tokyo‑based MetCom is the second major step forward. MetCom is using NextNav’s 5G‑based 3D PNT waveform and receiver technology to provide terrestrial PNT and timing services in large Japanese metro areas, with radio licenses moving through Japan’s regulators. This is the first international 5G‑PNT deployment on this stack and shows that a sophisticated market is willing to build around the platform.For me, this matters because it shows three things:
1. The architecture is exportable beyond the U.S. regulatory environment.
2. A real partner is putting capital and spectrum to work on NextNav’s IP.
3. It strengthens the national‑security and resilience argument in the U.S.: if Japan is moving toward terrestrial backup, the case for similar steps here only grows stronger.
Where my thesis stands now:
The setup is still the same. Regulatory outcomes, execution, and financial runway are the core risks; spectrum and PNT IP provide the upside. What’s changed since October 19 is the quality of the evidence:
#1 The stock has moved from $12 to $17+, reflecting some recognition of progress.
#2 There is a live 5G PNT network running in Santa Clara.
#3 There is an expanded 5G‑based PNT deployment in Japan with MetCom, validating both the technology and the business model outside the U.S.
That combination makes me more confident in the original risk/reward, not less.
Tit For Tat@GameTheoryPP
(1/2) NEXTNAV DEEP DIVE THREAD #NN Trading at $12.50 with a $20+ target, #NextNav is sitting on a potential 2x to 3x that a lot of people aren’t realizing. Here is why this GPS backup innovation could be one of the best bets in tech right now. THE PROBLEM: GPS is critically vulnerable GPS signals are 100,000x weaker than terrestrial alternatives. The system fails indoors and in urban areas. Russia’s GPS jamming in Ukraine proved the threat is real. A GPS outage costs the U.S. economy $1 billion per day. China has openly discussed capabilities to destroy GPS satellites. THE OPPORTUNITY: Massive addressable market The Assured PNT Market is projected to grow from $665 million in 2024 to $7.9 billion by 2034, representing a 28% CAGR. The 5G indoor positioning market will reach $12.3 billion by 2030. U.S. government spending on GPS alternatives is accelerating. Executive Order 13905 mandates GPS backup infrastructure. This is a national security imperative with bipartisan support. NEXTNAV’S SOLUTION: Best in class technology validated by the government The U.S. Department of Transportation tested 11 competing PNT technologies across all operational scenarios. NextNav ranked number one in every category including indoor positioning, 3D location with floor level accuracy, timing accuracy under 50 nanoseconds, anti jamming and anti spoofing capabilities, and urban canyon performance. THE TECHNOLOGY MOAT: Why NextNav is way ahead of competitors NextNav holds 155 plus U.S. patents covering positioning systems, timing technology, altitude estimation, and 5G integration. Their signals are 100,000x stronger than GPS. All signals are encrypted making them resistant to jamming and spoofing. The system works indoors where GPS completely fails. They provide 3D positioning with floor level vertical accuracy. No competitor has this combination of advantages. THE 5G BREAKTHROUGH: Game changing commercialization path In October 2025, NextNav demonstrated their commercial 5G PRS technology using standard 5G equipment from #Lekha Wireless. The system delivers positioning, timing, and 5G data transmission simultaneously. No specialized receivers are needed because it works with standard consumer devices. By leveraging existing 5G infrastructure, deployment can happen rapidly without building costly ground up networks. THE CROWN JEWEL: Irreplaceable spectrum assets NextNav owns 3.5 billion MHz POPs in the Lower 900 MHz band. They are the nation’s largest license holder for positioning services. Low band spectrum provides superior building penetration compared to higher frequencies. Licensed spectrum means interference protection and guaranteed quality of service. Using the industry benchmark of $1 per MHz POP, the spectrum asset value alone is $3.5 billion compared to NextNav’s $1.68 billion market cap. THE CATALYST: FCC regulatory approval timeline NextNav filed a petition for Lower 900 MHz band reconfiguration to enable 15 MHz for their terrestrial GPS backup network, 5 MHz for 5G broadband uplink, and 10 MHz for 5G broadband downlink. In August 2024, the FCC issued a Public Notice. In March 2025, the FCC issued a Notice of Inquiry on PNT technologies. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is expected in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. The final FCC Order is anticipated in 2026. COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: NextNav versus alternatives Compared to satellite solutions like Iridium and Satelles, NextNav provides signals that are 100x stronger, delivers full 3D indoor positioning that satellites cannot achieve, offers floor level vertical accuracy, and leverages 5G networks without needing satellites. Compared to broadcast #PNT and #eLoran, NextNav is the only solution with licensed spectrum, the only solution with 3D positioning capability, the only solution ranked number one by the Department of Transportation, and the only solution integrating with the 5G ecosystem.
