Novacula Occami

@BitcoinJuicy Yep. @saylor has issued about 9x more $MSTR common that STRC. MSTR still trades at a discount to its BTC. If you love BTC, own it. Not MSTR

We need an update @OccamiCrypto. Is it still underwhelming?

Binance and Tron and Tether and Iran…….oh my!

Bad historic analogy. Stablecoins are network businesses, which is why USDT and USDC dominate. Every new stablecoin that has launched has gained virtually no traction. The Tether bulls thought USAT would be a fully fungible on-shore work around for Tether’s refusal to be US-compliant. But Tether is clearly not actively supporting it. They could have minted billions on their own just to give it a market cap boost - but Paolo and team have done zip. And there’s simply zero reason to use an onshore USAT and that’s not going to change with the passage of time.

@preTrillionaire @OccamiCrypto Boss. Can I have $10 to get a meal🙏?

Tether’s onshore USAT launched in late January and did an initial mint of $20M, and since then they have minted zero new USAT. Nobody is using it. Daily volume was an embarrassing $6M yesterday and that was despite USAT having launched on Bitfinex, Kraken, Moonpay, HTX, MEXC, BTSE, Token Pocket, Coin98, Bidget Wallet, Liquid, Hold Station, IMtoken, Rumble Wallet, Alchemy Pay, AEON, Bitqik, Mercado Bitcoin, Coins.ph, FoxBit, PDAX, Recurrent, Poloniex and Biconomy. All the distribution in the world doesn’t make a shitty little stablecoin something other than a shitty little stablecoin. #USAT

Uh? STRC is a B- rated pref issued by a company that can only fund the dividend by issuing more common. Even with the first weekly sale of any size in STRC, it’s still tiny relative to what @saylor used to issue. And MSTR continues to underperform BTC and it trades at a discount to BTC. If you love BTC, own it. Don’t waste your time with MSTR or STRC.

@OccamiCrypto If history is any indication, you complaining about low volume on something means it's just a week or two away from high volume Weird how you just... stopped talking about STRC

@UpwardFrood @saylor Price is irrelevant. Issuance is what matters as @saylor needs pref leverage to replace the converts. Yet pref investors don’t like what MSTR is selling……it’s not about anything I say. Just watch the volume of STRC sales..

@OccamiCrypto @saylor Have you been paying attention this week (2 weeks out from ex dividend btw)

Another Monday check in on $MSTR and its “digital credit solution”…… $STRC. (Hint, it ain’t credit) Another underwhelming week. Only $7.1M of $STRC sold. So @saylor falls back on issuing $230M of common. 7 months since launching the $4.2B STRC ATM, 84% remains unsold.

@UpwardFrood @saylor Sure, it’s just the facts. STRC gets a lot of tweets from the faithful, but it ain’t selling despite the eye watering yield.

@OccamiCrypto @saylor So like are you sticking to your guns on this or

Crypto journalism can be so dumb. Tether didn’t tap Deloitte for the attestation for “rounding error” USAT stablecoin. Anchorage did. “Tether” is nowhere on the USAT attestation, only Anchorage who is the issuer. Tether is just the name on the coin.

$STRC is junk rated (S&P ‘B-“) pref equity risk. So it’s worse that junk debt as it sits below all debt in the credit stack. $MSTR has negative operating cash flow, so it can only fund the dividends payable on its pref by issuing common shares. Pref investors don’t like risk like this, which is why $STRC isn’t selling at the pace @saylor clearly expected when he set up the $4.2B ATM

@OccamiCrypto @saylor STRC will eventually end up as an allocation in many professional RIA fixed income allocations. The present risk adjusted yield relative to Treasuries and even junk corporate debt is absolutely incredible.

@GoddessDefi Sorry. That’s bull shit. USDC is onshore in the US and regulated. They always respond to court orders, law enforcement requests and OFAC sanctions. Tether viewed all of those as optional until Dec ‘24

you should know that it's almost impossible to quickly get in touch with the USDC team (Circle) to request a freeze of assets targeted by hackers. That's simply why there are hardly any frozen USDC assets out there. There's basically no direct contact or fast channel to obtain a freeze, whereas with USDT (Tether), it's possible to get it done in just a few minutes.

