RubiconDerivatives

573 posts

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RubiconDerivatives

RubiconDerivatives

@RubiconTrading

SPX options/ NQ futures. Architect of multiple OB indicators marking high probability starting points of institutional order flow

United States 가입일 Nisan 2025
275 팔로잉193 팔로워
고정된 트윗
RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
Session Level Indicator
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フ ォ リ ス
フ ォ リ ス@follis_·
I will give money back to the market when we start trending again Happens every time I am good at trading ranges I am not good at trading trends
moontography@themoontography

@follis_ I think anyone who's followed you for a while know how much of a goat you are at ranges. It's actually incredible watching you do it, *however* I do look forward to seeing how/if/whether you adjust whenever we finally get a trending environment 😇 gut says you'll do okay

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LoA
LoA@Lordofacca·
Down
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Aksel Kibar, CMT
Aksel Kibar, CMT@TechCharts·
We around 1000 people that follow each other are seeing a H&S pattern. Algos keep pushing the variety of the same chart to each other. And then we think "everyone is seeing the pattern" it will not work. Let me tell you this: technical analysis is not a widely applied tool for making trading/investment decisions. Let alone in technical analysis there are so many methods such as elliott wave, indicator trading, trend following, cycle analysis, candlestick charting.... So, relax. The H&S that we are seeing is safe. It is not seen by many. We are minority here...
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Luckshury
Luckshury@Luckshuryy·
I was the same, would give money back when trends would take place. Next step was to implement a system for me to identify ASAP as to when we were goin from a range bound market to a trending one. Something like one time framing for example prevents me from getting involved within unfavourable conditions.
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Matt Pocock
Matt Pocock@mattpocockuk·
The main fatigue I'm getting with AI is communication fatigue Implementation is now crazy fast, but describing requirements is slow And pushing it faster leaves me knackered
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VolSignals
VolSignals@VolSignals·
Wow.. so far, the futures action overnight is almost exactly as prescribed in our charm data in VS3D I almost hate when it's this good because it risks anchoring you to unrealistic expectations
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Luckshury
Luckshury@Luckshuryy·
I turn 24 today, a few things I wish I got told earlier about trading: > find the boring stuff exciting > curiosity = improvement > start where your trade thesis is invalidated > always know who is paying you & why > create a deep connection with one market > execution should be boring > position sizing is the highest-leverage skill > get comfortable being uncomfortable > drawdowns exist in all profitable systems > focus on trade input instead of outcome > your edge can decay, keep monitoring > trading is probabilities, never absolutes > obsession is necessary > more tools ≠ more info I think the biggest takeaway from all of this is to remain curious, without it you will never generate any new ideas, and get stuck in horrible cycles. Be open to new ideas, don't take them at face value and be willing to dig deep enough to a point where you have data to back up your thesis.
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Hunter Jacques
Hunter Jacques@Hunter_Jacques_·
Advice from @jam_croissant from exactly a year ago (just before liberation day) from his first podcast from CBOE floor still holds true in this current environment. 0DTE options have almost zero Vega, their price is driven almost entirely by delta and gamma (actual price movement), not implied vol changes. That’s exactly why I have been avoiding holding 30/60DTE OTM puts. These have huge Vega, so even if the market drops, IV mean-reversion (crush) can destroy the premium. Exactly the way to hedge and optimize returns in the current elevated-VIX regime where longer-dated vol is expensive and prone to rapid contraction.
Hunter Jacques@Hunter_Jacques_

Karsan making a pitch for ODTEs in this IV environment so options with high Vega (like 30DTE) are more at risk of losing value as IV drops. Zero DTE (ODTE) options are better right now because they have almost no Vega. That means they’re not as affected by changes in implied volatility. So you can trade based more on actual price moves (delta, gamma)—intraday price action. 30-day options have high Vega, so when IV drops (reverts to the mean), those options lose value even if the stock doesn’t move. Vega measures how much an option’s price will change when implied volatility (IV) changes. •If Vega is high, the option’s price is more sensitive to changes in IV. •IV reflects how much the market thinks the stock will move—higher IV = higher option premiums. @jam_croissant latest podcast is a must listen.

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RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
Another miss waiting for something instead of just reading my indicator
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Rohan Paul
Rohan Paul@rohanpaul_ai·
Google proves the math for cracking Bitcoin's encryption in 9 minutes now exists — the only missing piece is the hardware. 🤯 With precomputation, an attacker could derive a private key from a public key in roughly 9 minutes. Bitcoin's average block time is 10 minutes. The core finding is precise and unsettling: Shor's algorithm can now be compiled to solve the 256-bit elliptic curve discrete logarithm problem with roughly 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates. Translated to hardware, that means fewer than half a million physical superconducting qubits, nearly a 20-fold reduction over the best prior estimates from Litinski's 2023 work. It means "on-spend" attacks, where a transaction is intercepted in the mempool and forged before confirmation, become plausible for fast-clock quantum machines. The paper introduces a critical architectural distinction. Superconducting and photonic platforms, with microsecond-scale error correction cycles, can threaten active transactions. Neutral atom and ion trap systems, two to three orders of magnitude slower, can only threaten static holdings with long-exposed keys. Approximately 6.9 million BTC sit in addresses with exposed public keys today. Around 1.7 million of those are locked in early P2PK scripts from the Satoshi era, almost certainly with lost private keys, forming a permanent multibillion-dollar quantum target. Ethereum faces distinct risks: its account model, BLS-based validator signatures, and KZG commitment scheme in data availability sampling each present separate at-rest attack surfaces. The authors validated their resource estimates using a zero-knowledge proof, a first for quantum cryptanalysis, allowing verification without revealing the attack circuit itself. The margin between quantum capability and cryptographic failure is narrowing faster than most migration timelines assume. ---- quantumai. google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf
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RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
@aw_trades_ Face rippers today and yesterday: Expect cash open to fade (yesterday to origin point, today almost not quite), then recovery of mean and expansion
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AW Trades ♛
AW Trades ♛@aw_trades_·
So fun to trade NQ right now!! Wicky, no follow through, terrible price action to trade even when setups show Anyone else or just me?
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RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
@VolSignals @oppugnantone I am infatuated with your service, with volatility, it is extremely interesting, and you are hands down the online expert in this area along with @options_insight . It is without saying an entire frontier of trading mechanics all unto itself. It is also very complicated :/-
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RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
What is a higher time frame gap? Its a footprint of a large set of orders that were in a rush. Verify it with footprint receipts. Verify it with gamma levels. Match charm boundaries with all of the above. People blow off TA as if it is not based on reality. Well, you are looking at the wrong TA, or someone that does not know what they are doing then.
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VolSignals
VolSignals@VolSignals·
@RubiconTrading @oppugnantone the difference is that all forms of TA are making educated guesses using priors this, is not that- and the difference when properly integrated is career-making
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RubiconDerivatives
RubiconDerivatives@RubiconTrading·
Wrong. They are simplified versions of what is going on. If you actually know TA, which you and your RTM cohort have explicitly admitted you do not, and studied the correlations between footprint/order flow, TPO, DOM resting orders....it is all the same. Happy to share mountains of documentation to this effect. It is no doubt re-assuring to rely on order history, gamma levels, Jack and Jill and Jane and whoever is trading RTM signals to see verified prints...but if you know TA and the clues that approximate these (and in most cases actually represent these, even predict these before they happen), why pay a Tesla Model Y to Porsche Turbo monthly car payment to someone else??
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