Kirk Chivas

@jonbrooks @GMillerMortgage

The U.S. housing market is frozen. Just 2.8% of homes changed hands in the first 9 months of 2025 — the lowest in 30+ years. Why? Over 70% of homeowners are locked into sub-5% mortgages. Few are selling. Buyers can’t afford to buy. Stalemate.

@LoganMohtashami wow

New listings data ranged between 30K-80K per week seasonally, 70%-80% of these sellers are buyers, they don't sell and buy with cash. Most buy with mortgages. If you can't get this simple concept, I am no use to you both, and you should unfollow me

@GMillerMortgage @LoganMohtashami i don't have any right now. even the soon to be divorce folks are managing to find a way for one of them to hold it

@KirkChivas @LoganMohtashami Hey at least he is reading me again! Feel free to chime in. You know a ton of folks sub 3 looking to move? I know one and that’s it!

Again, if you analyze the buyer profile data, there’s no logical way we experienced a mortgage rate lockdown. The largest group of buyers tends to be older; the coupon data consistently showed this as they sold their homes with lower rates.

@LoganMohtashami Logan - does this count new construction not listed in MLS?

The national inventory is on the verge of going negative year over year. States like Florida that have seen a clear year-over-year decline were working from more elevated levels. Context is key, it's not worse than 2008, doom porn is trash, follow real people 🫡

@GMillerMortgage @LoganMohtashami debate time?!

@LoganMohtashami Sellers with sub 3 aren’t moving .. again. Maybe you have a different definition but I can’t discern anything from this

From calculators to market data to worksheets, it is all here. firstcommercefinancial.com/free-tools/

@MortConsumCoach @MLORants

@MLORants Lol. My clients always choose a no cost loan when they refi. Zero cost. Not one penny. I dont choose - they do. They do the simple math and say - “why would anyone pay anything to refinance?”

"I want the best deal!" If you don't know the difference between par rate vs rate with points, how are you making a comparison?

@GMillerMortgage @holden_bukowski now we just got to get you on with Logan and Mike!

@KirkChivas @holden_bukowski We’ve been in one since June. The power of no cost loans

I was told the ten year was going to 4.60. Not so fast

@holden_bukowski @GMillerMortgage bound to happen in one of these years, right? 😂😉

@KirkChivas @GMillerMortgage lol.

@ReleveRE wow!

We’re number 1!

@Daily_MailUS 🤔

Artemis II reports strange patterns on the moon as the NASA crew conducts historic flyby

@m3_melody @RealJohnGaltFla doing the Lakewood Ranch thing

Charlotte, NC in trouble Largest % increase in inventory YoY for the cities I track with populations over 500K (19.17%) Did they realize that Mecklenburg only added 11.1K households last year? L=New Home Source R=Zillow Remember Zillow only has about 25% of new home listings

@John_Mitchell4 ditto! feel free to DM me if u need a sounding board. 👊

@KirkChivas Thanks brother have a great Sunday

@KirkChivas Lakewood Ranch, FL. How long until the market corrects itself? 2 years?

@John_Mitchell4 you could see another 20% decline imo

@KirkChivas Let’s just say a house is $650k right now in LWR. What do you think it will be in August 28’? Just curious of your guesstimate. Essentially I got family down there and my wife wants to go but I am beyond wary.

@1RentalataTime @GMillerMortgage

We will get 1 rate hike in 2026 - No cuts Book it

@ACumbow ward looks scared. no one is ready to play. predictable

My heart is just pounding right now lol. I live for this shit. No better feeling than that anxiety in March.

It's "officially" a short sale now, but that's just kicking the can. I still think Jingle Mail is their best course of action, but you can lead a horse to water...

Seeing a lot of posts about the new home sales miss in January. Remember we had "historic" winter storms in January and the sale of a new home "occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit." I'm more interested in February sales...though any way you slice it the numbers don't look too promising. NAR's February pending home sales were only slightly better than expected despite mortgage rates being at 3.5-year lows. And now with the war and higher mortgage rates, higher gas prices, etc., chances are the housing market will face some heavy headwinds for the rest of spring and beyond.