Gregory Brew

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Gregory Brew

Gregory Brew

@gbrew24

Senior Analyst, Iran and Oil @EurasiaGroup. Formerly @ISSYale. Author of "The Struggle for Iran" and "Petroleum and Progress in Iran." Views my own.

가입일 Ekim 2012
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Iran has two important components of its nuclear program still remaining. The first is the HEU stockpile. The second is the indigenous knowledge base. Getting the first is tough. Getting the second is impossible. The Iranians will always have the ability to rebuild. Unless there's a deal.
Margaret Brennan@margbrennan

"...you cannot unlearn what you've learned..." IAEA's ⁦@rafaelmgrossi⁩ explains the UN's view on the sophisticated state of Iran's nuclear capabilities now v 2015 JCPOA-era program, & his view that bombing alone won't destroy nuclear capabilities. ⁦@FaceTheNation

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
To sum up: this is now officially a macro shock that will be felt across multiple commodities and sectors. It will raise the average oil price band for the year $15-20 higher than where it was in February. Same (or worse) for natural gas prices. It will show up in CPI. It will move CB policy (it may have already). But it's also a strategic earthquake. Old assumptions will be tossed out the window. Uncertainty will reign. Hedging will be the order of the day. Old world dead. New worlds struggle to be born. Watch out for monsters (and missiles).
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Finally: where does this place the GCC? They can't tolerate an end to the war that leaves Iran emboldened--but they likely won't have much of a choice if Trump de-escalates while Hormuz remains contested. Moreover, they will now face the very real possibility that another war like this breaks out the next time the US (or more likely Israel) attacks Iran. They have no good options.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
There's only one real road to de-escalation, and it runs through the Oval Office. Iran is not going to back down--their entire strategy is predicated on this. Israel will keep going until they are told to stop. This is Trump's call. When he wants it to end, it will end.
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Gregory Brew 리트윗함
Victoria J. Taylor
Victoria J. Taylor@VictoriaT_·
As the last permanent DAS for Iraq/Iran (until May 2025), I agree with this 💯. My level of access and influence declined precipitously during this admin. I read the room and moved on. They have not named a permanent replacement for me.
Alan Eyre@AlanEyre1

Yes, this administration has gutted Middle East experience at the State Department, but ... ...it doesn't really matter how much/little expertise the current State Department has, because it is totally out of the policy loop. apnews.com/article/iran-s…

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
"The Strait of Hormuz will become a source of geopolitical risk for a long time — a live wire down the middle of the global economy...From now on traders will act based on the knowledge that Iran might at any time attack." Excellent stuff from @EurasiaGroup chairman Cliff Kupchan. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/…
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
"Stranded" isn't really an accurate description. Iran barrels usually take a long time to make it to their final destination. There's been a large volume on the water for months now. The difference is that this would make it easier for anyone to buy them at market prices.
Tala Ramadan@TalaRamadan

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. may soon remove sanctions from Iranian oil that is stranded on tankers to help lift global supplies and reduce prices, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday.

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
The West Coast is part of Asia as far as the oil market is concerned. It is getting hit very hard right now. (It's also the only part of the country that imports ME crude in large volumes).
Matthew Zeitlin@MattZeitlin

You know those "dubai physical barrels" you hear so much about? Well, in California, they're exposed to that price because the asian refiners that the state imports gasoline and components from are buying Gulf oil @weakinstrument heatmap.news/energy/califor…

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Netanyahu: "Iran can no longer enrich uranium or produce missiles." I have no doubt the first is true--Iran was not enriching when this war began--though if the latter is true now, it is unlikely to remain true for long.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Iran's air defenses have been heavily degraded, but they are not *gone* and if you fly hundreds of combat missions, eventually a battery or MANPAD is going to get lucky and score a hit.
Natasha Bertrand@NatashaBertrand

Breaking from @halbritz @OrenCNN : A US F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at US air base in the Middle East after it was struck by what is believed to be Iranian fire, according to two sources familiar with the matter. Capt. Tim Hawkins, a spokesman for US Central Command, said the fifth-generation stealth jet was “flying a combat mission over Iran” when it was forced to make an emergency landing. Hawkins said the aircraft landed safely, and the incident is under investigation “The aircraft landed safely, and the pilot is in stable condition,” Hawkins added. The incident would be the first time Iran has hit a US aircraft in the war started in late February. Both the US and Israel are flying F-35s in the conflict; the aircraft costs upwards of $100 million.

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
We're going to force Iran to capitulate but we're also going to let them sell their oil to whoever wants it for $100+ a barrel.
Gregory Brew tweet media
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Israel bombed Iran's south Pars gas field. Trump reportedly signed off. Iran signaled it would strike major Gulf energy facilities in return. Hours later, a ballistic missile struck Qatar's gas refinery at Ras Laffan. It is in flames. Trump is now opposed to further attacks on Iranian energy facilities, per WSJ.
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
If this is what happens when a component in their principal gas field is struck, how do we think they might respond to the destruction/occupation of their principal crude export terminal?
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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Just so the sequencing is clear: Trump tried to threaten the Iranians via an attack on their key gas field; the Iranians responded by inflicting significant damage on Qatar's LNG facilities; and Trump is now, for all intents and purposes, backing down. x.com/gbrew24/status…
Gregory Brew@gbrew24

Israel bombed Iran's south Pars gas field. Trump reportedly signed off. Iran signaled it would strike major Gulf energy facilities in return. Hours later, a ballistic missile struck Qatar's gas refinery at Ras Laffan. It is in flames. Trump is now opposed to further attacks on Iranian energy facilities, per WSJ.

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Gregory Brew
Gregory Brew@gbrew24·
Trump putting as much distance between himself and the South Pars attack as he can. Seems to rationalize Iran's response (to a degree) while condemning its attack on Qatar. Promises no further Israeli attacks on South Pars. But threatens the field's total destruction if Iran attacks Qatar again.
Gregory Brew tweet media
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