This is my third Bitcoin cycle. And I'm already having flashbacks to last cycle. One thing is certain: The emotions really do repeat. If you're just getting into Bitcoin, you should know that people have always worried they were too late. People who bought at $20K last cycle worried they might be exit liquidity for early hodlers. But if they held to today, they'd be up 350%. Vastly outperforming 99.9% of investors. There's never been a bad time to buy spot Bitcoin and hold it for 5+ years. So if that's your plan, you're doing it right. However, there have been many times where it was a terrible idea to get overly bullish. Bitcoin is volatile. Both ways. So be careful with expressing overconfidence via leveraged bets. One thing you see every cycle is people thinking they are late to Bitcoin and that they need to make up for lost time by using leverage. Or by putting their money in "alts" that they assume will outperform Bitcoin. Most of those people end up completely rekt. Financially, emotionally, and spiritually. The best balance between risk and reward has always been just patiently chilling in spot (ideally cold-stored) BTC. Another thing I'm seeing is renewed calls for a "supercycle." This is not new. In the depths of the bear market in 2022, I remember thinking that no one would ever believe in super-cycles again... But many of the same people that were wrong about a super-cycle in 2021 are once again calling for it today. Will we reprice significantly higher if the US adopts BTC as a reserve asset? Absolutely. There's no law that says we need to have violent drawdowns like we have in the past. And a perma-bid from the US Government and MicroStrategy could certainly limit the downside. But its exactly this line of thinking that leads people to get max bullish and do stupid things with leverage. Last cycle it was FTX, 3AC, etc. They destroyed us and we went lower than anyone expected. I didn't sell a single Sat at the top in 2021. In fact, I stacked all the way down after selling a business. But Bitcoin went far lower than I expected. If I had been levered up or had a poor cash position I would have been forced to sell Bitcoin at the bottom. Many were forced to do exactly that. So what's the takeaway? Don't get carried away with calls of a super-cycle. Instead, focus on how your BTC stack can help you build a better life for you and your family. If you're in stack-only mode for now, don't get greedy. Keep your head down and stack spot with a long time horizon. Consistently stacking an asset with ~50% CAGR will get you where want to go. Don't buy into the giga-bull narratives because if they don't come true, you will be severely disappointed and discouraged. Stay sober. Stay positive. Expect volatility. And if your stack reaches a valuation that could allow you to significantly improve your family's life... Don't be afraid to turn part of your stack into real world wealth. Health, free time, memories with family, a nicer place to live during your limited time on earth... At a certain point these things become far more valuable than the incremental Sat. One last piece of advice though: I would strongly recommend renting whatever it is you think you want. Many people sell BTC to buy a house. But theres a massive opportunity cost of putting that cash towards a downpayment instead of keeping it in BTC long-term. BTC is so much better than a home as a store of value. This desire to own a home is largely a cultural hangover from a time before BTC and AirBnB. You can rent a beautiful home anywhere in the world now. Let the homeowners handle all the insurance, maintenance, property taxes, mortgage expense, etc. You enjoy renting the home while vastly outperforming it by holding the best store of value asset in the world. I leave you with my favorite investing quote which comes from East of Eden: โDuring the dry years, the people forgot about the rich years, and when the wet years returned, they lost all memory of the dry years. It was always that way.โ - John Steinbeck
