John Smith

@Keir_Starmer Translation: Permanent security state assessment is that nation doesn’t want this war of aggression and we could lose the war and get riots in streets. Risk is high and is not worth the loot. We will revisit this if US manage to soften Iranian defenses. Meanwhile bomb ahead.

I will always make decisions that are in the national interest. It’s why we aren’t getting dragged into the Middle East conflict, and why we are fighting to protect your living standards. And while opposition parties have responded by dividing communities, we respond with hope and pride. Pride in our communities, and the hope of a country that’s better for our children. That’s what we’re fighting for. Vote Labour on Thursday 7 May.

@mdubowitz You are attacking Iran as the blood thirsty racist monsters that you are because it doesn’t have one. Basically your idea is: don’t have any deterrents so we can attack at low cost.

Next time, let’s wait until Iran has nuclear-armed ICBMs, 10,000 ballistic missiles, a Chinese- and Russian-built military, a million attack drones, a fully operational terror network, and hundreds of billions to harden its economy. Then we’ll fight to reopen Hormuz.

@thesiriusreport It’s not true, far from it.

Assuming it is true, Trump is ready to end the Iran War without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. If so that is an admittance of defeat. However it is just as likely to mean a ground invasion is imminent. Impossible to believe a word that comes out of his mouth, never mind third party reports of such words.

@CarlZha Adam Tooze, that’s the only lie in this piece.

Where's the lie?

@DD_Geopolitics What does need to happen for you moron sheeples to realize all media is propaganda and part of war effort? How many times the same administration and media need to lie for you moron sheeples to understand it’s just smoke and mirrors? What the actual F is wrong with you?!

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump is ready to end the U.S. war on Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, effectively leaving Tehran in control of the chokepoint and delaying any effort to restore full access. In recent days, he and his team concluded that forcing the strait open would drag the war beyond his four- to six-week timeline. Instead, Washington aims to "cripple Iran’s navy and missile stockpiles," then wind down fighting and shift to "diplomatic pressure to restore trade flows." - WSJ Just take the L and go home.

@7NewsSydney Building up landing ships to “protect”, don’t ever think it’s to take part in an invasion!

The Australian Army will have a fleet of warships for the first time in 50 years, carrying troops, tanks and even missiles to protect our coastline.

@CarlZha This whole idea of US going to war with China comes from the 100 years misunderstanding perpetuated by western education system & propaganda that US has won WW1 & WW2 when reality US has never fought a peer power nor won a war against a real power.

Samo wants to fight a long war against Iran, THEN another long war against China. L(Mao)

@CarlZha If this super stupid plan goes ahead you can be 100% sure that there has been a deal behind the scene to give dumdum Trump a way out, exactly like what happened in Venezuela. However if Iranian leaders fall for this stupid deal they deserve what will come as Israel won’t stop.

This is the DUMBEST plan to come out of Washington. And that's saying a lot.

@laraseligman If this super stupid plan goes ahead you can be 100% sure that there has been a deal behind the scene to give dumdum Trump a way out, exactly like what happened in Venezuela. However if Iranian leaders fall for this stupid deal they deserve what will come as Israel won’t stop.

NEW; President Trump is weighing a military operation to extract nearly 1,000 pounds of uranium from Iran, according to U.S. officials, a complex and risky mission that would likely put American forces inside the country for days or longer. wsj.com/politics/natio…

@SimonDixonTwitt Like I said: an unfalsifiable narrative. fyi meeting has never been confirmed by Beijing & Trump originally mentioned April. Meaning your story line has the same “fluidity” as Trump.

My estimation, based on the current escalation cycle, is that it could happen any time before the Xi–Trump meeting in mid-May, if it is not postponed again. It’s a fluid situation. I’ll keep giving updates as we learn more. The market is not going to like it. The global reset has already started.

@CarlZha Just needs some duct tape to be as good as new

U.S officials said this E3 Sentry AWACS plane had been "damaged" The damage:

@elonmusk Of course you did buddy, of course you did!

Given that I have built two companies in widely different fields to trillion dollar plus valuations simultaneously, I am might be getting a few things right once in a while

@CarlZha China’s natural position is to be a most of the world economy & virtually for all of history that’s been the case, no surprises. But a more important element is missing, which is what led to century of humiliation & that’s not having an outreaching OS, unlike west.

After WW2, US made up nearly 50% of thw world's manufacturing output. China just topped that. Let that sink in. If US thinks fight against China will be a replay of Pacific War, then US today would be Imperial Japan in 1941, China would the US at the end of WW2.

@snekotron @cirnosad I don’t think he is a willing plant. I think it’s more of an algorithmic plant unbeknown to him. I would say his fundamentals are spot on though, ie how the world actually works. This kind of stuff are kind of noise really.

The source of the pages that were used to harm Hezbollah were a Hungarian subsidiary of a Taiwanese brand. Just your daily reminder that this Youtube star is a plant.