English
$TTI $Magrathea JV announced: TETRA Technologies signs a JV term sheet with Magrathea Metals to develop magnesium production at the Evergreen brine project in Arkansas. Magrathea will bring electrolytic magnesium tech that already secured a roughly $28M Defense Production Act Title III grant from the U.S. Department of Defense.
This is a positive for $Tetra because it helps turn its Arkansas brine resource into a multi-revenue project (bromine, lithium, and now magnesium), instead of just a single product bromine plant.
rttnews.com/3600160/tetra-…
Tit For Tat@GameTheoryPP
Update on Tetra Technologies Since October 1, 2025 Stock Performance Since the start of October, Tetra Technologies $TTI has climbed from $5.85 on October 1 to $7.32 as of October 20, marking a 25.1% increase in less than three weeks. Trading volume spiked to over 12 million shares on October 14 compared to the average of 2 million. Upcoming Earnings #Tetra will release Q3 2025 earnings after the market close on October 28, followed by a conference call on October 29 at 10:30 AM ET. Analysts expect the company to post $0.04 in earnings per share and $144.4 million in revenue, a 33% year-over-year increase in EPS. That $0.04 might not sound impressive on its own, but the growth rate is what matters. This represents consistent improvement from $0.03 in Q3 2024, marking five straight quarters of profitability. Many comparable industrial and materials service firms operate on slim margins, so a 33% earnings rise signals solid operational execution and leverage on expanding projects. Tetra has grown per-share earnings roughly 39% annually over the past five years, well above the sector average of around 5%. This continued expansion, despite heavy investment in bromine and desalination technologies, shows they have a scalable business cost structure and rising cash efficiency. Recent Management Changes On October 1, Tetra appointed Katherine Kokenes as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, assuming the role of principal accounting officer from CFO Elijio Serrano. Kokenes, who previously served as CAO at Independence Contract Drilling, brings over twenty-five years of accounting experience across the energy sector, including senior roles at Nabors Industries. Her role comes with 29,645 restricted stock units granted as part of a long-term incentive plan.
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Update on Tetra Technologies Since October 1, 2025
Stock Performance
Since the start of October, Tetra Technologies $TTI has climbed from $5.85 on October 1 to $7.32 as of October 20, marking a 25.1% increase in less than three weeks. Trading volume spiked to over 12 million shares on October 14 compared to the average of 2 million.
Upcoming Earnings
#Tetra will release Q3 2025 earnings after the market close on October 28, followed by a conference call on October 29 at 10:30 AM ET. Analysts expect the company to post $0.04 in earnings per share and $144.4 million in revenue, a 33% year-over-year increase in EPS.
That $0.04 might not sound impressive on its own, but the growth rate is what matters. This represents consistent improvement from $0.03 in Q3 2024, marking five straight quarters of profitability. Many comparable industrial and materials service firms operate on slim margins, so a 33% earnings rise signals solid operational execution and leverage on expanding projects. Tetra has grown per-share earnings roughly 39% annually over the past five years, well above the sector average of around 5%. This continued expansion, despite heavy investment in bromine and desalination technologies, shows they have a scalable business cost structure and rising cash efficiency.
Recent Management Changes
On October 1, Tetra appointed Katherine Kokenes as Vice President and Chief Accounting Officer, assuming the role of principal accounting officer from CFO Elijio Serrano. Kokenes, who previously served as CAO at Independence Contract Drilling, brings over twenty-five years of accounting experience across the energy sector, including senior roles at Nabors Industries. Her role comes with 29,645 restricted stock units granted as part of a long-term incentive plan.
