The Merge 🇺🇲

Your read-in for military tech, trends, and happenings. themerge.co

I have published an update to the P-8A Poseidon diagram to include new label sections and improvements on existing labels. Full-resolution link in the reply below. Thank you to @SR_Planespotter & @potettan620 for providing me photos to use for this diagram.

“We’re not in full-rate production. So, we shipped what we had” to U.S. Central Command, Pentagon CTO Emil Michael told DefenseScoop. scoopmedia.co/41dthfA

Iran, oil, and the signal to China.

@robertgraham The bigger issue is this themerge.co/p/oil-pressure

In March of 2022, in response to the Ukraine War causing oil prices to spike above $100/barrels, Biden released 180 million barrels over 6 months from the SPR. This was 8 months before the midterms. In March of 2026, in response to the Iran War causing oil prices to spike above $100/barrel, Trump is releasing 172 million barrels from the SPR over 5 months. This is 8 months before the midterms.

What's going on with Iran, oil, and the Middle East? This week we touched on a few things you haven't heard. themerge.co/p/oil-pressure

I am the Undersecretary of Operational Definitions at the Department of Defense. This week I wrote the following sentence for the Secretary to read at the podium: "The only thing prohibiting transit in the Straits right now is Iran shooting at shipping. It is open for transit should Iran not do that." I should explain how this works. The Strait of Hormuz is 21 miles wide. Twenty percent of the world's traded oil passes through it. It contains water. Ships travel through water. Therefore, the strait is open. The missiles are not a property of the Strait. The missiles are a property of Iran. These are two separate facts. We have addressed one of them. Tanker traffic through the strait has dropped from 50 vessels per day to nearly zero. Insurance premiums have risen 500 percent. A supertanker that cost $100,000 to insure six weeks ago now costs $400,000. The International Energy Agency calls this the largest supply disruption in oil market history. Brent crude has crossed $100 a barrel. Gas is $3.60 nationally, up from $2.30 one month ago. In California, it is $5.37. You are paying $3.60 a gallon for a Strait I have defined as open. It is open for transit, should Iran not do that. I have held this position for 23 years. I have served under four Secretaries, three administrations, and two wars that were not called wars at the time I was defining them. My office is in the E Ring of the Pentagon. It does not have a window. The definitions do not require a view. In 1967, my office wrote the definition of progress. Progress was measured by the number of enemy combatants killed. By that definition, we were making extraordinary progress in Vietnam. Fifty-eight thousand Americans died in a war we were winning the entire time. In 2003, we wrote the definition of mission accomplished. The mission was the end of major combat operations. Major combat operations were defined as the operations we had completed. The operations we had not completed were reclassified. The mission was accomplished. The war continued for eight more years. In 2026, we wrote the definition of open. Open means the water is there, and the land is not blocking it. By that definition, the strait has been open for four million years. The airspace over Tehran is available for civilian aircraft, should the missiles not be in it. The Persian Gulf is navigable, should the sea mines not be in it. The region is stable, if the war were not happening in it. Thirteen American service members have died. The first week cost $11.3 billion. 3.2 million people have been displaced in Iran. 800,000 in Lebanon. The briefing I wrote outlined what Iran lacks. No air defenses. No air force. No navy. It did not list the thing Iran does have: the ability to close a strait I have defined as open. I do not define any of these as things to worry about. Worry is not an operational term. It has never appeared in a definition I have written. It is open for transit, should Iran not do that. Every institution has an Undersecretary of Operational Definitions. Most do not know it. Some call the position Communications Director. Some call it Government Affairs. Some call it Investor Relations. The title changes. The function is the same. Define the situation until the situation matches the definition. If the situation does not match, redefine the situation. The economy is growing, but the contraction should not be measured in it. The border is secure, and the crossings should not be counted in it. The healthcare system is working, but the denials should not be included in it. The job market is strong, so the jobs should not be in it. I redefined progress in a war we lost. I redefined accomplishment in a mission that lasted a decade. I am redefining open in a strait no ship will enter. Your groceries will reflect this. Your prescriptions will reflect this. The Strait is open. It is reflected in everything except the ships that are not transiting it. The pool is available for swimming, should the shark not be in it. The building is available for occupancy, should the fire not be in it. It is open for transit, should Iran not do that.

TBM takedown sizzle reel to start the weekend

Multiple plane spotters filmed and photographed a KC-135 Stratotanker and several other aircraft supporting a test refueling flight by a B-21 Raider today over Eastern California. The flight lasted roughly five hours, as testing accelerates for the B-21, with the next-generation long-range stealth strategic bomber expected to enter service next year with the U.S. Air Force.

I don't know who needs to hear this (well, actually I do) but the Defense Dept spending money on shellfish, ice cream, and steak for servicemembers at war, many of whom have been at sea for a long time already, is not a scandal. This is just basic taking care of the troops.

DIU Director Owen West and Chief Operating Officer Travis Metz were on Capitol Hill last week, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee on the state of the @DeptofWar's ambitious Drone Dominance Program (DDP). They spoke alongside MG Steven Marks, Director of the Defense Autonomous Warfare Group. “Drones are the most significant battlefield innovation in generations,” West said. “Seeing this change several years ago, our adversaries today produced these systems by the millions at low costs. For too long, the U.S. was hindered by self-imposed restrictions and bureaucratic red tape while our adversaries surged ahead.” This era of hesitation is over. The DDP combines a clear demand signal to industry—$1.1 billion over the next 18 months—with four open competitions judged by military experts. The Department seeks to buy 200,000 drones by January 2028 that can dominate in the toughest battlefield environments. Phase 1 - the Gauntlet - is already complete. View the full hearing (remarks begin at 00:16:17): armed-services.senate.gov/hearings/to-re… Learn more about the Drone Dominance Program here: drone-dominance.io

I was today years old when I learned that the Pentagon Channel (RIP) interviewed Gwar in 2011 (also RIP Oderus Urungus): dvidshub.net/video/154141/c…

As of the morning of 6 March 2026, almost 150 hours into the conflict, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have confirmed over 2,150 interceptions of Iranian uninhabited aerial vehicles (UAVs), missiles, and even fighter jets. About a quarter of those are Iranian ballistic missiles, and almost all the rest were UAVs. Less than 20 cruise missiles were detected and intercepted. Read Albert Vidal Ribe and Jasim Murad’s full breakdown of interception rates across GCC states. bit.ly/3P72aQB

Read more: darpa.mil/news/2026/darp…

Epic Fury, drone dominance, and balls to the wall... 👇 themerge.co/p/epic-fury

Iranian Attacks On Critical Missile Defense Radars Are A Wake-Up Call Iran's successful targeting of prized missile defense radars in the Middle East highlights global vulnerabilities. Feature: twz.com/news-features/…

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@DefenseDaily At the old Callahan Auto Parts factory?

USAF May Reopen Hypersonic Test Facility In Sandusky, Ohio - Defense Daily defensedaily.com/usaf-may-reope…

Wild

In a historic first, long-range Precision Strike Missiles (PrSMs) were used in combat during Operation Epic Fury, providing an unrivaled deep strike capability. “I just could not be prouder of our men and women in uniform leveraging innovation to create dilemmas for the enemy.” – Adm. Brad Cooper, CENTCOM Commander