Muso

So, new/old Twitter account. I've learned a lot over the last few years and made some grave mistakes. I'll write where I started later, but here is where I am right now:

@ParrotStock Congrats!!! Hope you get back to 1 m+ soon!

A little more green today, finally broke $700k again 👍 Trimmed 1/3 of my $SOFI leaps, taking some profit (+250%) and building cash $LMND $SOFI $TTD $SE $DIS $META $AMZN and $CRWD were the laggards Hope y’all had great days! ❤️😊

@jfsrevg Ah yes, makes sense. I was overcomplicating it. Thanks a lot! Will calculate that, might be the main missing piece for me... Thanks! 👍

@MusoMoon you calculate RRR based on nett realized gain (loss) / risk undertaken. nett realized gain (loss) would account for all the situation u highlighted

YTD WIn Rate 24.8%, (Lowest in my 15 years) YTD Performance: +49% realized (+54.5% unrealized) Over a month ago, I posted a poll asking whether, with a win rate below 40%, it would be more effective and lead to greater improvement to focus on adjusting your winning trades or your losing trades. The results leaned toward losing trades, and I agree—if you've accepted that your strategy has a win rate under 40%, the priority should be addressing your losing trades. I have one of my lowest annual (YTD) win rate % in my 15 years but I definitely felt I have improved so much more significantly. You can't control the outcome, but you can control your sizing, your risk, your loss. If you're struggling to gain traction in your trading, I recommend building an RRR (Risk-Reward Ratio) histogram graph on per trade basis. This will help you analyze how well your losses are controlled from a broader perspective, rather than focusing on the disappointment of your equity curve which does not present you any perspective to improve. Total Trades: 371 (Max Month: 64, Min Month: 29) Trade Type: 64% ETF (Leveraged, Non-leveraged & Inverse), 36% Equities (Mostly long including inverse mega $GGLS and $TSLQ, less than 4 parabolic short) Win Rate: 24.8% (Max Month: 31.6%, Min Month: 14.5%) Avg R Gain: 3.7 (Max Month: 6.4, Min Month: 1.4) Avg R Loss: 0.78 (Max Month: 0.89, Min Month: 0.69) Avg R Gain/Loss: 4.7 (Max Month: 7.26, Min Month: 1.61) Consecutive Winning Months: 4 (May to August) Consecutive Losing Months: 2 (Mar to Apr) Biggest Winning Month: February (+18.8%, Win Rate: 25%) Biggest Losing Month: (-7.6%, Win Rate: 14.5%) Biggest Winner: 7th February $GBTC 53R. (I attempted 26/1 and 7/2 on full losses) Biggest Loser: $GLD -3.92R (executed 6/6, gap down open 7/6) Avg Holding Days (Winners): 15 Days (Max Month: 22.4, Min Month: 9.6) Avg Holding Days (Losers): 2 Days (Max Month: 4.3, Min Month: 1.2) Longest Consecutive Losing Trades: 17 8th March to 15th March (Min Month: 5) Longest Consecutive Winning Trades: 4 A few key takeaways I hope you can learn from. 1. Trading is not easy because you are on drawdown and facing consecutive losing streaks most of the time. You face bad days more than good days, this is a fact and you need to accept it. My longest consecutive losing streak of 17 in 6 trading days is not easy to stomach for someone without risk management and emotional control. 2. Don’t fixate on the performance of your last 10 trades, the performance this week or this month —focus on the performance of your last 500 trades. Embrace the big picture, the law of large numbers, and a long-term perspective in trading. 3. Be highly selective to reduce subpar trade frequency and improve the quality of both trade selection and execution. At times I favor high ADR% stock not because they move fast, but because they may give you the tightest entry based on LoD to ATR and it could just explode to 5-6R winner in a single day when it trades to its mean ADR%, its implied volatility. It's about quality of entry opportunity much more than selection quality alot of times. 4. I won’t be a profitable trader without RVOL-based entries. This year there's alot of false breakout, false gap up movers. I have big winners in $KOSS and $MGOL because they open as much as +1000% Rvol and trades to +4500% in under 15mins. Volume are strong clues for trading breakouts in equities and intraday follow through. 5. High-quality entries is way more important than stock selection imho. I can bet you not many swing traders can profit from high quality IPO names trading at ATH $CAVA $BTSG $NU until you can get a quality entry eg. $CAVA 9th August high rvol below 60% LoD. 5. Learn to size down losses before your trade hit the eventual stops. I spoke alot about selling partial in sequential manner of 33% size out from 33% below entry, and further 33% size out from 33% to stop loss. I can control my average losses within 0.8R because of this even with slippages and spread. This is a metrics anyone can improve and I largely focus to improve on. 6. Learn to hold trades if it is working. I am still holding $XLU and $SCHH with 70 days calendar days holding period. Non-leveraged ETFs may be slow on ADR% perspective, but they present the best trend to 10/20-MA without overshoots as much as equities. This 2 are +25R trades. 7. Don't kick yourself for missing major trade of the year that are being hyped up on social media eg. $SMCI or $ASTS. I did not even capture that. Trading becomes challenging if you let daily price action affect you emotionally. However, it becomes more manageable and straightforward when you focus on the bigger picture, address your weaknesses and learn to improve them on MoM basis. You need to give yourself time and avoid the mentality that you can rush towards success.

