Grain of Salt

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Grain of Salt

Grain of Salt

@GrainofSaltSF

It’s easier to challenge an idea than to change a belief. GoS, 2026

San Francisco, CA 가입일 Ağustos 2012
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Updated @Strategy Cash Reserve History. Highest Nominal amount at $2.55B, shows ability to replenish, access to capital markets and durability. 12 Month minimum dividend reserve, governance. I'm Bullish. Thanks @saylor @phongle and team.
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Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF

Here's the Cash Reserver History for @Strategy. I am guessing that the data on Strategy website will include this info going forward(in .CSV and table form), I had to pull from the 8Ks to build my chart and table. They will probably also show affect on BPS, BTC Yield, for QTD and YTD and report it more prominently in quarterly review presentation. @Saylor

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hodl-shark
hodl-shark@hodl_shark·
Strategy used sale to fund preferred dividends while they already had 17 months of dividend coverage from cash raised last week selling common. They bought high and sold low… took cash loss from sale while also hurting common shareholder value. If you’re a rationale investor this makes no sense. I don’t care about inoculating the market or any of the theatrics. Poor execution is poor execution. Thoughts Grain?
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
I ran three separate polls on @Strategy announcement for tomorrow. 1. How much Bitcoin did Strategy acquire this past week? Zero: 37.0% 1–1000 BTC: 35.2% 1000+ BTC: 14.1% Cash only: 13.7% Votes: 724 The market is split. Only 37% expected zero purchases, meaning 63% expected some form of BTC acquisition. Most participants still assume Strategy’s default behavior is accumulation. 2. How much cash did Strategy acquire this past week? Zero: 19.3% $0–500M: 36.6% $500M–$1B: 26.8% $1B+: 17.3% Votes: 590 This was the strongest consensus of the three polls. 81% expected Strategy to raise cash, and nearly half expected more than $500M. Investors increasingly understand that capital formation is now a core part of the Strategy model. 3. How much Bitcoin did Strategy sell this past week? Zero: 75.7% 1–500 BTC: 13.4% 501–1000 BTC: 5.3% 1001+ BTC: 5.6% Votes: 916 This was the clearest result. Three out of four respondents believe Strategy sold no Bitcoin. The market has largely internalized that BTC sales are not the primary funding mechanism. Overall Conclusion The combined result is interesting: 76% expect no BTC sales 81% expect cash to be raised 63% expect BTC to be acquired In other words, the crowd’s base case is: Raise capital → acquire Bitcoin → don’t sell Bitcoin. The other interesting observation is participation: Tomorrow we’ll find out what actually happened.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Strategy probably sold much higher cost Bitcoin since Bitcoin Average cost fell from $75,578 → $75,476 The 8-K did not disclose the purchase price of the Bitcoin sold. I would expect this slide to be updated in the Q2 2026 presentation.
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Bitcoin News@BitcoinNewsCom

STRATEGY BITCOIN SALE REALIZES A $55 MILLION LOSS Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 3,588 BTC between June 29 and July 5 at an average price of $60,197. Based on the company’s average acquisition cost of roughly $75,500 per BTC, the sale locked in an estimated $55 million realized loss. The transactions reduced Strategy’s holdings from 847,363 BTC to 843,775 BTC. Despite selling at a loss, Strategy’s average cost basis fell slightly from about $75,578 to $75,476 per BTC, reflecting the removal of higher-cost coins from its treasury.

