Jack Prandelli

💥 Everyone is asking when the Iran-US oil war ends That's the wrong question 18 days in. Hormuz flows down 75%. Gulf infrastructure burning. And yet US equities are barely lower, gold is down, and markets are pricing this like a 3 week story. The tail risk of a prolonged conflict is being seriously underpriced and there's a bigger question nobody is asking: What's actually left when it does end? In my latest article I cover 8 sections: 1️⃣Why April resolution is unlikely (but not impossible)? 2️⃣ Infrastructure damage that takes months to fix, not days 3️⃣ The storage crisis 4️⃣ Why US shale can't replace Gulf crude 5️⃣ Transit numbers, SPR releases, and the Iran wildcard 6️⃣ Oil prices scenarios 7️⃣ What production looks like post-conflict ? 8️⃣ How to position? The war may fast end but the oil crisis doesn’t. Full Article here👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #oott #energy

The risk of a prolonged conflict is being seriously underpriced and there's a bigger question nobody is asking: What's actually left when it does end? In my latest article I cover 8 sections: 1️⃣Why April resolution is unlikely (but not impossible)? 2️⃣ Infrastructure damage that takes months to fix, not days 3️⃣ The storage crisis 4️⃣ Why US shale can't replace Gulf crude 5️⃣ Transit numbers, SPR releases, and the Iran wildcard 6️⃣ Oil prices scenarios 7️⃣ What production looks like post-conflict ? 8️⃣ How to position? The war may fast end but the oil crisis doesn’t. Full Article here👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #oott #energy

🚨 This Is What’s at Stake A single chokepoint controls a massive share of global energy flows: • 38% of seaborne crude oil • 29% of LPG • 19% of refined products • 19% of LNG • 13% of chemicals (incl. fertilizers) ➡️ 20 mb/d of oil equivalent flows daily global energy flows are under attack

@JoKiddo thanks for sharing it

@jackprandelli My German girlfriend told me that Germany will just get their energy from nuclear France - as if there is no problem for their country….

🇷🇺Putin just said the quiet part loud 🇪🇺"Europe is lacking brains" Brutal, But look at the timing. -Ras Laffan offline 3-5 years -Hormuz 4 ships in 48 hours -Qatar LNG gone for every European buyer -Von der Leyen no to Russian gas And Putin's sitting on a pipeline that still works. He doesn't need to fire a single missile at Europe. He just needs to wait ♟️ #Germany shut its nuclear plants. Closed its Russian pipeline. Refused to join the coalition. Now stares down an energy winter with no exit. Putin didn't create this crisis. But he's watching Europe walk straight into it with zero leverage and zero alternatives. "Economic decisions made by politicians with no connection to the economy." 📩 I break down exactly what this means for markets every week in my newsletter. Link in bio

@jackprandelli I would wait on fort know audit 👀

While gold sells off on margin calls... This chart explains who wins when the dust settles 🇺🇸 US: 8,133 tonnes 🇩🇪 Germany: 3,352 tonnes 🇮🇹 Italy: 2,452 tonnes 🇫🇷 France: 2,437 tonnes 🇨🇳 China: 2,262 tonnes Notice something? The countries with the most gold are the same ones best positioned to rebuild after this crisis. Gold doesn't pay yield. But in a world where energy infrastructure is burning and currencies are under pressure It's the last asset nobody can sanction. ♟️ Japan sits on 846 tonnes. Their LNG supply is obliterated. Their refineries can't get crude. 846 tonnes of gold is looking very smart right now. The shortterm tape is ugly The long term thesis just got stronger🥇 📩 Subscribe to my Newsletter link in my bio

@Beleggershulp remember that usa is the biggest producer

Natural Gas Force Majeur

@KUNGFLUTARIFFS_ @grok kpler

@jackprandelli @Grok: Give me the direct weblink to the application that this individual is using here. TYFYATTM - KFT

🚢4 ships in 48 hours That's what's left of the world's most critical energy corridor. 3 empty crude tankers and 1 LPG carrier. (All sanctioned, All one-way, All heading out) Nobody is going in ☠️ 20mb/day gone Ras Laffan gone And the ships still moving? Sanctioned Iranian and Chinese vessels slipping through while allied tankers sit anchored offshore. Iran controls who moves and who doesn't. This isn a blockade 🛢️ 4 ships in 48 hours. The number that should be on every front page but isn't. 📩 I cover what the headlines miss 3x week, before it moves markets. Subscribe to my newsletter, Link in bio

