Rami Ayari

There's only one real road to de-escalation, and it runs through the Oval Office. Iran is not going to back down--their entire strategy is predicated on this. Israel will keep going until they are told to stop. This is Trump's call. When he wants it to end, it will end.

"UK Trade Minister Chris Bryant said one of his counterparts in the Gulf complained to him on Wednesday that the US “don’t know what they’re doing.” bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

Israel's Prime Minister, Netanyahu: "there has to be a ground component" against Iran Once again, Israeli leadership confirms that it determines whether and where American troops fight and die in Iran

BREAKING: 4000 additional US service members specialized for amphibious assault and landing operations deployed to the Middle East. -Newsmax

7% of Americans support ground operations in Iran. Let me repeat that. 7%. You can’t do anything with 7% support, let alone taking the very serious step of putting American troops in harms way.

QatarEnergy CEO and Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad bin Sherida Al-Kaabi says the fallout from the Iranian attack is enormous: Three affected facilities are tied to about $20 billion in lost annual revenue, while rebuilding the damaged infrastructure would mean replacing assets that cost roughly $26 billion to construct. The attack damaged 2 of Qatar’s 14 LNG trains and 1 of its 2 GTL plants. The export hit is equally severe: Qatar’s LNG exports are down 17%, condensate exports are expected to fall by about 24%, and LPG exports by 13%. Al-Kaabi warned Qatar may have to declare force majeure on long-term contracts for up to five years, adding that any restoration of production first depends on an end to hostilities.

Civilians bear brunt of the reckless war as conflict continues to spread in Middle East. @volker_turk calls for renewed diplomatic efforts to pull region back from the brink, prevent further loss of civilian life & destruction of vital infrastructure. ohchr.org/en/press-relea…

BREAKING: France says it will double its humanitarian aid to Lebanon to €17m ($19.7m) as Israel attacks devastate the country 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fs4nzb?update=…

La localisation du porte-avions français Charles de Gaulle rendue possible grâce à l'imprudence d'un marin utilisant l'application de running Strava, rapporte Le Monde. En faisant son footing sur le pont, il révélait la présence du navire.

17% of Qatar's natural gas exports were just eliminated. For years. Trump has lost control of this war. It has no purpose. No endgame. It needs to stop.

The developments of the past 24h may prove a turning point in this war: Israel and the US's escalation by striking the Qatari-Iranian Pars field, the strikes against Asaluyeh, Iran's massive retaliation against oil and gas installations in Saudi, Qatar and beyond, which shot up oil prices, the near downing of a F35 by Iran and Secretary Bessent's revelations that the US may unsanction Iranian oil on the waters to bring down oil prices. As I said already on the fourth day, the US has lost control of this war. It had a Plan A, but no Plan B. Plan A came crashing down after it became clear that the assassination of Ayatollah Khamenei neither brought the implosion of the theocracy nor their surrender. As a result, the US is increasingly letting the Israelis drive the bus, by virtue of them having a plan, even though their plan does not serve US interests (the Israelis want to prolong the war to degrade Iran's entire industrial base, regardless of what happens to energy markets, Trump's presidency, and security in the region as a whole.) The Israeli strike against the Pars field, coordinated with the US, is particularly important because it violated a promise Trump made to Qatar back in September 2025 - Israel would no longer be allowed to strike Qatar. But that gas field is shared by both Iran and Qatar, hence it was an attack on Qatar as well as on Iran. With US coordination. This - and the impact on energy markets - may explain why Trump took to social media to blame Israel for the attack and publicly forbade them from striking further energy fields. But Bessent's comments about unsanctioning Iranian oil on the waters are the most important. Though it's primarily done to push down oil prices, it appears that we may have nevertheless entered sanctions relief territory out of necessity. I wrote several days ago that Tehran is very unlikely to end the war even if the US pulls out and declares victory. Iran has leverage for the first time in years and will seek to trade it in. It has publicly demanded a closing of US bases, reparations, and sanctions relief in order to stop shooting at Israel and open the Straits. The first may happen over time anyway, the second is highly unlikely, but the third - sanctions relief - may become more plausible as the cost of the war rises, and escalation strategies become increasingly suicidal for Trump. As I have explained, a return to the pre-war status quo is unacceptable to Tehran because it will not only be in a degraded state, but also in a continuously weakening state because its pathways to sanctions relief have been blown up. If Iran weakens further, it will only invite further American and Israeli aggression, Tehran believes, because it was the false perception of Iranian weakness that created the "window of opportunity" to attack Iran in the first place. Sanctions relief is, as a result, a necessity to ensure that the war doesn't restart. But here is where Iran may miscalculate. Trump may not yet have reached the point at which the cost of continuing the war is so high that he opts to offer sanctions exemptions to select countries to get Iran's agreement to open the straits and end the war. He will likely only reach that point once it's clear that his base is starting to turn against the war in a serious manner. At that point, Trump will face a time crunch. He will need a narrative in which he declares himself a victor - with his base believing it. Absent the ability to convince his base that he has won, the benefit of ending the war may not outweigh the cost of continuing it. And as soon as his base starts turning against the war, his ability to convince them of his victory starts to wane. Mindful of the fact that negotiating this end may take an estimated 7-10 days at best, which is different from the 24 hours or so it took to negotiate the unconditional ceasefire in June, Tehran may overplay its hand and only agree to enter these negotiations at a point at which the length of the negotiations may exceed the time Trump has left to convincingly declare victory and provide himself a face saving exit. Getting the timing of this right will be very difficult for both the US and Iran. Israel will do all it can to sabotage any such off-ramp, including by killing Iranian's negotiatiors. But it will become increasingly clear - if it hasn't already - to Trump that all his escalatory options only deepen the lose-lose situation he has put himself in. That's why Trump should never have listened to Netanyahu in the first place.

Prices over the past month European gas: +93% Heating oil: +68% Brent crude: +52% Crude oil: +45% Gasoline: +39% Coal: +20%

At #Bahrain’s request, the #UNSC will hold urgent closed consultations today at 4 pm (NY time) regarding the situation in the Middle East.

Judges are largely finding that criticism of Israel/Zionism is 1st amendment protected speech, not antisemitic. Ditto for slogans like “From the river to the sea” Major blows to pro-Israel lawfare operation theguardian.com/us-news/2026/m…

Day 1: it's going to take a couple of days Day 20: ok we need 200 billion dollars

Qatar’s prime minister has said Iran’s claims that it is targeting US bases is “unacceptable and unjustified”, after it attacked Ras Laffan gas plant yesterday and called on Iran to stop expanding the conflict in the region.

Have been polling versions of this question since September, this is the most dramatic it’s been. If Dems try to out-Israel Republicans, they lose because 10% of Dems say they won’t vote. If they say they’ll reduce support to Israel they win by a lot because Republicans flip

This is a disaster of historic proportions. New poll shows that US voters believe Trump and Vance's war on Iran benefits Israel more than the US at a margin of *27 points.* And the poll was conducted nearly two weeks ago. Imagine what the numbers are now?

BREAKING: Russia says strike that wounded TV crew in Lebanon not 'accidental' 🔴 LIVE updates: aje.news/fs4nzb?update=…

Slovenian PM’s letter