Quentin G.

U.S. oil exports just hit ~12.7M bpd, flirting with net exporter status for the first time since World War II. As flows through the Strait of Hormuz get riskier, two systems are emerging: • Transparent, insured U.S. barrels • Opaque “shadow fleet” barrels moving Iranian crude The bigger the disruption, the more that second system scales. The Iran war isn’t just boosting U.S. dominance, it’s quietly expanding a parallel oil market that’s harder to track, insure, and control.

@Megatron_ron Thanks to their shadow fleet?

NEW: 🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran has exported 9 million barrels of crude oil from the Gulf of Oman since the U.S. blockade, and another 2 million barrels departed three days ago – TankerTrackers

@GlobalMktObserv The Iran war is accelerating a transition where the U.S. becomes the world’s de facto backup oil supplier.

⚠️The US has NEVER exported more oil: Combined US crude oil and refined product exports rose to a RECORD 12.7 million barrels per day last week, according to the US Energy Information Administration. Crude oil exports alone exceeded 5 million barrels per day, also an all-time high. This comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed ~10-13 million barrels per day of Gulf supply from global markets, forcing energy-importing nations to turn to the US as the supplier of last resort. Since 2015, US oil and refined product exports have risen from ~1 million barrels per day to over 12.7 million barrels per day, a nearly 13 TIMES increase. Total exports are expected to exceed 13 million barrels per day in the coming weeks as global demand for US supply continues to surge.

@APompliano The Iran war is accelerating a transition where the U.S. becomes the world’s de facto backup oil supplier.

The United States is exporting record high levels of oil. 🇺🇸

@jackprandelli The Iran war is accelerating a transition where the U.S. becomes the world’s de facto backup oil supplier.

Look at that map. Every red arrow is a tanker. All converging on The Gulf of America. This is the world rerouting in real time. 🚢 167 crude tankers declared US destinations 🛢️ 103 empty vessels steaming to load American crude ⛽ US exports already at record 12.7M b/d 📈 Heading to 15M b/d and climbing From 1995 to 2015 the US couldn't legally export crude. In 2026 it's about to become the world's largest oil exporter. Hormuz closed. Qatar gone. Saudi output cut. Russia back to sanctions... And every tanker on this map already knew where to go. Do not miss my latest article to understand what come next: themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/the-iran-war…

🚨 Fertilizer prices +87% YTD, now above $720/tonne. That’s your grocery bill. Fertilizer = natural gas + oil logistics. Iran war is pushing both higher. Farmers pay more → yields drop → food prices rise. This isn’t immediate. It hits in waves. Energy → fertilizer → food. Translation: the Iran war is quietly becoming a cost-of-living crisis.

The IEA just called it the “largest supply shock ever.” That’s not the story. They quietly flipped 2026 from surplus → razor-thin balance… and baked in weaker demand going forward. That’s a structural shift. Here’s the loop most people are missing: Higher prices → demand destruction (Asia slowdown, fuel switching) ↓ Lower buffers → future disruptions hit harder ↓ More volatility → repeat Chokepoints + sanctions aren’t temporary anymore. They’re now part of the baseline. Translation: this isn’t a spike. It’s a regime change. US LNG and exporters win structurally. Everyone else inherits permanent instability. Are markets still pricing this like a cycle?

Everyone thinks Iran found a workaround. It didn’t, it exposed the breaking point. Shifting to “alternative ports” means longer routes, weaker insurance, higher costs… and far more visibility. Every workaround feeds the tracking system hunting it. With the US Treasury tightening waivers and tankers already being watched in real time, this isn’t adaptation—it’s a feedback loop. Each “successful” shipment makes the next one harder. The shadow fleet isn’t evolving. It’s getting cornered. Agree or overreach?

@TheCradleMedia Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

Unimpeded passage: sanctioned Iranian tanker reaches destination openly —— According to Fars News Agency: • An Iranian sanctioned VLCC supertanker, listed under US sanctions, entered Iranian waters after sailing through international waters and the Strait of Hormuz with its tracking system fully active and without any attempt at concealment. • The vessel, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of crude oil, kept its tracking system on throughout the journey, effectively challenging US sanctions and threats, and reached its destination without any interference. • The United States had previously claimed it would not allow any vessel to move from international waters toward Iran’s coastline or dock at its ports.

@Coinvo Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 A sanctioned Iranian supertanker just broke the U.S. Navy blockade at Hormuz Strait.

@AdityaRajKaul Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

Iranian sanctioned supertanker crosses Hormuz Strait despite US block* A sanctioned Iranian supertanker has crossed the Strait ⁠of Hormuz towards Iran’s ⁠Imam Khomeini Port despite a US block, Iran’s Fars ‌News Agency reported. The Very Large Crude Carrier was capable ⁠of carrying two million ⁠barrels of crude, but it was ⁠not clear ⁠if the tanker ⁠was returning with its cargo on board or ‌was empty, the report added.

@clashreport Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

Iran's Fars: A sanctioned Iranian supertanker sailed openly (with its tracker on) through the Strait of Hormuz into Iran without interference.

@AJENews Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

BREAKING: An ⁠Iranian sanctioned supertanker has crossed the Strait ⁠of Hormuz ​towards Iran's ⁠Imam Khomeini Port despite ​a US block, Iran's Fars ‌News Agency reported. 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/lxeq57?update=…

@ShaykhSulaiman Letting a food ship pass while tracking the crude isn’t weakness, it’s messaging: escalation is selective, not absent.

BREAKING: A sanctioned Iranian supertanker sailed openly with its tracker on through the Strait of Hormuz into Iran without interference. - Fars

@Sino_Market If China pulls this lever, it accelerates exactly what DC wants: a faster, more expensive, but fully domestic clean energy stack.

🇨🇳🇺🇸China Weighs Curbs on Solar Equipment Exports to U.S. China is holding initial talks with solar equipment makers on potentially restricting exports of advanced panel manufacturing technology to the U.S., according to sources, though no rules have been finalized. The move could affect expansion plans by firms including Tesla and widen tech export controls as China dominates over 80% of global solar supply chains. Discussions include possible limits on high-end HJT equipment shipments, with officials engaging suppliers such as Suzhou Maxwell Technologies (mktnews.com/flashDetail.ht…)

@REDBOXINDIA If China pulls this lever, it accelerates exactly what DC wants: a faster, more expensive, but fully domestic clean energy stack.

CHINA CONSIDERING RESTRICTIONS ON EXPORTS OF SOLAR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT TO UNITED STATES, SOURCES SAY REUTERS

@FirstSquawk If China pulls this lever, it accelerates exactly what DC wants: a faster, more expensive, but fully domestic clean energy stack.

CHINA IS THINKING ABOUT LIMITING SOLAR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT EXPORTS TO THE UNITED STATES, ACCORDING TO SOURCES.

The market is pricing oil. But the real story is: Who controls the next decade of energy flows? What do you think, temporary disruption, or permanent realignment?

Scorecard: Winners: US exporters (LNG + crude) Shipping firms outside sanctions risk Alternative suppliers (Brazil, Guyana, etc.) Losers: Iran (forced into costly workarounds) China (higher geopolitical exposure) Asia buyers (paying volatility premium)

Everyone’s watching $100 oil. Almost no one is watching who’s quietly winning. The Hormuz disruption isn’t just tightening supply — it’s rewiring global energy flows in real time. And the biggest beneficiary? The United States.