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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@zTimSavage @Truenorthclips I’m not saying that ASC 740 exists. It’s clear that at some point Strategy wants the option to sell low cost Bitcoin to and have a previous high cost sale so they cancel out. Why would this slide exist? Why would the previous transactions exist.
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Tim Savage
Tim Savage@zTimSavage·
I am a CPA, and before I started my hedge fund, I was a Tax Partner at a national accounting firm. Was also one of the highest performing Seniors at EY during my years there. Financial reporting, tax compliance, and ASC 740 were my specialties. I assure you, my initial response above is everything that matters.
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True North Clips
True North Clips@Truenorthclips·
Most people saw $MSTR sell $1 billion of $BTC and panicked. They missed the entire point. Sell the high-cost $BTC. Book the tax loss. Then buy back $1.25 billion a week later. You just harvested a massive tax asset and ended up with more $BTC. This isn't distress. It's financial engineering at the highest level. @GrainofSaltSF
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
The only 4-layer analysis of @Strategy. Most people discuss one metric, some discuss two. Four metrics interacting simultaneously: 1. Ownership (BTC per share) 2. Amplification (BTC acquired, not increased ADSO) 3. Net Debt Leverage (Debt – Cash relative to BTC NAV) 4. Valuation (Equity mNAV & EV mNAV) This graphic required: * Strategy dashboards * 7 .csv files (cash not available in .csv). * Historical purchases * Convert schedules (debt) * Preferred capital data per QTR. * Cash reserve reconstruction from 8-Ks The result, a company can simultaneously: + Improve ownership + Increase amplification + Reduce leverage - Trade at a lower valuation Most analysis fixate on one metric. Reality doesn’t. I'm bullish for the new Strategy in a bull market. @Saylor @phongle @CJ_Bitcoin @rohanhirani_ @ColeMacro @PunterJeff @LizardWizardBTC @AdamBLiv @thepowerfulHRV @hillery_dan @Trollstein
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@Mi_halb @Truenorthclips Companies can hold the tax loss for 5 years. Individuals have to tax loss in the same year. Apparently you don’t think Bitcoin will go up.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@zTimSavage @Truenorthclips Strategy has already disclosed Bitcoin-related deferred tax assets and valuation allowance treatment. Your point on valuation/realizability under ASC 740, may exist, however Bitcoin-related tax attributes can exist based on previous transactions.
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Tim Savage
Tim Savage@zTimSavage·
@GrainofSaltSF @Truenorthclips x.com/ztimsavage/sta…
Tim Savage@zTimSavage

Wash sales won't do anything for them, and would be net detrimental. There is an accounting standard called ASC 740 that dictates how they should value capital losses which would be generated from a wash sale. The capital losses carry forward for only 5 years and can only be offset by capital gains. So unless Saylor sold for gains within the 5 year period, they expire worthless. Additionally, when forecasting of future income/gains becomes uncertain, they would have to establish a valuation reserve against the capital losses (called a deferred tax asset under ASC 740), requiring them to report the loss benefit as 0 anyways. This is how they currently report the losses in their financials. In short, no benefit and only detriment in their case.

