Kip Kool

@intern_cc Agree with above. Thing is though oil prices if they reach 150/200 plus are unlikely to last long. Its pretty much the entire worlds best interest to not have high oil prices and so the pressure put on Iran would be imense. At that point it would be iran against the world.

looks like Trump is looking for a way out, as America has massively underestimated Iran's military capabilities, its domestic support, and its willingness to escalate. However, I think the market is overlooking two major factors: 1.) The Iran Factor: The market and the world might see that Iran has held its own in this confrontation, outperforming what most of the world (including the US government) expected in terms of technology, strategy, and readiness to escalate. With the destruction/damage of regional US military bases, a quasi-nationalization of the Persian Gulf, and the dwindling interceptor and stand-off munitions arsenals of its adversaries, Iran will not be willing to simply stop this war until its own objectives are met. I think the market hasn't fully digested the current state of US military superiority and assumes Iran will just happily stop the moment the US stops or agree to negotiations. Well, the US has used negotiations twice in a row as a distraction to prepare an attack on Iran; negotiating a third time anytime soon won't be easy. Furthermore, Iran's supreme religious and state leader was killed in the first strike, which cannot simply be forgotten from an Iranian perspective. Iran also holds the strategic initiative in this confrontation, and the idea of negotiations is utterly discredited within Iranian political circles, radically shifting the political landscape. After decades of sanctions, Iran now sees a way out of its situation and a chance to completely reshape the power dynamics in the region. Iran has also seen that its one-off attack on Israel after the strike on its embassy in Syria, its attack on Israel after the killings of Haniyeh and Nasrallah, and its agreement to end the 12-day war failed to establish deterrence. The strategy Iran has employed this time, unlike all previous times, was not a strategy of deterrence. There were no massive salvos and no huge volume of spectacular impacts in Israel (unlike the 12-day war). Instead, there has been a systematic grinding down of surrounding US bases, US radars, and American/Israeli military capacities. All of this indicates that Iran is pursuing a clear strategy this time and isn't just trying to establish deterrence. Another factor is that what Iran states as its objectives and offers as conditions to stop are absolutely unacceptable from an American or Israeli perspective (dismantling all US bases in the region, a new regime in the Persian Gulf: i.e., the nationalization of the Gulf under Iranian control, ending Israeli military operations against Iran's allies, lifting sanctions, etc.). Finally, this war has given Iran's system of government a form of legitimacy and domestic backing that it hasn't had for decades, comparable to how the Iran-Iraq war solidified the new order after the Iranian Revolution. Therefore, from a rational standpoint, I see no reason why Iran, as a self-interest-maximizing actor, would happily agree to an American-led cessation of hostilities. 2.) The Israel/US Factor: From an Israeli perspective, I wouldn't overstate the mood in Tel Aviv regarding dissatisfaction and protests, as Tel Aviv was never a Netanyahu stronghold anyway. An Iranian victory would be an absolute disaster for Israel, as Iran would emerge as the first state enemy in Israel's history that Israel couldn't defeat. The capabilities of Iran and its allies would increase exponentially after an end to hostilities, especially considering that Iran would come out of the conflict in a much better position with more resources at its disposal. The Iran-aligned forces in Yemen are showing massive growth in their capabilities; they successfully rendered the port of Eilat unusable and fired rockets 2,000 km into Israel. Even if those didn't cause massive damage, it is a deeply troubling development for Israel that such an actor can continually expand its capabilities with Iran's help. The same goes for Lebanese Hezbollah, which, despite all the bombing, the elimination of its leadership, infiltration, and the loss of its supply routes in Syria, has apparently been able to rebuild its capacities under the most adverse conditions. They are currently engaging Israel in ground combat and carrying out high-volume rocket attacks. America is in a real catch-22 here. I think what the US will still try to do is seize Chabahar in southern Iran to gain a better negotiating position. But given the current status quo, a simple withdrawal like the one in Yemen back then (declare victory and pull out) just isn't possible. Israel cannot afford that; America would be completely discredited in the eyes of its Arab allies, and it would mean a massive loss of its own ability to project global power.

@HeadedNine @Bluntz_Capital Is $RGLD the best sleep at night but gold exposure bet in your opinion?

@Bluntz_Capital Yes, on a cycles timeframe we now have a very clear low. We either consolidate via a range and retest these lows around September and then move to new highs, or we consolidate via an ascending triangle and break out sooner. x.com/headednine/sta…

looks to me $gold now at a good bid zone imo, clear abc on daily, we also have a clear 5 up on ltfs from the low when you zoom in and wicked the 200dma on daily. wouldnt be surrpised it takes a while from here and ends up going sideways for a bit however i do think ultimately that was the low.

@pvpterminal yes do it!

Temp check, we'd appreciate your feedback: We are working hard adding HL with trad perps to our tradfi desktop terminal. Let us know if there is demand for a free web terminal with a curated feed primarily geared towards tradfi perps. It's a big undertaking and we want to be sure the demand is there. Thanks!