Tit For Tat@GameTheoryPP
Deep dive on Tetra Technologies (Smackover Region) $TTI owns mineral rights to 40,000 acres of proven brine lands in the Smackover region of Arkansas. This ground is loaded with bromine, lithium, magnesium, and manganese, all labeled critical minerals now in the US and essential for batteries, EVs, solar, desalination, and more. Land ownership Their land splits between Evergreen Brine Unit (about 7,000 acres, Tetra 65% owned plus Saltwerx/Exxon 35%) and Reynolds Brine Unit (20,854 acres fully leased) with a 2.5% royalty locked in on every bit of lithium Standard Lithium pulls up. There’s even a minimum payment locked in if production is low. That means a steady stream of income, permanently, just for owning the land. Then there’s another 11,000 acres of mineral rights still to be tapped down the line. Different from a Traditional Mining company Here’s the big difference from regular mining companies that burn cash on overhead: Tetra’s using brine extraction instead of traditional hard rock mining. Brine extraction costs about 40% less than hard rock mining methods and uses 70% less water. No massive open pits, no blasting mountains, no armies of heavy equipment running 24/7. They drill wells and pump brine up like oil wells, then process it on site. Way cleaner and way cheaper to operate. Financials Financially they’re in great shape for a resource company. As of Q2 2025 they had $68 million cash on hand with $181 million in long term debt and net leverage at just 1.2x. That debt to equity ratio of 0.62x sits right in the sweet spot for industry standards (0.5-1.5 is considered healthy) and they’ve massively cleaned up their balance sheet over the past five years, dropping debt to equity from over 700% down to just 62%. They generate $37 million in free cash flow quarterly and cover their interest payments 3.2x over. Recent + Future Growth Over the past year they posted a 163% jump in lithium resources and a 173% boost in bromine (both verified in DFS), plus major increases in magnesium and manganese. The Arkansas bromine processing facility is a big one, $44 million invested so far, plant due online by end of 2027 and expected to add $200–$250 million in annual sales when it ramps. Pipeline keeps expanding. Tetra just launched TDS Oasis, a water desalination tech, teaming with EOG and others. They’re the main supplier of electrolytes for EOSE’s zinc flow batteries, which means if battery companies like $EOSE blow up so does Tetra. But if one battery tech flops and another wins, Tetra still wins because minerals go to everybody in the space. How this ties in with the rest of the business Tetra runs nationwide fluids management, water treatment, and environmental services for the energy sector, skills and technology that directly support the Smackover play. Their experience handling brine, high-purity fluids, and advanced water systems is the same backbone powering the Arkansas project. The cash flow and technical edge from this national business is funding the Smackover expansion and lets them quickly deploy new processes for extracting and refining these critical minerals. All those service contracts across the U.S. flow right back into developing and scaling one of the richest brine resources in the country.
English
(2/2) THE FINANCIALS: Strong balance sheet with runway
As of Q2 2025, NextNav has $176 million in cash and short term investments. Monthly cash burn is approximately $3.2 million. This provides a runway of more than 25 months as it stands now. Total debt is $71.4 million which is manageable. Revenue in 2024 was $5.67 million, up 47 percent year over year. First half 2025 revenue was $2.74 million, up 25 percent year over year. Their Pinnacle service is operational with Verizon. They have sufficient cash to reach all major catalysts.
INSTITUTIONAL CONVICTION: Smart money is accumulating
Institutional ownership stands at 79 percent. Major holders include Fortress Investment Group with 11 percent, BlackRock, Vanguard, and Fleming James B Jr with 10 percent. Recent institutional buying includes Fleming adding 5.18 million dollars, Susquehanna adding 4.35 million dollars, and Vanguard adding 2.36 million dollars. This level of institutional support is significant for a pre revenue growth story.
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN IMPACT: Market misunderstanding creates opportunity
The stock declined 7.4 percent from 13.50 to 12.50 since the October first government shutdown began. Here is what most investors are missing. #FCC commissioners and key rulemaking staff are designated as essential personnel so the FCC regulatory review process continues during shutdowns. Historical precedent shows the FCC issues major orders during shutdowns. The market is incorrectly pricing in shutdown risk that does not exist. Uninformed investors see government shutdown headlines and assume all regulatory activity stops. This misunderstanding creates a perfect buying opportunity. The fundamental thesis is unchanged and the regulatory timeline remains on track.
VALUATION: Massive disconnect from fair value
Current price is 12.50 dollars. Analyst consensus target is 20.00 dollars representing 60 percent upside. Using sum of the parts valuation, the Pinnacle E911 service is worth 200 to 300 million dollars. TerraPoiNT plus spectrum assets are worth 2.0 to 3.0 billion dollars. The patent portfolio is worth 500 million to 1.0 billion dollars. Total fair value is 2.7 to 4.3 billion dollars compared to the current 1.68 billion dollar market cap. The stock is trading at a 50 to 60 percent discount to fair value.
WHY NOW: The setup is perfect
The stock is trading 7 percent below pre shutdown levels creating temporary weakness. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is expected within six months. The recent October 2025 5G PRS breakthrough proves commercial viability. Institutional investors are actively accumulating shares. The stock trades at a fifty percent discount to spectrum asset value. The 2025 to 2026 timeline is catalyst rich with multiple value inflection points. The market is underpricing FCC approval probability.
