Dropped the stagnant positions that are just sit and watch. Anybody can do this. Adjusted for risk of stagflation, which is becoming higher. You can mix-and-match this with my Actively Managed portfolio (see screen recording) by adding money to this one, it's free with your subscription, to match your risk tolerance. I always am a fan of riding the dip and buying the whole way, but I don't know everyone's financial details: time horizon, income, debt, savings, etc. So I think it's only reasonable to provide this alternative. Use public, no need to approve trades, they happen quick: share.public.com/Adam771875
Link to port: marketplace.joinautopilot.com/landing/1218/5…
After today's economic data, the economy is growing at a third of what it was one quarter ago, inflation won't come down, the Fed has no tools to use because jobs are still holding up, businesses aren't investing, and consumers are running out of gas. That's stagflation potential.
Stocks that replaced this boring port while still keeping with the theme:
ENERGY (Brent $100, WTI $95)
XOM (Exxon) - Big daddy, prints cash above $80 crude, fat dividend, buyback hungry
CVX (Chevron) - Cleanest balance sheet of the majors, consistent returns
COP (ConocoPhillips) - Pure oil and gas play
DVN (Devon) - Just absorbed Coterra for $21.5B, variable dividend tied directly to commodity prices. Oil rips, payout=yummerz
MPC (Marathon Petroleum) - Margins go absolutely fucking nuts when crude is elevated
DEFENSE (Iran conflict, Trump's $1.5T defense budget proposal)
LMT (Lockheed) - +50% YTD, F-35, missile defense. Iran situation is a direct catalyst. Kinda a no brainer.
RTX (Raytheon) - Patriot batteries, missile systems, every conflict rehappening. this thing prints like my CPA printing all my brokerage 1099's
KTOS (Kratos) - Drones and autonomous systems, +263% YTD, most levered play to modern warfare spending. The good Modern Warfare, not the new stuff. Hop on Arc Raiders.
GOLD MINERS (Gold parked above $5,200, a duh stagflation hedge)
NEM (Newmont) - Largest gold miner on earth, margins above 70% at current prices, free cash flow machine. The fundamentals are pristine as hell.
GOLD (Barrick) - Record 2025 efficiency, AISC at $1,950, every dollar gold moves up directly benefits their margin
Staples (Pricing power and purely consumer Staples (hah) defense
PM (Philip Morris) - +11% annual EPS growth, pricing power that quit just like their users. People don't stop smoking because inflation is hot. They might use it as a lighter, though.
PG (Procter & Gamble) - Cost passthrough is easy. Tide doesn't have a recession.
MIDSTREAM (Fee-based cash flow, high yield)
EPD (Enterprise Products) - 6.3% yield, 27 consecutive years of dividend growth
ET (Energy Transfer) - 7.1% yield, trades at a discount to peers, 3-5% annual EBITDA growth
HEALTHCARE (Inelastic demand)
JNJ (J&J) - 63 consecutive years of dividend increases. And people want medical care even if the economy gets wrecked.
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Just letting you know, Robinhood is going to release HSA’s and the stock will jump. I’m never wrong sometimes 100% of the time. Should’ve read my TradingView buy analysis when it was $8.
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