Every country on this list just lost their gas supplier for 3-5 years 🇨🇳 China: 19.7M tonnes gone 🇮🇳 India: 11.7M tonnes gone 🇹🇼 Taiwan: 8.0M chip fabs at risk 🇵🇰 Pakistan: 7.0M lights out territory 🇰🇷 South Korea: 6.9M no alternatives 🇮🇹 Italy: 4.8M said no to Russian gas Here's what just happened at Ras Laffan: Trains S4 & S6 destroyed 12.8M tonnes/year offline Repair timeline 3 to 5 YEARS And the buyers? Already starved of crude through Hormuz. Now losing gas on top of it ⚡ This is the systematic destruction of the global energy supply chain🛢️💥 I break down exactly what this means for markets 3x week in my newsletter. 📩 Link in bio. Don't miss it

@im_goomba did you know that exxon is a shareholder ?

@jackprandelli What do you mean it’s a twist? Iran literally said they would go after US assets and interests.

Qatar's LNG trains S4 and S6 confirmed damaged and out of service. 3 to 5 YEARS of repairs🚨 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG are Offline. And here's the twist nobody expected: ExxonMobil holds 34% of Train S4 and 30% of Train S6. An American oil major just took a direct hit from Iranian missiles. #LNG #Qatar

@SailingAssets 🎯

@jackprandelli No crude in the East. No refining in the West. Perfect inefficiency.

Europe and the US spent a decade closing refineries Asia spent a decade building them Seemed smart at the time. Now Hormuz is closed & Ras Laffan is burning. The crude can't move east The refining capacity doesn't exist in the west. Nobody planned for this. 👇 West: no refining capacity ❌ East: refining capacity, no crude ❌ The war didn't create this problem. It just exposed how broken the system already was. This is what energy policy built on assumptions looks like when reality hits. 🛢️💥 link for the full article here: themerchantsnews.substack.com/p/what-happens…

@Douglas94342267 also

@jackprandelli The real question is Helium.

@HighPlainsFella 🎯

@jackprandelli Rookie oopsie, or knows something? x.com/QuiverQuant/st…

@RobertGCart seems so

@jackprandelli No twist, Iran knew what they were doing!

@bfry1981 @joshrogin let's see

@jackprandelli @joshrogin Iran is winning the economic and political warfare. My thread on some of the bigger-picture issues not being talked about enough when it comes to this Iran, U.S., Israel war metastasizing before our very eyes x.com/i/status/20285…

@TheRogueSignals good point

@jackprandelli The real impact may not be fully priced yet. 12.8 mtpa offline for 3–5 years equals roughly ~3–4% of global LNG supply removed structurally. Markets can handle temporary outages. Multi-year infrastructure loss is different. Full breakdown below

@ajayrotti @TheNavroopSingh 🧐

@jackprandelli @TheNavroopSingh What if it isnt the twist that no one expected but the actual reason for those being the target ???

@peoples_vox yes

@jackprandelli This is major change.

🚨BREAKING: Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. For up to 5 years. Here's what the CEO just told In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy just confirmed the damage from Iran's attack on Ras Laffan. It's worse than anyone thought. → 2 out of 14 LNG trains damaged → 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities damaged → 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG offline for 3-5 years → 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity gone → $20 billion annual revenue loss → $26 billion in damaged facilities (the CEO said they "should not be attacked") QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on long term LNG supply contracts to: → Italy → Belgium → South Korea → China For up to 5 years. Additional exports declining: → Condensates: Down 24% → LPG: Down 13% → Naphtha: Down 6% → Sulphur: Down 6% → Helium: Down 14% The damaged trains: → Train S4 and S6: 30% owned by ExxonMobil, rest by QatarEnergy Production cannot restart until hostilities cease. What this means? 12.8 million tonnes per year = 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity. 17% of its capacity just disappeared for 3-5 years. Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China: These countries had long-term contracts with Qatar. Force majeure means those contracts are suspended. They now have to compete in spot markets for replacement cargoes. Against each other. And against every other buyer scrambling for LNG. $20 billion per year in lost revenue for Qatar. $26 billion in facilities damaged. The only country with capacity to absorb Qatari volumes at scale is the United States. I wrote a full breakdown on how this shift benefits US LNG producers and which stocks are positioned to win from Qatar's structural supply loss👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #Iran #Qatar #LNG