CC Analyst 🇦🇪

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CC Analyst 🇦🇪

CC Analyst 🇦🇪

@intern_cc

Analyst @crypto_condom | Equity Analyst at Stewards

Dubai Katılım Aralık 2021
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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
sigh, guess I'm in TradFi now... My first article makes the case that US decoupling from China isn't a political choice but a structural necessity => Washington fell into a New Thucydides Trap, pouring resources into defense while China built the real leverage in critical minerals, semiconductors, and supply chains. The investment implication => expect this decoupling to accelerate, not reverse. linkedin.com/pulse/why-us-d…
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Gray
Gray@BigLakeDreamer·
@intern_cc It really is a paradox, isn’t it?
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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
its deepseek panic again, but just one layer deeper. the conversation cache kimi shrinks was never the big memory eater, the model itself is. K3 needs It needs 1.5TB of fast memory just to load, before a single user connects. and because the model fills that memory, the cache gets pushed out to regular RAM and SSDs anyway. the "memory saving" model creates fresh DRAM and storage demand. and the car analogy fails because it assumes demand is saturated. if one rack suddenly serves 100x the users, the cost per user drops 99%, and that unlocks all the use cases that were too expensive before. cheaper doesnt mean less spend, it means way more usage. we literally ran this experiment in jan 2025 with deepseek, nvidia fell 17% in a day on this exact logic and compute demand ended up higher than before. gpu rental prices are up 20-36% across every chip generation since, even the 5 year old ones, precisely because cheap inference exploded
Kai@kai_xbt

Bubble Boi reveals the Kimi breakthrough that made him sell his entire portfolio overnight "Kimi is using a technique called linear attention that cuts down memory growth entirely to a fixed size, and they didn't just get okay results, they got world-class results. This same technique was used by the Qwen models but nobody thought it would scale. It's looking more and more likely that it scales pretty well, and if that's the case the memory per user is always fixed." "So if every frontier model goes to this, the demand for DRAM drops significantly. They already bought the memory, they just serve more and more users. It's like you had a car and someone found a way to make it 10 times faster, you're not going to buy a new car." "But you also have to readjust the assumption that hyperscalers are going to crazily spend for the next two years. What's to say there's not another innovation that shrinks this more and now you go from serving a thousand users to a hundred thousand users on one server rack? How do you justify spending 500k on a new rack at that point?"

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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
Saudi hit Hodeidah, so Houthi retaliation is live, and the highest value target is Yanbu. That's the terminal on the East-West line, the whole thing Riyadh built to export around Hormuz. Worth remembering Yemen has been under Saudi blockade since 2015. The Houthis might see their moment now: either the blockade comes off, or the Red Sea gets closed and Saudi critical infrastructure gets hit. And they can back that up. Eleven years of capacity build, weapons plus engineers trained in Iran. So it's not one chokepoint anymore. Hormuz plus Bab el-Mandeb plus the western terminals. The exposure sits on delivery. Export capacity can drop with production fully intact. Insurance, security spend, precautionary shut-ins cost money whether or not anything gets hit. The Red Sea leg is separate.
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COKE❄️
COKE❄️@0xcoked·
Last night is the first night since the start of the new US military campaign that there were 0 attacks on Iran, after a few days of extremely weak attacks targeting sand dunes in Khuzestan and Ahvaz. The writing on the wall is clear, oil top is in soon, if not already, imo.
COKE❄️ tweet media
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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
tokens are getting commoditized, an llm ships every 38 hours and the same open model is served by 5+ providers at wildly different prices. when the product is identical the only thing left is price. Friend of mine launched @Omniousai Spot market for inference, every request clears via auction in under 25ms with a signed receipt.
Omnious | Inference Capital Markets@Omniousai

1/ Today we're launching Omnious: Inference Capital Markets. Any model, from any provider, always at the best price, because every request clears inside a live market via RFQ in less than 25ms. AI that's priced, proved & policed. 🧵