Tether has frozen $4.2B of USDT at the request of authorities I just checked for comparison how much USDC has likewise been frozen: $117 million. 36x more USDT has been frozen than USDC. Tether clearly is the leading stablecoin for illicit finance by a wide margin. No wonder they don’t want to go legit and get regulated.

@stansilver2024 Under the El Salvador digital regulations, they are supposed to provide the Salvadoran regulator audited financials by June. I’m not holding my breath

@OccamiCrypto Still no formal audit from Tether?

And herein lies the difference in perception. These are traditional preferred equity instruments, not credit. They have a residual claim on any assets but they are behind everyone other than the common holders. That’s why pref investors have always sought safe, cash generative issuers (big banks, utilities). Yet MSTR has negative cash flow and can only fund the pref dividends by issuing more common. That’s a high risk offering of a product that historically is sold to risk adverse yield investors. That’s why STRC simply isn’t selling the the size the @saylor clearly hoped for (you don’t set up a $4.2B ATM for STRC and still have 85% of it unsold 6 months later). I don’t know why the MSTR faithful go nuts over this issue. STRC is a pref equity. By definition that’s equity risk. Not credit.

That doesnt comport with the prospectus though. Since their single largest asset is their Bitcoin what do you think this means? To me it means not only is it collateralized by the BTC stack but the software business and every other asset they own. This would embolden the instrument not weaken it (Risk Factors, page SA-8): "If we liquidate, dissolve or wind up, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, then our assets will be available to distribute to our equity holders, including holders of the STRC Stock, only if all of our then outstanding indebtedness is first paid in full. The remaining assets, if any, would then be allocated among the holders of our equity securities in accordance with their respective liquidation rights. Since our STRF Stock is liquidation senior stock, we would be required to pay the amounts due on our STRF Stock in full before making any payments on the STRC Stock."

Memo to @saylor and the $MSTR faithful….this is what a digital credit instrument looks like (and it was just issued) ledn.io/post/ledn-abs

Strategy Prefs are not credit. it’s that simple. They are traditional preferred equity instruments that are utterly uncollateralized. They simply have a preferred equity claim on and residual assets (so above common holders and below everyone else). It’s not a credit instrument. It’s an equity instrument.

@chcbearsfan @OccamiCrypto @saylor Yeah. He's not even saying it's better. Hes saying that Strategy's prefs aren't what Digital credit instruments should look like. A bit odd.

@ibenaija @taninvest @JesseKobernick @grok B- is the Strategy issuer rating so covers its converts and prefs spglobal.com/ratings/en/reg…

@OccamiCrypto @taninvest @JesseKobernick @grok trust but verify this assertion

Minor fact check, while Saylor could create a digital credit instrument, he has yet to do so. All he’s done is try to spin to his faithful that $STRC prefs are “digital credit” They’re not. they’re straight up unsecured pref-equity with zero claim on any Strategy asset. If @saylor wants to push digital credit, he could start by actually creating a digital credit instrument and not just bull shitting about one

@taninvest @JesseKobernick Actually. The are rated junk. B- from S&P. 6 notches below investment grade 🤪

@JesseKobernick @OccamiCrypto The $MSTR prefereds are unrated junk

@BrettMark911 I’ll let Strategy show you…..

@OccamiCrypto Show us!!! Or shut the FUCK UP!!

@WellspringGP The Company’s preferred securities (STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK, STRD) are not collateralized by the Company’s bitcoin holdings and only have a preferred claim on the residual assets of the company.

@OccamiCrypto + Zero contractual right to dividends or repayment / liquidity for the principal by the company

Well, then there’s Strategy’s own language “The Company’s preferred securities (STRF, STRC, STRE, STRK, STRD) ARE NOT COLLATERALIZED by the Company’s bitcoin holdings and only have a preferred claim on the residual assets of the company.” That’s not me saying that. It’s Strategy

@JesseKobernick @OccamiCrypto $MSTR Digital Credit = “Pref Equity Hybrid with Credit like expectations, backed by a collateral base in the form of Bitcoin, a digital capital asset.”