Robert A. Pape

Most wars escalate beyond what leaders intend. I study this dynamic — the Escalation Trap. The Iran war is now showing the same strategic patterns seen in Vietnam and Kosovo. I write short strategic briefings explaining what to watch next. Subscribe: escalationtrap.substack.com

Most people are misreading this war. It isn’t escalating gradually—it’s about to cross a threshold From disruption → damage That’s when escalation becomes economically irreversible. What comes next: escalationtrap.substack.com/p/from-disrupt…

The term “escalation trap” is now spreading. Our community is already ahead of it—understanding not just escalation, but the logic driving what comes next. I’ll map the next phase Sunday, Mar 22, 4pm CT on substack live briefing

Iran war, Day 19: —Iran horizontal escalation con’t — Tit-for-tat LNG strikes —Oil surges to $114 —Iran talks with Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey on US “aggression” —2500 Marines in 7-10 days —Escalation Trap, Stage 3 nears

Iran's horizontal escalation strategy and control of Hormuz are beginning to have real impact -- the first economic shoe to fell today

The shock waves of the Iran war are hitting Asia, with serious economic and security consequences as I explain in my new article in China Daily: chinadaily.com.cn/a/202603/19/WS…

Yesterday, I had an extensive conversation on Unherd on the strong reasons to think Iran is winning — up over $1 billion in oil sales, controlling Hormuz, shocking energy markets, and exerting real pressure on the Gulf states to distance themselves from US and Israel’s war. youtu.be/aQuApsJK0gM

The Strait of Hormuz is only the starting point. As escalation deepens, risks will not stay confined to shipping or energy. They tend to spread across regions, targets, and domains that are harder to anticipate. I’ll map the next-stage escalation pathways Sunday, Mar 22, 4pm CT / 5pm ET. escalationtrap.substack.com/p/sunday-mar-2…

Energy markets are now being shaped in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already imposed costs by disrupting oil flows. A U.S. move to reopen it risks triggering the next phase of escalation—with direct implications for global markets. I’ll map the next-stage pathways Sunday, Mar 22, 4pm CT / 5pm ET Stay ahead of where the war is heading: escalationtrap.substack.com/p/sunday-mar-2…

Iran is not losing. It is gaining power. Since Feb 28, Iran has exported over 10 million barrels of oil, earning a $1 billion or more—as price of oil has soared, and shock waves hit the region and western economies.

I told Piers Morgan: the biggest mistake right now is thinking Iran is losing. By disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, it has already gained leverage—and efforts to reopen it could deepen the escalation. This is the escalation trap. x.com/piersuncensore…

After tracking terrorism for 25 years, this is a flashing red light — as bright as Ive seen prior to a serious attack

The next phase of this conflict will be decided in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has already shown it can disrupt global oil flows. Whether the U.S. can reopen it without triggering wider escalation—that’s the escalation trap. Live briefing Sunday, Mar 22, 4pm CT / 5pm ET. escalationtrap.substack.com/p/sunday-mar-2…

Most analysts are asking whether the U.S. is winning That’s the wrong question. Iran has already gained leverage—by disrupting the Strait of Hormuz and imposing costs on the global economy The danger now is that a U.S. effort to reopen it deepens the escalation. That’s the escalation trap I’ll discuss this live on Morning Joe at 8:50am ET / 7:50am CT.

U.S. intelligence confirms that Iran’s regime is harder, more dangerous…in over 100 years, air power alone has never toppled a regime washingtonpost.com/national-secur…

Iran hit another oil tanker hours ago, an average of a vessel a day. Hormuz won’t be safe anytime soon

Iran is more powerful now than before the war — it controls the price of world oil and more likely to fracture the US coalition than US is to grow it. Stunning gains in 17 days

Why leaders around the world should see the frameworks in The Escalation Trap Substack

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