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CC Analyst 🇦🇪 retweetledi
CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
Interestingly, no one seems to be paying attention to this. $XRP validator notes a privacy framework for confidential transfers is going to a vote soon. 👀
Vet@Vet_X0

Privacy is around the corner for XRP Ledger! XLS-96 Confidential Transfers authored by @aanchalmalhotre @ja_akinyele and a list of other engineers. A native infrastructure feature to allow "Institutions to go from off chain to on chain " "Allows private amount distribution of assets among institutions" Initially tried to do with XRP but a better hybrid path was taken with issued assets. Privacy where it's needed and not a base case. I think thats the better path as well. @lucbocahut and Ayo dived together with me in the new XRPL Preview series into this upcoming feature for the XRPL. With a sneak peek of what more to come on the privacy front to round up the tool kit and to achieve "hiding the transaction graph" ❤️ Very excited for privacy and i can't believe it's coming in a few weeks for voting.

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CC Analyst 🇦🇪 retweetledi
CC Analyst 🇦🇪 retweetledi
Ben Bajarin
Ben Bajarin@BenBajarin·
We built Gigawattonomics to test whether AI infrastructure can earn its cost of capital. At $6 per GPU-hour and 75% utilization, technical capex pays back in ~2.1 years and an owned $50bn campus in ~3.8 years. Revenue per watt makes the ROIC case visible. thediligencestack.com/p/gigawattonom…
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Ben Bajarin
Ben Bajarin@BenBajarin·
We built Gigawattonomics because we have been obsessed with one question. Can AI compute earn its cost of capital? Our model says economics can support attractive ROIC at reasonable pricing and utilization. The competitive question is who can sustain the most revenue per watt. thediligencestack.com/p/gigawattonom…
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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
enterprises are prioritizing memory compute/storage in their capex budgets. ibm's software and mainframe deals got pushed back because of it. as long as memory stays expensive and companies keep pulling compute/storage spend forward, the same capex reprioritization can repeat in 2H26 and into CY27. and at $217 $ibm just trades where it was in mid may, but on weaker fundamentals until now the memory supercycle was mostly visible in memory pricing itself. ibm's warning is third-party confirmation from the demand side: enterprises are so committed to securing compute/storage that they're cannibalizing the rest of their IT budget for it. the AI infra buildout is real end-demand beyond hyperscalers, losers are all these legacy enterprise IT competing for the same budget dollar. ibm is just the first visible casualty.
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Ben Bajarin
Ben Bajarin@BenBajarin·
In the past few months we have noted a drastic increase in moves to build new data centers 28 and beyond. (26-27 already locked). Countries know this is a matter of national security and competitiveness now. If you thought NVIDIA sold a lot of racks during GW constraints wait until you see what happens with GW abundance.
boymanrobshit@boymanrobshit

So I’m at Raise Conference in Paris and I will say this: the amount of power coming online in Europe over next year really disagrees with the current state of the stock market. Aka it’s a shit ton. Everyone and their mother is building a data center.

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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
Corollary: Start tracking government contract announcements and the websites of sovereign wealth funds for press releases that havent been announced by the recipient companies yet. You never know what you're gonna find & how much you might profit from it $BB 🇨🇦😜
ElBarto_Crypto@ElBarto_Crypto

Starting to track what CEO's say in podcasts vs earnings calls via @artemis analyst. Idea is earnings calls you can say so much, but podcasts you have more leeway. -Really good insights from @nikesharora ($PANW) on all things AI

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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
The North remembers and so do I. $SYN lied and scammed investors in 2023 over events surrounding Nima Capital. They failed to honor a governance proposal to lock tokens used for payment & market making to Nima Capital. This malicious (or incompetent) action resulted massive losses for investors as the token was dumped on chain. The team subsequently lied about the failure and kicked anyone out of Discord who spoke about it or asked about why the governance proposal to lock the tokens was not enacted. The team have rebranded on 3 occasions now and fucked over its investors in multiple ways and multiple instances. I wouldn’t touch this shit. Shills on CT should be ignored or looked at from the standpoint of personal gain/financial incentive (Arthur likely getting paid to shill)
Lookonchain@lookonchain