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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Which part? Dec 22, 2022 -> Strategy sold 704 BTC at an average price of $16,776/BTC for tax-loss harvesting. Dec 24, 2022 -> Strategy purchased 810 BTC two days later, resulting in a net gain of 106 BTC. May 26–31, 2026 ->Strategy sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135/BTC. June 1–7, 2026 -> Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC, resulting in a net gain of 1,518 BTC relative to the prior week’s sale.
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Tim Savage
Tim Savage@zTimSavage·
@Truenorthclips Lol no. This is categorically incorrect. These people have no understanding of corporate taxation or financial reporting.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Dec 22, 2022 -> Strategy sold 704 BTC at an average price of $16,776/BTC for tax-loss harvesting. Dec 24, 2022 -> Strategy purchased 810 BTC two days later, resulting in a net gain of 106 BTC. May 26–31, 2026 ->Strategy sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135/BTC. June 1–7, 2026 -> Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC, resulting in a net gain of 1,518 BTC relative to the prior week’s sale.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Dec 22, 2022 -> Strategy sold 704 BTC at an average price of $16,776/BTC for tax-loss harvesting. Dec 24, 2022 -> Strategy purchased 810 BTC two days later, resulting in a net gain of 106 BTC. May 26–31, 2026 ->Strategy sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135/BTC. June 1–7, 2026 -> Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC, resulting in a net gain of 1,518 BTC relative to the prior week’s sale.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Dec 22, 2022 -> Strategy sold 704 BTC at an average price of $16,776/BTC for tax-loss harvesting. Dec 24, 2022 -> Strategy purchased 810 BTC two days later, resulting in a net gain of 106 BTC. May 26–31, 2026 ->Strategy sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135/BTC. June 1–7, 2026 -> Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC, resulting in a net gain of 1,518 BTC relative to the prior week’s sale.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
Maybe you should do some research before calling people names. Dec 22, 2022 -> Strategy sold 704 BTC at an average price of $16,776/BTC for tax-loss harvesting. Dec 24, 2022 -> Strategy purchased 810 BTC two days later, resulting in a net gain of 106 BTC. May 26–31, 2026 ->Strategy sold 32 BTC at an average price of $77,135/BTC. June 1–7, 2026 -> Strategy purchased 1,550 BTC, resulting in a net gain of 1,518 BTC relative to the prior week’s sale.
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ok5ok
ok5ok@ok5ok55·
@Truenorthclips Stupid shit hole. $mstr is authorized to sell $btc. But it is likely has not sold any yet. Right now, sell $mstr ATM better
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Michael H
Michael H@Mi_halb·
@Truenorthclips What’s the point realising a tax loss when you have no gains to offset against?
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@jonwillbanks I'm thinking about making a simple .pdf file of the infographics. I'll keep everyone updated.
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Jon Willbanks (e/acc)
Jon Willbanks (e/acc)@jonwillbanks·
Nice! Though I’ve always appreciated the depth of your articles too. BTCTC mechanics are fascinating and I suspect will become a hot topics in the years ahead, with many newcomers sprinting to catch up. If you ever compile these infographics with your articles and self-publish to Amazon, I would definitely buy a copy.
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Jon Willbanks (e/acc)
Jon Willbanks (e/acc)@jonwillbanks·
Gratitude and respect for thought leaders like @GrainofSaltSF who give so much of their energy to patiently teach others. I learn something new from him every week. Thanks, Grain! Today’s share: this awesome reference guide for understanding $MSTR. 👇
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF

The only 4-layer analysis of @Strategy. Most people discuss one metric, some discuss two. Four metrics interacting simultaneously: 1. Ownership (BTC per share) 2. Amplification (BTC acquired, not increased ADSO) 3. Net Debt Leverage (Debt – Cash relative to BTC NAV) 4. Valuation (Equity mNAV & EV mNAV) This graphic required: * Strategy dashboards * 7 .csv files (cash not available in .csv). * Historical purchases * Convert schedules (debt) * Preferred capital data per QTR. * Cash reserve reconstruction from 8-Ks The result, a company can simultaneously: + Improve ownership + Increase amplification + Reduce leverage - Trade at a lower valuation Most analysis fixate on one metric. Reality doesn’t. I'm bullish for the new Strategy in a bull market. @Saylor @phongle @CJ_Bitcoin @rohanhirani_ @ColeMacro @PunterJeff @LizardWizardBTC @AdamBLiv @thepowerfulHRV @hillery_dan @Trollstein

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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@Quantum3966 @Strategy The only capital formation open to Strategy is to sell MSTR. They can not sell STRC or the other Prefs and selling Bitcoin makes no sense with $2.55B in cash. If the Bitcoin price is above $64K then the market will react positively.
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Grain of Salt
Grain of Salt@GrainofSaltSF·
@Quantum3966 @Strategy Cash raise of <$500M No Bitcoin sales Bitcoin purchase of 1000+. I would assume that Strategy wants to start Q3 with some Bitcoin purchase to increase Bitcoin Per Share (Known as Bitcoin Yield), but a large cash raise would make that difficult. So it will be interesting.
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Quantum333
Quantum333@Quantum3966·
@GrainofSaltSF @Strategy How did you or would you voted? Give us your predictions for tomorrow of what you think they should do and what you think they did, If anything at all.
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탐색

@hodl_shark @Strategy @Quantum3966 @zTimSavage @Truenorthclips @bamthemexican @Saylor @phongle