InvestwithNav

🚨 The AI hardware market is playing a massive game of chess right now. Broadcom $AVGO just told Wall Street that the futuristic next step in AI networking is delayed. ⚠️🔥 And yesterday, Nvidia ($NVDA) dropped a $4 billion investment into optical giants $COHR and $LITE. ​Why the massive contradiction? 👇🧵⚠️🔥 ​1️⃣ The Problem: Melting Wires AI chips are getting so fast that pushing data through old-school copper wires is like trying to force a firehose through a straw—it loses signal and creates massive heat. The fix is Photonics: using light (lasers) to move the data. ​Right now, data centers use "pluggable" lasers. The future is CPO (Co-Packaged Optics), which means building the lasers directly into the chip itself. ​2️⃣ Broadcom’s Copper Defense So why did Broadcom’s CEO say CPO is delayed and copper is fine for now?⚠️ Because Broadcom makes a fortune selling the standard traffic switches that use copper. They don't want to cannibalize their own massive cash cow. Pushing off the CPO revolution keeps their current, highly profitable business booming for a few more years.🫡 ​3️⃣ Nvidia’s $4 Billion Power Move🚀 Nvidia cannot afford to wait. They connect tens of thousands of GPUs together to act as one giant supercomputer, and they need the absolute best optical connections today. ​By handing $4 billion to $COHR and $LITE, Nvidia essentially bought out the VIP section. They are funding these factories now so they get first dibs on all the optical parts, leaving their competitors starving for supply. ​4️⃣ The "Anti-Nvidia" Alternative $AAOI Not everyone wants to rely on Nvidia. Mega-buyers like Amazon (AWS) are building their own networks. Since Nvidia just locked up a ton of capacity with $COHR and $LITE, Amazon has to look elsewhere. ​This is exactly why Amazon is heavily backing $AAOI for their optical needs. It turns $AAOI into the ultimate volume play for anyone not named Nvidia. ​5️⃣ Why the "Delay" is Actually a Goldmine🚀🚀 Wall Street heard the word "delay" from Broadcom and panic-sold the photonics sector. But for the actual supply chain—$LITE, $COHR, $AAOI, and the equipment/material makers behind them $BESI, $VECO, $AXTI, $IQE, $AIXA—this is a massive hidden win. ​Since the sci-fi CPO future is pushed back, the tech giants are forced to buy millions more of the current pluggable lasers. These companies get to print cash from their existing assembly lines for years longer than expected, without having to burn billions rushing to invent the next big thing. ​The Bottom Line: Broadcom is protecting its turf, Nvidia is buying a monopoly, and the optical supply chain is setting up to rake in cash for the foreseeable future.🫡

Uh oh!

@Sam_Badawi 🤣

Let’s not panic everyone. He can’t be wrong ALL the time.

Highly likely a green or flat close tomorrow

@KobeissiLetter They are letting us digest the reality of ground invasion?

It's eerily quiet this weekend: For the first time since the Iran War began, President Trump has gone unusually quiet this weekend. No new headlines, more aggressive strikes, and no comment on the bond market situation. With escalation risks rising, the silence is deafening.

Seems like the decision is already made! Now markets might open red, but can turn green by digesting the reality of things are!

Market events for the upcoming week!

Also, we have job numbers, and other macro data coming in this week. My assumption is the data should just be in line or a little bit worse than the estimates Which should actually make ground invasion decision the cause of market decline Once the decision is positive, the market should accept the reality, and move on until the financials are affected for companies In case the bank earnings are not good, because airline earnings will for sure aint be that great, that would be another kicker for market to digest! Overall things could be choppy for a while, but some stocks will mark their bottom soon!

Couple of call outs before the next week kicks off! Things are not looking great, ground invasion will be horrible from disruption perspective, obviously life overall will be affected for people, inflation might creep up more, oil price could still remain elevated! However, in the previous 3 ground invasions, that marked the bottom! Look for yourselves! So we can see a lot of turmoil in the markets in the next 10 days, but that could also be the bottom! Because market doesnt like uncertainty, ground invasion brings in the certainty that this is actually happening #oil #war #US #iran #israel #investing

@mannilotrader @alc2022 @LoriMills4CA42 @grok fact check this

@alc2022 @LoriMills4CA42 A very known surgeon from Dubai has told me that in Saudi Arabia they are using Anktiva for every cancer type. I expect lots of real world data coming soon. And it will be licensed OTC to ad on any cancer treatment and for lymphopenia.

Fact- my husband was given 12 months to live 6 months ago. He has been on ANKTIVA and PDL-1 NK therapy and we are grateful for hope. He has now had 2 normal brain scans. The first scan is before, the second after. Sounds like big Pharma is threatened and if true, shame on the @US_FDA I can’t say what tomorrow holds but my family is one of the fortunate ones. So many want therapy. We have hope.

Crypto is going nowhere folks!

Escalation it seems If Iran retailtes, then it spreads even more

🔥🔥

Always let market digest these studies before selling or buying!

@thephillydegen @aleabitoreddit @GoldenMeth $INTT still looks great, breaking off the top today! Had great earnings as well

@NavroshS @aleabitoreddit @GoldenMeth I pitched him $INTT about a month ago when I figured testing would start to get attention. Up 50% since. He is in AEHR as a testing pick

Feel like Mag7 selloff from $META at $593 to $MSFT at $373… Has gone a bit too far? At this point, risk/reward feels on hyperscaler spend vs. ROI vs. macro climates, feels compelling. And we should see capital rotations back into the American tech sector soon.

@aleabitoreddit @GoldenMeth Any thoughts on $INTT and $COHU? In the same space as $AEHR, but market still not rating them as an AI play yet?

@GoldenMeth IMO $AEHR is a great long here and should hit its inflection point in the next few months like $AAOI. $AMKR better to wait next year since they’re in capex phase and their buildout comes online late 2027 or 2028 if I remember correctly. $FORM was a fan this yr

@aleabitoreddit @455BAG #QLCM also bought photonics oriented alphasemi late last year. And the eventual on device AI can make it catch a bid maybe next year? Thoughts

I'm actually personally pretty bearish on both $ARM and $QLCM. Probably not the best person to ask on $ARM since I did help out RISC-V quite a bit so I'm a little biased. As for Qualcomm... Mediatek is probably better long, especially with their high growth ASIC arm working with $GOOGL.

$ARM announces new AI chip called "AGI CPU" According to Arm, the company "Expects it to add billions in annual revenue". - 136 Neoverse V3 cores, built on $TSM 3nm process - Custom-built for "agentic AI" workloads with OpenAI and $META as lead customers. $AMD and $INTC have recently received a tailwind from enterprise CPU shortage. You might be wondering: Does ARM Solve the Shortage? Architecturally, yes. Physically, no. Main beneficiary is $TSM, but this is a large tailwind for $ARM moving forward as they pivot from licensing.

Finally

Is $OpenAI a partner? Dan: Can’t comment 🤷‍♂️

@aleabitoreddit @McLeary_77 Are you referring to the GaN chokepoint? 🫠

@McLeary_77 Pandora’s box is staying closed unless a venture arm wants to work with me on an idea.

Honestly... I have more trust in Elon with building a foundry like Terafab. Then I do with $INTC with their merchant one? The guy literally made reusable rockets like Starship, the size of small mountains, go vroom vroom into Space. Yes, $TSLA looks overvalued by every conventional metric. But Tesla is not a conventional company and should not be valued as such. The guy knows how to get stuff done (with some delays), it’s more of a matter of time with humanoids or FSD. Need more out-of-the box thinkers like him both in running companies and sharing thoughts on X.

Big pharma: things are about to change!