I'm no P.J.O'Rourke

@PincherMartin8 I saw firsthand what a miserable state rack was in after we invaded overcoming what we destroyed on the way in was nothing compared to what Saddam had done to the country himself. what is going to hold back Iran’s rebuilding not a month air campaign, but 47 years of mismanagement

@NotPJORourke BW, if one of us thinks he already knows the answer to these questions without having to argue on behalf of his position or provide examples that prove it correct, then who is the real hack among us?

Of course Tehran is losing, but will an air war result in regime change? If not, then what does it matter? Most of Iran's conventional capabilities can be quickly rebuilt after the war, other than perhaps its navy - and before this war I didn't know we were that concerned by the Iranian navy.

@PincherMartin8 You said I ran rebuilding through war making capability would be a piece of cake. I think that makes you a hack end of discussion. Goodbye.

Hack? I can cite numerous examples of countries experiencing far worse than what Iran has over the last month without it being more than a short-term obstacle to their productive capabilities after the war. Why don't you cite a few to the contrary? Let's see what you know. Iraq after 1991? Sure, if you have UN authority to monitor, oversee and restrict it - and even then most people thought our monitoring had been a failure, which is why we got Iraq 2003. The key is whether the country destroyed had already demonstrated the ability to ramp up that capacity in the first place - which Iran has. Also, you're missing the important point that this conflict will show Iran that some capabilities are not worth rebuilding in full. Take this silliness about destroying the Iranian Navy. Who cares? It was a nothing navy to begin with. It could harass people in the region, as it occasionally did us, but that's about it. We had nothing to fear from it in a war (as we showed). The navy was built to provide a way to choke off commerce in the Strait of Hormuz. But given that we have destroyed their navy and they are still doing that, did they really need their navy?

@PincherMartin8 I'm dubious of their ability to rebuild it after this campaign ends, assuming it doesn't end with the elimination of this regime. And "A Piece of cake." brands you as a Hack.

You don't seem to understand that if the mullahs built that capacity in the first place, then it is much easier for them to rebuild it. Building it the first time is the hard part. The second time? A piece of cake. In fact, the killing of the older Iranian leaders might be a blessing for the younger generation in getting restarted. More energy, more focus, more willingness to try new directions.

@NavyStrang "Magic BB" is a real thing, you fly that many missions who knows what might happen. In an invinite universe the impossible becomes inevitable.

@NavyStrang We even lost a stealth plane over Bosnia, repeated "milk run" can make you vulnerable. I also doubt the actual story of this "hit", we'll probably never know the truth...

Once out of hundreds if not over a thousand sorties is pretty incredible. The odds will always eventually be in the enemy's favor. Allies lost aircraft almost daily against the Iraqis and weekly vs Serbia.

@PincherMartin8 A new Iran regime needs to rebuild from 47 years of theft by the theocracy. That requires resources, so you don't want to destroy their primary means of producing wealth, unless you've given up on Iran emerging from that. Only THEN do you destroy their Oil production.

Why would you take Trump at his word? I don’t care if you support him or not - his rhetoric on this war has been all over the place. Rebuilding after a war is pretty easy. Look at West Germany after WW2. Germany experienced total war from 1939 to 1945, lost a quarter of its young men, saw its cities obliterated, was occupied and divided (with the Soviet-controlled part divided for nearly half a century), and faced starvation for a while. Ten years later, some indicators showed West German per capita income higher than the UK’s. By the mid-1960s, no one doubted it was higher. You guys are overestimating the impact of a one-month air war on a country as large as one-third the continental US.

@infantrydort The knock on the A-10 isn't that it's obsolete or ineffective or unneeded, but not survivable. That may or may not be true in a future peer-to-peer conflict, but I think I could fly a Piper Cub from Doha to Tehran right now.

Anyone who claims the A10 needs to be retired obviously hasn't been in a ground firefight and needed them. There are few things more depressing than a gun run from any other platform. Don't @ me about obsolescence. Everything is "obsolete" if conditions aren't set.

I'll stand behind all these guys, at the urinal...

@DrEliDavid "Those responsible for sacking the people who have just been sacked, have been sacked" ~ Monty Python and the Holy Grail (1975)

🚨 Breaking: The new head of Basij who replaced the previous head of Basij who was eliminated yesterday, was eliminated today

@mtracey IRGC & Baij leadership. I hope we're dropping pallets of rifles & ammunition too. It's one thing to murder unarmed protesters, quite different when they shoot back, even haphazardly.

Hegseth says today, March 19, will be "the largest strike package yet" of the entire war, just like yesterday, March 18, was also the largest to that point. Trump said on March 14: "We have already destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military capability" So what are they still bombing?

@TheCinesthetic Can't forgive them for making a shit show of the "Weirding Way" like new Dune completely changing Chani's character Arc.

Dune (1984) gets written off, even by Lynch, but the film’s worldbuilding is doing its own thing. Baroque sets, strange textures, and a future that feels alien in a way few sci-fi films even attempt. It’s rough, but there’s nothing else like it.

@PincherMartin8 I take Trump as his word, don't destroy Iran's oil producting capbility because it's oil wealth is going to be needed to rebuild a Free and Democratic Iran (and peace with itself and it's neighbors)

Iran supplies 2% of global oil exports and is within firing range of another 18%. Oil markets are global. Take Iran permanently offline, and we should expect a price spike. Why do you think Trump hasn't already done it? But if you take out those oil production facilities and the regime in Tehran stays in power, it has no reason to cooperate; it will continue finding ways to destroy the rest of the region's oil export capacity. Given enough time and success, that will cause an explosion in prices. This doesn't have to go on forever - just a few months to a year - to have a strong economic and therefore politcal effect. Drones are cheap. Iran can also hide drone production facilities much more easily than missile production facilities. Iran has even deployed drone boats in the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran is using Russia's strategy in Ukraine, it's also holding back on drone attacks in order to have enough drones to overwhelm defenses with a single launch.