Arthur Hayes(@CryptoHayes) bought 6.16M $SYN($2.2M) an hour ago. $SYN surged more than 10x in June! arkm.com/explorer/entit…

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CC Analyst 🇦🇪
CC Analyst 🇦🇪@intern_cc·
regarding the raise 100M but mostly secondary, only 50 new primary. Rest was Northron (post G5, 20% holder) being cleared out in a structured way to kill the overhang. Cleaner float plus more cash for M&A Backlog last reported ~110-111M and still growing. Sam's point: it isn't just being worked off, it keeps compounding. "Next step function" from the last earnings call still hasn't hit. Sam expects it Sept to Nov, framed as another big leg on top of current growth. Doubled in 12 months, thinks they double again in 12 to 18. regarding peace: some restocking slows, but the shift to unmanned/drone platforms and baseline inventory rebuild continue regardless. Heat seeking validation tied it to Lockheed's May announcement that the next gen short range interceptor passed flight tests beating the cooled camera version. His read: their uncooled solution is smaller and cheaper, so it's now irresponsible not to consider it on every heat platform. More than a couple locked programs, including bigger and longer range ones. Met the Army this week on low cost interceptors.
Sam Rubin@skrubin

Great catching up with Tim from @AlphaWolfTrding , discuss past, present and the very bright future for @lightpathtech youtube.com/watch?v=n2D8jL…

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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
During today's @BlackBerry $BB earnings call, the team explicitly mentioned: "In this quarter, we secured a strategically important sale of SDP8 development tools to a U.S.-based software developer supplying a major Asian OEM." This is almost certainly @SonatusHQ. Sonatus is one of the largest US automotive software companies headquartered in Silicon Valley. They build vehicle software infrastructure rather than ECUs and are deeply involved in software-defined vehicle architecture. Sonatus has been partnered with Hyundai Motor Group since 2021. Hyundai is the textbook "major Asian OEM," and Sonatus is notably already inside QNX's ecosystem as a co-design partner alongside BlackBerry QNX on NXP's S32 CoreRide platform. What's especially interesting about this potential partnership is that Sonatus's historical stack leans Linux/middleware/cloud and can run on commodity microprocessors like those from NXP and Arm rather than being QNX-native.... so a fresh SDP8 tools purchase would mark an expansion into QNX-native development — which actually fits the "strategically important" framing BlackBerry used in the call today. Worth watching🤞
CryptoCondom tweet media
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom

The amount of alpha shared in the @BlackBerry call was incredible. Prior to AI, it was laborious to tease out information from these type calls to understand the bigger picture. CCap is socializing research on multiple larger partnerships/contracts discussed but not explicitly named to help form a broader analysis of future revenue and growth. Feel free to contribute and comment on the following if you like puzzles: To wit, These are the wins where BlackBerry described the counterparty's profile but withheld its identity: 1⃣Leading European automaker using Qualcomm Snapdragon SoCs. 2⃣Tier-1 supplier building a driver monitoring system for a Japanese OEM on Texas Instruments hardware. 3⃣Commercial vehicle OEM adopting SDP8. U.S. software developer supplying a major Asian OEM. 4⃣Leading semiconductor equipment manufacturer royalty commitment. 5⃣ China robotics exposure (page 14): An analyst noted a win there — "you have design win with OEM in that market" — and management discussed China exposure without naming the OEM.

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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
The @BlackBerry secure communications growth was a dark horse in earnings today. The segment has grown 4 quarters in a row with a 26% earnings growth Q1. In addition to the large deal with shared Services, Canada, $BB secured a number of renewals, expansions and new logos primarily across government, defense and regulated industries. In North America, $BB secured deals with the US Air Force, U.S. Cyber Command, the U.S. Senate, the US Secret Service, and the white House Communications Agency. 🔥🇺🇸
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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
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