@SRxTrades The amg looks more special, more interesting. v8 vs v6. If in doubt go with porsche. Merc only if you love(!!) the design. Also look into old SLS, especially final editions. They're super special, maybe not for a first super car. 😉 👋 from Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany

@SRxTrades Service the car... Porsches here are on a two year interval, mercs every year. And each one is more expensive... The porsche is way smaller and much easier to navigate especially on small mountain roads. To sum up: the porsche is more common, more practical and easier to use...

Stuck between 3 cars not sure what to get Looking at the : -911 Turbo s -R8 -GT 62 Any suggestions or thoughts?

@buccocapital Just to distract from Google search default and 30% app store tax, mostly games for kids. It's a Marketing expense as @stratechery called it.

If I was an Apple shareholder I would be really concerned How can they continue to grow services revenue if they think this is the 59th greatest album ever made? Deeply unserious. Think you can short Apple here

@StocksGarden @1charts6 Check ema calc using close, open, high or low

@1charts6 Hey Oliver, Im using Trading View and my 10 and 20emas are total in different places, any idea why?

Certainly lumps as we go...AFRM gap n crap spun me around (not shock me if these work if rates come off), was wrong on COIN so far....but consistently been able to get opps that have allowed me to get my stop to cost and my core stuff continues to trend higher. UBER today. Get one trade working per day, get stop to cost, then see if works next couple days/weeks if rides 10/20EMA all trying to do....@TheSwingReport

@trengriffin You might want to try @OvercastFM

I recommend podcasts more to others when there's a transcript. I tend to listen in my car. What I like to do is send snippets to people later. Transcripts enable that. It is one way of saying: "I've been thinking about you." A small sample of what I've been listening to lately.

@DavidCoxRJ Sorry, can't dm, thanks elon. 🤷‍♂️ maybe just the product name. Appreciate the help!

@MusoMoon i found one on amazon and admit being pretty impressed with it... DM me and i'll give you the link if you're interested...

some will say it's overly luxurious, but i have to say it's a really comfortable home office set up... (the top row is an early Christmas present to myself)

@FranVezz Just curious, why are you raising stops and selling partials? Wouldn't raising stops be sufficient? Or is that a risk mitigation against a bigger drop (under the stop)? Anything I'm missing?

$NQ (long) Still pushing higher. "Don't pick tops, raise stops" is a critically important concept. You never know how far a trend will go. Sell a piece into strength, raise your stop as you go, and enjoy the ride. smartstocksnewsletter.substack.com

@DavidCoxRJ would also argue ENPH, 21ema crossing back up, but zooming out it's still under 200sma and no base what so ever. Fully agree to keeping an eye on them. all are in my weekly rotation

4 solar charts to yesterday... we all know this has been a very ugly space, but i like to keep watch (of even the ugly spots!) cause when it changes, knowing who the relative strength leader is/was is important information... $ENPH $FSLR $SEDG $JKS one of these looks best...

Lots of names breaking out and running. Like $EXPI, $UPST even $NVDA Thinking to apply an old 2020 tactic: buy breakout and sell into strength max 2-3 day holding $CELH $MDB $CFLT $MRVL $RMBS $AMD $ARLO $IOT $AAPL $ZS $NFLX

$RIVN missed that, took a little pos just to track, so much strong vol going through 200sma, waiting for a base and then should go further $PANW also a smal position, yday sell of was overdone imo, so just a quick bounce play

$NIO missed the 200sma break through, not sure if it will retest or go further $NNOX no vol whatsoever, waiting for it to explode, right at 21ema, vwap from gap, but also overhead vol quite massiv $LMND had 3 good days from 200sma bounce, looking like an inside day today

My current holdings in trading account & thoughts: $META: just does its thing, going, and will brace for the media coverage of what a genius Marc is in the coming weeks, set generous trailing stop and will let it run $TSLA: strong stock, has been the leader, basing currently