@awstar11 I want proof of life for the USN's LCS MCM capability. IF that works if would be the most shocking part of this whole campaign.

Is there any weapon system left that we haven’t brought to this war?

@PincherMartin8 Iran hasn't been selling to anyone but China & at a big discount, taking Iran's production off-line won't significantly reduce world supply & thus market, but it will make Iran a pauper state for a long time, even with help from Putin/CCP.

If the war stops next week, I bet we’ll be talking about Iran's missile production again in two years’ time. You also have to keep in mind what everyone is learning from this war. Drones can do almost everything missiles can do, but they are far cheaper, easier to produce, and offer greater flexibility. The Iranians might conclude they don’t need to restore their full pre-war missile production to remain just as dangerous - and they will be well justified in believing this. As for destroying Iranian oil production, that is a double-edged sword. It permanently raises global oil prices - and yes, Americans will pay those prices too - and it gives us no leverage to prevent the regime from continuing to attack their neighbors’ oil refineries and tankers. Oil prices stay high for the foreseeable future.

@PincherMartin8 youtu.be/wUJccK4lV74?si…

@PincherMartin8 What does "quickly rebuilt" mean? we've destroyed their missle production capabilty so "quickly" might mean years, especially if Russia/China won't give them replacements because IF we don't get regime change our last act will be destroying Iran's oil production capability.

@awstar11 @foster_type I think this is all more innocent key Danish elected official "I know he's NOT going to invade, but if "Someone" did attack Greenland, what would we do?" Dansk leaders...let's game that out for you..

@foster_type Moreover, if the US were to invade Greenland, there is literally no armed response from Denmark, France, or the rest of the NATO militaries that could stop or even significantly slow it. So, resistance would have been pointless and humiliating.

I'm seeing a lot of my friends take this position but I think three things: 1) it's revisionist and an attempt to resolve cognitive dissonance over one of the most inexplicably bad things the administration has ever done. 2) it's a canard to say "the invasion threat wasn't serious, therefore this is a non-issue." The threat was a huge issue whether it was credible or not. 3) Denmark was absolutely right to take it seriously regardless, and their moves to that effect helped force the administration to back down, not out of fear of losing an armed confrontation, but by forcing key contingents who were quietly tolerating Trump's antics to get serious about pushing back

@ImtiazMadmood to quote Beth Harmon's comment to Harry Beltik, "are we going to play this out on the board?"

CHECKMATE IRAN Even when checkmate still lies 10–20 moves ahead, any master or serious student of the game can already see the end written in the pieces; The trap is closed. Every escape route has vanished; They concede. It is long past time for Iran to concede a match it never had any chance of winning. Yet as a death cult that mistakes suicidal defiance for courage, it will reject surrender and lurch forward into its final, total humiliation; cut to absolute smithereens until nothing remains but dust and the echo of its own stupidity. Iran today is a terminal patient on life support, gasping its last ragged breaths while the United States literally stands on its oxygen line. Seizing Kharg Island would deliver the fatal strike that finishes what remains of the regime. At this point we can scarcely even call it a regime. Virtually all first-, second-, and even third-tier clerical and IRGC leadership has been exterminated. The few still breathing like the Foreign Minister, the President, and the rest survive only at the mercy and according to the plans of the US and Israel. Kharg Island is Iran’s oil jugular. Roughly 90 percent of the country’s entire crude exports flow through its terminals; pipelines from the giant southern fields converge there, feeding supertankers that load directly offshore. These oil sales are the Islamic Republic’s main source of hard currency; the lifeblood that funds the IRGC, its patronage networks, and its proxy wars. The economy was already strangled by sanctions when this began, its currency had cratered long ago, and the ongoing conflict has closed the Strait of Hormuz to most shipping due to insurance risks. Conveniently, this closure does not affect US oil. Capturing Kharg Island would be the ultimate prize, the strategic equivalent of seizing Aladdin’s genie lamp. I have no doubt that China, sensing the inevitability of collapse and Trump’s iron resolve, is frantically working right now to ensure the regime falls before the United States destroys the oil export infrastructure. Mark my words, Beijing will strike a deal with Washington and throw the Ayatollahs under the bus without hesitation. IRSG sufficiently weakened, a people’s uprising would soon topple whatever is left, without any outside boots on ground. The dark night of 47 years is about to see the light of liberty. It’s about time to congratulate the Iranian people. This Nowruz will be a new dawn on the civilisational history of Iran. - Khalid Umar @ukilaw

@LangmanVince National GOPers have a case to make for a more reliable vote from KY, PA is a true swing state so Dems should cut Fetterman some slack. GOPers should also give Susan Collins a free pass to do whatever she likes. Can't reasonably expect more from Maine. Now Alaska...

Would you be willing to trade Rand Paul for John Fetterman?

@DaleStarkA10 Outdated, maybe. Survivability was the big hit against the A-10 vs F-35, but I think I could fly from Doha to Tehran in a Piper Cub today.

Shocked, I tell you. I was reliably informed by the Lockheed funded military bloggers that the A-10 was outdated and irrelevant in modern warfare.