THE BOTTOM LINE
NextNav is a binary play with downside protection at nine to ten dollars based on cash Pinnacle business value and patent portfolio. Base case upside is twenty to twenty five dollars representing 60 to 100 percent appreciation. Bull case upside is thirty five to fifty dollars representing 180 to 300 percent appreciation. The risk reward ratio is three to one to four to one. The GPS vulnerability is a permanent national security problem. NextNav's solution is technologically proven and ready for deployment. The FCC regulatory decision will be the catalyst that unlocks substantial shareholder value. This represents a strong buy for investors with a twelve to twenty four month time horizon who can appropriately size a position accounting for binary regulatory risk.
This is not financial advice. Do your own research. Position sizing is critical with binary event investments. But NextNav at current levels deserves serious consideration from anyone looking for asymmetric risk reward opportunities in the tech sector.
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(1/2) NEXTNAV DEEP DIVE THREAD #NN
Trading at $12.50 with a $20+ target, #NextNav is sitting on a potential 2x to 3x that a lot of people aren’t realizing. Here is why this GPS backup innovation could be one of the best bets in tech right now.
THE PROBLEM: GPS is critically vulnerable
GPS signals are 100,000x weaker than terrestrial alternatives. The system fails indoors and in urban areas. Russia’s GPS jamming in Ukraine proved the threat is real. A GPS outage costs the U.S. economy $1 billion per day. China has openly discussed capabilities to destroy GPS satellites.
THE OPPORTUNITY: Massive addressable market
The Assured PNT Market is projected to grow from $665 million in 2024 to $7.9 billion by 2034, representing a 28% CAGR. The 5G indoor positioning market will reach $12.3 billion by 2030. U.S. government spending on GPS alternatives is accelerating. Executive Order 13905 mandates GPS backup infrastructure. This is a national security imperative with bipartisan support.
NEXTNAV’S SOLUTION: Best in class technology validated by the government
The U.S. Department of Transportation tested 11 competing PNT technologies across all operational scenarios. NextNav ranked number one in every category including indoor positioning, 3D location with floor level accuracy, timing accuracy under 50 nanoseconds, anti jamming and anti spoofing capabilities, and urban canyon performance.
THE TECHNOLOGY MOAT: Why NextNav is way ahead of competitors
NextNav holds 155 plus U.S. patents covering positioning systems, timing technology, altitude estimation, and 5G integration. Their signals are 100,000x stronger than GPS. All signals are encrypted making them resistant to jamming and spoofing. The system works indoors where GPS completely fails. They provide 3D positioning with floor level vertical accuracy. No competitor has this combination of advantages.
THE 5G BREAKTHROUGH: Game changing commercialization path
In October 2025, NextNav demonstrated their commercial 5G PRS technology using standard 5G equipment from #Lekha Wireless. The system delivers positioning, timing, and 5G data transmission simultaneously. No specialized receivers are needed because it works with standard consumer devices. By leveraging existing 5G infrastructure, deployment can happen rapidly without building costly ground up networks.
THE CROWN JEWEL: Irreplaceable spectrum assets
NextNav owns 3.5 billion MHz POPs in the Lower 900 MHz band. They are the nation’s largest license holder for positioning services. Low band spectrum provides superior building penetration compared to higher frequencies. Licensed spectrum means interference protection and guaranteed quality of service. Using the industry benchmark of $1 per MHz POP, the spectrum asset value alone is $3.5 billion compared to NextNav’s $1.68 billion market cap.
THE CATALYST: FCC regulatory approval timeline
NextNav filed a petition for Lower 900 MHz band reconfiguration to enable 15 MHz for their terrestrial GPS backup network, 5 MHz for 5G broadband uplink, and 10 MHz for 5G broadband downlink. In August 2024, the FCC issued a Public Notice. In March 2025, the FCC issued a Notice of Inquiry on PNT technologies. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking is expected in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026. The final FCC Order is anticipated in 2026.
COMPETITIVE ANALYSIS: NextNav versus alternatives
Compared to satellite solutions like Iridium and Satelles, NextNav provides signals that are 100x stronger, delivers full 3D indoor positioning that satellites cannot achieve, offers floor level vertical accuracy, and leverages 5G networks without needing satellites. Compared to broadcast #PNT and #eLoran, NextNav is the only solution with licensed spectrum, the only solution with 3D positioning capability, the only solution ranked number one by the Department of Transportation, and the only solution integrating with the 5G ecosystem.
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