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Cole Grinde
133.9K posts

Cole Grinde
@GrindeOptions
PNW Based 🌲- Investing To Earn My Time Back- Options, Stocks, Dividends, Value- Financial Nerd- Fundamentals - Brick by Brick 🧱 - $TSLA investor. ⚡️
Seattle, WA 가입일 Nisan 2012
2.4K 팔로잉43.5K 팔로워
Cole Grinde 리트윗함

🚨 Tesla Semi is winning over truckers
Early drivers say the Semi’s center seat, full visibility screens, smoother drive, and lower stress make a big difference.
With 500-mile range, faster charging, and lower cost vs other electric trucks, Tesla plans to scale production from Nevada, targeting up to 50,000 units/year. $TSLA

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@Smartnetworth1 People still think it’s the most difficult thing ever
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@AndresEdFragoso When the war is over and the Fed cuts rates.
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@GrindeOptions may have to sub soon,just so I know where to nav first
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@theDigitalCCH With $100,000 I’d sell CSPs on 3-5 of my favorite stocks.
I’d sell weekly or biweekly contracts.
A little OTM would be a good strategy.
1% per week is $1,000/week.
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@GrindeOptions sure, suppose someone was out of work, and could rally $100K angel investors (dads inheritance) how could one generate at leat $1000/wk without draining capital too bad?
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@two_chump I think 50,000/yr Tesla semi trucks in the U.S. and 50,000/yr internationally would be a very big deal.
I think energy and Robotaxi is more important.
Optimus will be the biggest driver of growth long term for $TSLA.
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What would a 50 percent market penetration in the U.S. domestic Semi-Truck market do to the TSLA share price at current P/E and P/S multiples?
A 50% market penetration in the U.S. semi-truck (Class 8) market would imply roughly +$30.45 billion in additional annual Tesla revenue (based on ~105,000 units/year at the dominant ~$290k long-range Semi price, as previously calculated).
As of March 20, 2026 (post-2025 results):
- TSLA share price: ~$380
- Market cap: ~$1.43 trillion
- 2025 TTM revenue: $94.83 billion → current P/S multiple ≈ 15.1x
- 2025 TTM net income: $3.79 billion (EPS ~$1.01) → current trailing P/E ≈ 377x (highly elevated/distorted due to 2025's low profitability)
### At the current P/S multiple (15.1x):
- New total revenue: $125.28 billion
- Implied new market cap: ~$1.89 trillion (+32%)
- Implied share price: ~$502 (+32% from $380)
This is a clean, revenue-based uplift assuming the market applies today's valuation multiple to the expanded top line.
### At the current trailing P/E multiple (377x):
This requires an assumption on Semi profitability (current overall net margin is only ~4%):
- Conservative case (same ~4% net margin on the added Semi revenue): New net income ~$5.01 billion → Implied share price also ~$502 (mathematically aligns with P/S).
- Realistic/high-margin case (15% net margin on the incremental Semi revenue — plausible for scaled EVs with low maintenance/energy costs): New net income ~$8.36 billion → New market cap $3.15 trillion (+120%) → Implied share price: ~$838 (+121%).
Bottom line: At today's multiples, 50% penetration alone would drive TSLA to **$500/share on a P/S basis** (the most straightforward metric) or $500–$840+ depending on realized Semi margins — a 32–121%+ gain. The FSD/robotruck angle you highlighted makes the high-margin scenario far more likely long-term, though this is a steady-state hypothetical (ramp starts slowly in 2026–2027). Actual share price impact would also depend on execution, competition, and how quickly the market prices in the growth.
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@drp825_ Bear market for sure.
High beta stocks have taken the biggest hits.
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@GrindeOptions We’re at a 5% from ATH are we in bear market territory?
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@GrindeOptions How will a long war and the strait of Hormuz being closed for months affect the stock market
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Am I wrong in thinking this way?
As we head into the second quarter of 2026, we see more and more news being released for what’s coming.
It’s making me more bullish than I already am.
The infrastructure is in place, the map is figured out and they are taking action.
What’s left is execution on their part.
Getting timelines in order.
This company is becoming more and more efficient as we speak.
The worldwide supply chain is getting more robust.
Their flywheel is working perfectly.
The doubters are out in full force saying they’ll never live up to the hype but in my opinion, that couldn’t be further from the truth.
The future is here.
If you’re not first you’re last.
You must be wondering what the hell I am even talking about?
Well you’d be surprised, it’s $TSLA.
We are surely off to a rough start here in 2026 but I think the company is performing better than then ever.
Robotaxi service has launched and we are about to see the scale of this business take off.
Cybercab is being produced on the new line at Giga Texas.
Cortex 2 is being built.
Giga Nevada is about to release the semi here over the next couple months.
Giga Houston will be coming online shortly.
FSD is now subscription only.
Tesla is now back in the solar game and Giga New York is about to be cranking them out.
Elon announced Tesla will be building a terafab.
Optimus factory at Giga Texas is in the works.
The dry electrode has been solved.
The lithium refinery in Texas is running.
Tesla supercharging is growing very fast.
Tesla energy has quite literally unlimited demand as AI scales.
SpaceX IPO and a possible merger between both companies.
Tesla semi and Robotaxi to Germany potentially!
$44 billion of cash in hand.
Margins are increasing as efficiency increases and as demand grows.
The stock is at $380 per share I think it’s a steal deal.
I think the next 5 years is going to freaking insane.
I’m buying on every dip.
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@GrindeOptions I think currently in this market is more about short term trading and when to determine a longer term strategy.
Many ideas as to what the bottom is but this is a day by day case as the war is still going on.
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@dayinthepark That’s the true question.
I think there are many chefs in that kitchen cooking up some top grade BS.
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@GrindeOptions Who's manipulating it, and how is that not illegal?
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@JasonL_Capital Majority should be shares and rest can be LEAPS or short term calls/puts.
I like hedging too.
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@GrindeOptions Yeah, I definitely own shares as well as LEAPS. And I'll occasionally sell calls against the LEAPS as well.
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You could buy 100 shares of $SOFI right now for $1,715.
Or you could buy the $20 call LEAP expiring January 2028 for $560. Same 100 shares of exposure. A fraction of the capital. Nearly two years of runway.
The trade:
Strike: $20
Expiration: January 21, 2028
Premium: ~$5.60 per contract
Breakeven: $25.60
If $SOFI hits $35, this LEAP returns ~168%
If $SOFI hits $40, this LEAP returns ~257%
If $SOFI hits $50, this LEAP returns ~435%
Buying 100 shares at $17.15 and watching it hit $50 is a 191% return. The LEAP more than doubles that.
Why I like the setup:
- $1B+ quarterly revenue
- CEO bought $1M in stock on the open market
- Banking, lending, investing, and crypto all under one roof
- Stock is down significantly from highs
- 672 days to expiration gives the thesis time to play out
The most I can lose is the $560 premium. The upside is multiples of that.
That's the power of LEAPs.
NFA DYOR

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@NickGibbsIAG @amitisinvesting Bring $PLTR and $NVDA down further
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I think it was @amitisinvesting who said it best yesterday.. It doesn't feel like "Extreme Fear"..
Then again $TSLA is at $382 $Meta is at $605 and $PLTR is at $154.
Companies like $NVDA are extremely undervalued... Bonds say Rate Hikes coming.. Fed somewhat acting like that too.. Oil, Iran, TSA, PPI..
Still... I agree. It doesn't feel like Extreme Fear

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🚨#BREAKING: Denmark has reportedly prepared a contingency plan to blow up and destroy key runways in Greenland if the United States ever attempted an invasion
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