@ProfessorPape @benshapiro @megynkelly Is Ben Zio or other Zios going to go to the front line? No, so it’s all upside for them and no downside. Not very hard to understand.

@benshapiro says the U.S. can outlast Iran. We’ve heard that before. Vietnam: ~58,000 Americans killed—and still no strategic victory. Serious question: What is the actual path to victory here—and what level of cost is acceptable? @megynkelly this is a debate worth having.

Ben Shapiro: let’s discuss this. When was the last time US outlasted a foe in a long war in the Middle East or Asia? Vietnam? No. Afghan Taliban? No. Notice the pattern: escalation favors Iran.

@witte_sergei 100% it’s Iran. You are using the pedantic definition.

Iran isn’t the “oldest country” no matter which pedantic definition you use. The answer is either Egypt, China, Japan, or San Marino.

@araghchi What the fuck is wrong with you & rest of your leadership?! Diplomacy? Extended deadline? Deadline? You are in a survival war & still think diplomacy works? So Trump was telling the truth about talking to someone inside Iran. Pathetic.

Israel has hit 2 of Iran's largest steel factories, a power plant and civilian nuclear sites among other infrastructure. Israel claims it acted in coordination with the U.S. Attack contradicts POTUS extended deadline for diplomacy. Iran will exact HEAVY price for Israeli crimes

@ProfessorPape Insightful as always. Considering the way things are going, it seems to me that the only potential off-ramp would be if the ground invasion fail spectacularly in first couple of days, forcing a complete political shift. Otherwise a costly landing means trap is set.

Iran War: We are not watching a path to peace Three warning signs now visible: 1. “Talks” without a ceasefire 2. Expansion to economic choke points 3. Quiet preparation for ground forces This is how limited wars become global disasters

@SimonDixonTwitt I honestly yet to figure out what’s in this silly model of yours for you? Anyway, your predictions are unfalsifiable, you do realize that right?

Yes, it does. The war reversed the previous trend of dollar weakening, strengthening the dollar again while increasing the US deficit and foreign dependency. My prediction is that the war will end with a managed, time-sensitive global reset into a multipolar framework, after which those trends will revert back to where they were. The bond market, US yields, gold, and oil prices all point to this. This will likely be triggered before Trump visits China, now moved from April to May. If not, it risks triggering an extended global recession that could break global markets.

@pati_marins64 Where is “15 Points Plan” come from? He just made it up.

I love when the mainstream media validates my posts a few days later.

Why Iran is Winning the War Beyond the Blast: Why Strategy, Not Firepower, is Winning the Day Asymmetric wars should not be analyzed through the lens of damage sustained, but rather by the objectives achieved. Vietnam was hit by 7.5 million tons of bombs and won the war. Afghanistan was struck by over 2 million tons of Soviet bombs and won. In the early 2000s, Afghanistan was again invaded and hit by over 200,000 tons of American bombs. Once again, it won, forcing a desperate U.S. withdrawal under the Taliban’s advance, leaving billions of dollars in equipment behind. Today, the Taliban still rule Afghanistan, just as the CPV, which won the war and unified the country, rules Vietnam. In the current war against Iran, three coalition objectives were clear: 1Dismantle the nuclear program. 2Topple the regime. 3Limit the missile program. 1. Dismantling the Nuclear Program 
Not only has it not been dismantled, but the coalition is unsure of its exact location. The IAEA states there is a new facility where material was moved, but cannot pinpoint where or if it is all in one place. Furthermore, while the North Korean leader routinely fires missiles into the sea, waging a “war against Godzilla”, -Netanyahu has been doing the same on the Israeli side, but dropping bombs on rocks, as if trying to kill “The Thing” from the Fantastic Four. The fact is, these facilities built with Iranian UHPC (Ultra-High Performance Concrete) can only be destroyed with “boots on the ground” and an invasion operation that the U.S. is currently unable to execute. While the future landscape may change, the dismantling effort has failed since 2025. 2. Toppling the Regime 
Israel not only had a plan for decapitation strikes but convinced the Americans that these assassinations and bombings would create the perfect atmosphere for an uprising. The plan failed. The sheer violence of the killings and bombings terrified the Iranians themselves. They even bombed the residences of regime opponents, suggesting they wanted to “clear the field” to handpick a successor. No uprising occurred. Instead, the Iranian government had a plan, establishing a chain of 4 to 7 successors for every key position. These attacks may have actually breathed new life into the Iranian theocracy. 3. Limiting the Missile Program 
On March 20, Bloomberg reported that Iran has already launched over 3,000 missiles. More importantly, Iran deployed HGVs (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles), technology only Russia and China possess, demonstrating surprising technological advancement. Also on the 20th, Iran surprised again by launching missiles at Diego Garcia, located nearly 4,000 km from its territory. The missile program has not been halted; on the contrary, it appears to be expanding.