Kirk Chivas
9.4K posts
Kirk Chivas
@KirkChivas
Mortgage Broker/Owner. First Commerce Financial. AZ, FL, MI & TX. NMLS # 160828
MI, USA 가입일 Şubat 2011
363 팔로잉2K 팔로워
An HOA management company is charging $1,387 to provide HOA documents for a property for documents they already have.
Talk about an absolute racket.
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The U.S. housing market is frozen.
Just 2.8% of homes changed hands in the first 9 months of 2025 — the lowest in 30+ years.
Why?
Over 70% of homeowners are locked into sub-5% mortgages.
Few are selling.
Buyers can’t afford to buy.
Stalemate.
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New listings data ranged between 30K-80K per week seasonally, 70%-80% of these sellers are buyers, they don't sell and buy with cash. Most buy with mortgages. If you can't get this simple concept, I am no use to you both, and you should unfollow me
Gordon Miller@GMillerMortgage
@KirkChivas @LoganMohtashami Hey at least he is reading me again! Feel free to chime in. You know a ton of folks sub 3 looking to move? I know one and that’s it!
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@GMillerMortgage @LoganMohtashami i don't have any right now. even the soon to be divorce folks are managing to find a way for one of them to hold it
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@KirkChivas @LoganMohtashami Hey at least he is reading me again! Feel free to chime in. You know a ton of folks sub 3 looking to move? I know one and that’s it!
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Again, if you analyze the buyer profile data, there’s no logical way we experienced a mortgage rate lockdown. The largest group of buyers tends to be older; the coupon data consistently showed this as they sold their homes with lower rates.
Mark Woodworth@mark_woodworth
@GMillerMortgage @LoganMohtashami Exactly. The coupon data just shows rate distribution, not how that distribution came to be. It is impossible from this data to delineate between low coupon to high coupon migration (sales / move up) vs low coupons simply amortizing down while new mortgages occurring at market.
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@LoganMohtashami Logan - does this count new construction not listed in MLS?
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The national inventory is on the verge of going negative year over year. States like Florida that have seen a clear year-over-year decline were working from more elevated levels. Context is key, it's not worse than 2008, doom porn is trash, follow real people 🫡
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@LoganMohtashami Sellers with sub 3 aren’t moving .. again. Maybe you have a different definition but I can’t discern anything from this
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From calculators to market data to worksheets, it is all here.
firstcommercefinancial.com/free-tools/
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"I want the best deal!"
If you don't know the difference between par rate vs rate with points, how are you making a comparison?
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@GMillerMortgage @holden_bukowski now we just got to get you on with Logan and Mike!
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@KirkChivas @holden_bukowski We’ve been in one since June. The power of no cost loans
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@holden_bukowski @GMillerMortgage bound to happen in one of these years, right? 😂😉
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Artemis II reports strange patterns on the moon as the NASA crew conducts historic flyby
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Charlotte, NC in trouble
Largest % increase in inventory YoY for the cities I track with populations over 500K (19.17%)
Did they realize that Mecklenburg only added 11.1K households last year?
L=New Home Source
R=Zillow
Remember Zillow only has about 25% of new home listings
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@John_Mitchell4 ditto! feel free to DM me if u need a sounding board. 👊
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@KirkChivas Let’s just say a house is $650k right now in LWR. What do you think it will be in August 28’? Just curious of your guesstimate. Essentially I got family down there and my wife wants to go but I am beyond wary.
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We will get 1 rate hike in 2026 - No cuts
Book it
Jaspreet Singh@MinorityM1ndset
Markets were pricing in multiple Fed rate cuts this year. Now they're down to maybe one. Oil-driven inflation has a way of changing plans.
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@ACumbow ward looks scared. no one is ready to play. predictable
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My heart is just pounding right now lol. I live for this shit. No better feeling than that anxiety in March.
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