@HeadedNine I've been looking at $BTG too, curious your thoughts on it. -forward P/E of just 6.6x (super cheap relative to peers) - clear catalysts coming up (Goose mine, prepay expiring in june From my search one of the most asymmetric risk-reward opportunities

Price action delivering more gold and silver pain but added two top producers I have wanted for a long time: $AGI and $AYA. Were richly priced a few weeks ago. I’ll take the 30% and 40% discounts.

@solo_levelingx Bars/Clubs are not inherently the enemy of progress. Uncontrolled, frequent, low value use of them is. You are allowed to be human. Constant grinding without any release valve leads to burnout, lower testosterone (chronic stress), resentment outlook on life.

I don't see why you would ever go to a bar / club You should be goal oriented Making money, improving your health, looking better, getting a good girl These venues are literally the antithesis to all of those goals

@IncomeSharks @TheLongInvest May I ask you which ones? 😅

@TheLongInvest Stocks on a discount is the safe haven

What Safe Haven's are you considering right now?

@0xAnteater @wsbmod not really bold now is it? ...look at what you posted lol.

@wsbmod bold assumption i don’t

if anything - the opposite effect is most likely. increased visiblity of hyperliquid increases hyperliquid's risk.

@iam4x nah more to do with this i reckon: QATARENERGY CONFIRMS STRIKE ON RAS LAFFAN INDUSTRIAL CITY QATARENERGY: EXTENSIVE DAMAGE HAS BEEN CAUSED, NO CASUALTIES

Hmm $NATGAS big winner of FOMC, or just catching up on oil markets?

🚨 NORTH KOREA JUST FIRED A BALLISTIC MISSILE INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN: – Launched today from an inland region toward the east – South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff confirmed the launch – Japan’s Defense Ministry tracked the projectile – Landed in the Sea of Japan outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone – Third North Korean missile test this year – This comes days after Kim Jong Un oversaw cruise missile tests from North Korea’s latest warship – Kim recently ordered the “expansion and modernization” of missile production and construction of new weapons factories – North Korea watched the US bomb Iran one day after Iran agreed to a nuclear deal. The message they received: giving up your weapons doesn’t protect you – Kim Jong Un said nuclear deterrence is necessary due to “recent geopolitical crisis and complicated international events.” That’s him referencing the Iran war directly – North Korea also watched the US snatch Venezuela’s president last month. Another regime the US decided to remove – South Korea and the US are currently running joint military exercises through March 19. This launch is a direct provocation during those drills The US is fighting a war in the Middle East, managing a closed Strait of Hormuz, dealing with oil around $100, and now North Korea is testing missiles. The world is getting more unstable by the day. I’ll keep monitoring the situation and I’ll keep you updated on everything. Turn on notifications, this is EXTREMELY important. Many people will regret not following.

@uniformmirror03 @IncomeSharks @ceraliza on average numnuts. hes not talking about then is he you wet flannel

@IncomeSharks @ceraliza Debatable, grew up in a very poor household and I do none of those things

What habit immediately reveals that a person grew up in a poor household?

@intern_cc is it a ghost town?

$90 a night in Dubai rn (I'm aware of the risks, ty)

@aleabitoreddit I wouldnt say its cheap its probably fair value. At 33x forward earnings and 51x trailing, it trades at a massive premium to every social media peer except Snap (which is loss-making). So yah its still not cheap by any traditional value metric.

$RDDT is getting ridiculous. Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months. If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous. And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth. If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit. It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market. One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings, we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.

@smartestmoney @PratikKala Are you concerned with HYPE being like most utility tokens eventually- theres still risk seeing value competed away unless they build something truly non-commoditized. If fees get raced to the bottom, even aggressive buybacks won't generate much firepower.

@PratikKala Why bother rotating when $HYPE benefits from all of the above?

think the gold silver and oil trade is over time for the Bitcoin trade

@solo_levelingx US is good for Manlets, seems like most women in the US are so short?

From my observations the hottest women with the best genes are in the US

@itscorrekt so higher first? or are we already at the peak

My best guess of the trajectory from here

🛢️ On Energy Prices Not an energy nor geopolitical expert but this looks pretty unsustainable

@iam4x are you saying it is better then claude right now?

Damn GPT 5.4 could finally help pin point a very obscure memory leak happening that both Claude and 5.3-codex were hallucinating non existing issues. I’m mostly doing Plan mode within Codex, asking for creating long running scripts that would simulate app usage where the memory leak is suspected to be, and to output the right amount of logs so GPT 5.4 can debug it from here. It still trying to fix other stuff when I’m not using explicitly telling it where it is and to don’t touch the rest, but its getting really impressive and time savior. By the way, Codex app is really the best for engineering, as you can comment the diffs like you would work with other engineers on Github and its much easier to make code review and continue from there.

@skyiszen and to you to my man, we have differing opinions its all good 🫡

@KipKoolCrypto hope u have a good morning

Iran's goal isnt to destroy the American/Israeli military. Its to crash the US economy/stock market so that Trump pulls out.

@skyiszen You do you buddy. Guy thinks "crash the S&P 500" strategy is a realistic and controllable lever for Tehran. lmao

@skyiszen Please just read into the regimes power structure. It’s decentralised and fractionalised on purpose. I think once you do that you realise your argument is super far fetched

@KipKoolCrypto See you’re thinking about it too hard. Too smart for your own good. It’s simple