@Walden_woods Want to understand the story behind CalPERS' returns better - over the last 20 years, their average return was 6.8%. CalSTRS was 7.6%. Both far below the S&P 500 average of 10.4%.
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Maria Davidson
421 posts
Maria Davidson
@MariaDavidson
Love California, working on making it better. Founder @usekojo, angel investor, board @orascomdevelop. Formerly @8vc, @oxfordunion president
San Francisco, CA 가입일 Aralık 2012
481 팔로잉2.3K 팔로워
@MariaDavidson It seems some pretty rational, non extreme fixes for governance are: 1) figure out how to clean house at CalPERS and attract better talent that can at least match S&P returns.
2) don’t engage in insane shenanigans to drive away all the smart capitalists
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California has the highest public pension debt in the US.
It's more than $265 billion. That's over $6k in pension debt for every California resident.
Pension benefits promised to government workers are constitutionally protected so taxpayers are on the hook.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt" "People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union. "$250 billion to $1 trillion short." "This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension." "California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it." How we got here: "California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in. $250 billion to $1 trillion short. If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits. There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits. It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California. So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services." Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)
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@rpyers NASA' permanent moon base will be cheaper to build than connecting communities that feed the nation
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'Connecting communities that feed the nation' is certainly one way to describe an incomplete rail segment that terminates in the walnut orchards outside of Shafter
Governor Newsom Press Office@GovPressOffice
Unlike Trump, California government cares about the Central Valley and connecting communities that feed the nation with 21st century transportation that is fast, easy, and affordable. Just last month, the track laying phase began, and so far this nation-first project has: 👷 Supported 16,400 jobs 💵 Generated $1.3 billion in wages 🚉 Completed 58 mega structures 📈 Added $2.9 billion to the state’s economy
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@friedberg Over the last 20 years, California unfunded pension liabilities have grown 10x. Crazy that people are only waking up to how important this is now
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it’s not political and should
not be partisan to ask “where did all the money go?”
California’s functional bankruptcy threatens the nation and should be a front-and-center state and national discussion.
ignore the bs. this is what matters.
Molly O’Shea@MollySOShea
BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt" "People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union. "$250 billion to $1 trillion short." "This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension." "California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it." How we got here: "California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in. $250 billion to $1 trillion short. If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits. There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits. It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California. So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services." Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)
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@MollySOShea @friedberg Over the last 20 years, CalPERS had an average return of 6.8%, and 7.6%, for CalSTRS. Both far below the S&P 500 average of 10.4%.
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BREAKING: David @friedberg says "California is functionally bankrupt"
"People don't realize how screwed California is, & I worry that if California falls, so does the union.
"$250 billion to $1 trillion short."
"This is because for California to get rescued would be a big cost to red states, & I think it creates in the years ahead a lot of tension."
"California's functional bankruptcy is a major risk to the country. & I think we need to figure out what we can change to fix it."
How we got here:
"California has a public pension system, & that public pension system retirees have paid into it & they get some benefits out, & the amount that they're owed back out is somewhere between $250 billion - $1 trillion dollars more than has been paid in.
$250 billion to $1 trillion short.
If it was the federal government, it would be like, okay, we'll just print more money. California doesn't have the ability to print money, so California has to pay this out, and you can't restructure retirement benefits.
There is a Supreme Court case in California that said that once an employee has been offered retirement benefits, even if they're currently an employee, you can never restructure their retirement benefits.
It has to stay forever, and the state cannot declare bankruptcy. There's no way for the state to functionally declare bankruptcy. There's no law to allow it. No state has ever declared bankruptcy, and the retirement benefits sit senior to the bonds in California.
So you have to pay out the retirement benefits before you pay out all the bond holders that have loaned California the money that they use to run all their programs and services."
Hill & Valley Forum 2026 (@HillValleyForum)
Chamath Palihapitiya@chamath
California will be bankrupt by 2030. If you’re expecting a state pension, it is at risk. If you don’t believe it, check Grok or Gemini and explore how California politicians changed the reporting rules on your pension so they could hide how underwater it is. The middle class citizens of California will soon be asked to pay a huge price to bail out the state. Why them? Because that is where most of the wealth of California resides. It’s easy to single out “billionaires” but there aren’t many of them and they can and will all leave before the bottom falls out. They are leaving in droves already. The mismanagement in California is biblical - and the scale is huge because it’s the world’s 4th largest economy. California politicians and their henchmen are now entering the coverup phase where they can no longer hide their financial incompetence so they are taking from average California residents to try and hide what they’ve done: You will soon see ballot initiatives with fancy tiles like “billionaire tax”. But those are lies. They are mechanisms to tax everything, every way: Excise taxes Wealth taxes Private property confiscation It’s all happening now. If you want to preserve California, you will need to stand up because California has become a kleptocracy.
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@zebulgar @HillValleyForum Beauty lies in the eye of the beholder
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@mariadavidson @HillValleyForum are we talking about big balls or the venue
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Only 47% of Americans consider their fellow citizens as morally good.
In comparison, 92% of Canadians think that.
Underpins so many of the problems we have.
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Current average gas price in California:
$5.76 a gallon for regular
If you have a luxury car that requires premium, you’ll be paying over $6 a gallon
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BREAKING: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez reportedly spent about $19,000 from campaign funds on a psychiatrist.
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@mariadavidson Housing first is the most expensive means of addressing homelessness and the least effective at achieving a reduction in homelessness and treating the root cause. But hey the housing development industry is making lots of cash off of it.
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California has spent $37bn on homelessness since 2019.
That's equivalent to $245k per person based on 2019 homelessness numbers.
Since then, homelessness has increased by ~20%.
Polymarket@Polymarket
JUST IN: New York City reportedly now spending more per homeless person than the median income of the city.
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@pmarca Werner Herzog, the OG hater of psychoanalysts, said it best: when you illuminate every last corner of a house, the house becomes uninhabitable youtu.be/G_7Ta_4coy4
YouTube
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My big conclusion from this week:
Introspection causes emotional disorders.
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@unusual_whales Wish this was true in SF but new listings numbers are flat
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Home sellers now exceed buyers by over 600,000, marking the widest gap on record, per Redfin.
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@CortesSteve California spending per capita grew 54% in the last 10 years adjusted for inflation. We have a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
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Massive public spending while the quality of life declines markedly...in the formerly glorious state of California!
This chart shows that Gavin Newsome can never be president!
Maria Davidson@MariaDavidson
In 2016, California ran a $1bn surplus. In 2026, it'll be a $26bn deficit. All while California GDP grew by 50%.
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When it comes to housing in California - steepen the curve!
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@RealXBailey @christopherrufo And the Sears tower in 3 years
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The Wallis Annenberg Wildlife Crossing, if completed on time, will take longer to build than the Golden Gate Bridge which was built in the 1930s
Christopher F. Rufo ⚔️@christopherrufo
EXCLUSIVE: Gavin Newsom promised to build a bridge for cougars and butterflies in the middle of Los Angeles. The project has turned into another boondoggle, with broken deadlines and costs exploding to $114 million. This is Newsom's bridge to nowhere. city-journal.org/article/califo…
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@californiapost If it's completed on time, it will take longer to build than the Golden Gate Bridge took in the 1930s
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California's priciest bridge is in SoCal and costs $114M - but it's not for cars trib.al/b8RzUSK
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