Robert A. Pape

Everyone says Trump can't escalate the Iran war because of the midterms So why did the U.S. strike another 140 targets today? 300 earlier this week? The answer isn't military -- It's political July 13 (Mon., 7 PM ET) on Escalation Trap substack, I'll explain why incentives for escalation are getting stronger—not weaker—and why the next phase of the war is than most think

Chicago, Minneapolis, now Maine -- ICE shootings continue These are NOT one-offs My new book "Our Own Worst Enemies" and the chapter "ICE & the Fracturing of US Identity" explain why we're spiraling Read the full story & get your copy: thenewpress.org/books/our-own-…

Markets priced in another TACO Trump didn't Another 140 U.S. strikes today are exactly what the Escalation Trap predicted: once the political logic changes, escalation becomes more likely—not less. Markets now catching up Read Escalation Trap substack and stay ahead of the risks

Trump just declared the US "THE GUARDIAN" of Hormuz and slapped a 20% fee on ALL cargo! The gauntlet is thrown down. The Battle for Hormuz is LIVE How bad will things get from here? Join my live briefing TONIGHT at 7 PM ET for the ultimate Escalation Trap breakdown!

On Fox, Trump says: “We’re taking the Strait…we’re gonna get paid” Iran vows revenge against Americans worldwide Not even pretense of negotiations Full scale war coming

Trump escalates Iran war with 440+ strikes despite midterm predictions Analysts miss the real danger: two distinct political engines are driving Washington and Tehran into a spiraling conflict Is a larger war now inevitable? Dive into the full strategic breakdown on Escalation Trap substack

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Everyone says Trump can't escalate the Iran war because of the midterms So why did the U.S. strike another 140 targets today? 300 earlier this week? The answer isn't military -- It's political July 13 (Mon., 7 PM ET) on Escalation Trap substack, I'll explain why incentives for escalation are getting stronger—not weaker—and why the next phase of the war is than most think

Four months ago I warned the Iran War was entering an Escalation Trap that could lead to pressure for ground operations This weekend, Australia's national breakfast show asked me to "grade my own homework" Watch the interview—and why I believe Stage 3 may now be approaching youtube.com/watch?v=f1c4CR…

Hormuz has been effectively closed for days, as video shows Bad news for the world economy as oil inventories keep running down August shock is becoming more likely by the day

The escalation trap is gripping hard. Major escalation is coming Minutes ago, Iran’s Supreme Leader responded to Trump’s nuclear threat Pledging “Revenge” for his slain father and predecessor, and for all ~4000 Iranians killed by US/Israel strikes

“1000 missiles” is a thinly veiled reference to nuclear weapons. For my analysis on how the Iran war will unfold at Escalation Trap Substack

The new Iranian assassination threats radically shifting the Iran war Forget "TACO"—Trump is no longer backing down By laying out explicit instructions to blanket Iran with nuclear weapons if targeted, Trump is calling their bluff and severely diminishing odds of any retreat

The NATO summit may have changed the Ukraine war more than any Russian missile strike this week Tomorrow at 5 PM ET I'll explain why Putin may now see a narrow strategic window—and why the Iran war could become Russia's greatest opportunity Live briefing on Prof Pape Substack

Putin is trapped As Russia loses ground in Ukraine, Putin is desperately hunting for an escape hatch—and a widening Middle East war is his ultimate wildcard Will NATO or Russia prevail? Read why the next phase of Ukraine will be decided in Iran, new analysis on Prof Pape's Substack

With talk of ground ops swirling, it is important to see how Stage 3 of Escalation Trap may begin Look at the map of US blockade Ground ops would likely begin by restoring the blockade and taking Iran’s coastal cities east of Hormuz Think weeks, not days— and casualties

ABC confirms with Trump officials that the new ongoing US strikes on Iran are bigger and hitting —Coastal radar sites —ant-ship missile sites — IRGC C2 Exactly targets relevant for the Marines to seize Qeshm or Kharg in Gulf

Watch the video Virtually ALL ships passing Hormuz near Iran— almost NONE entering Iran’s message received — ships preparing for major escalation

The Iran ceasefire is over, MOU dead. Both Washington and Tehran now have reasons to escalate. Trump already signaling more tonight How far will this go? The key indicators to watch next are in my new Situation Report at Escalation Trap, Free

Trump calls ceasefire and MOU “over” and Iranians “scum” Iran vows major retaliation This means — Escalation by both Iran and US — No end in sight — Economic shocks — Iran nuclear weapons, and the fears this will create